A Case Study Regarding the Role of Economics in Democratic Transitions
Ms. Wood discussed the role of economic interests in democratic transitions especially with respect to the end of the Cold War. She examines two cases of El Salvador and South Africa especially with this post focusing on the former. The country represents one of the few times in Latin America that the transition to democracy came from the bottom-up with the elites in control eventually agreeing to a democratic compromise along the path of neoliberal policies.
This in particular brings into the play the role of economics with respect to democratic transitions. In places where the economy is stable under authoritarian rule, there will be little leverage for democratic uprising. The Asian Tiger cases of South Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan demonstrate this from the past. Even today, the kingdom of Jordan and many Gulf States remain stable under less than democratic governments due to stronger economic and social safety nets in place. One of the larger questions in geopolitics outside of Latin America is the stability of China’s single party state if economic questions continue regarding growth and the advancement to a more consumption based economy.
In El Salvador, the elite were satisfied with the authoritarian government that catered to their interests. In the 1980’s, guerrilla warfare and an insurgency among the lower and working classes led to civil war and ultimately democratic compromise. Wood stated, “The civil war had dramatically reshaped the economic structure of the country, thereby laying the structural conditions for compromise.” This reshaping to more commercial and service sector based economy made the compromise more feasible as the Salvadoran elite’s interests were no longer being met.
An additional key point revolves around the end of an era in geopolitics—the Cold War. The ending of containment made the United States less likely to support an authoritarian regime merely because it was not communist. U.S. foreign policy shifted to the promotion of neoliberal policies which reflected the domestic debate those in El Salvador were having.
In reflecting on the region more broadly, the most stable democracies still exist where the economics are strongest and most diversified. Argentina, Chile, and Costa Rica are three locations where this is seen. On the contrary, Venezuela, Paraguay, and Nicaragua all have economic struggles and less secure democratic instructions. Specifically, Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela remains in power in a largely authoritarian regime, yet he faces millions of protesters in the streets of Caracas demanding his exit from power. While much of this anger is justifiably political, the extremely poor economic conditions within the state have only added to the tension.
The question of which influences the other more is an intriguing question—is democracy the key to a successful economy, or do the economic conditions and setup lead make democracy more or less easily attained? With the case of El Salvador, it is clear that the changing and decreasing economic conditions especially for the elite made democracy possible.