Government Reports

2018 Farm Sector Income Forecast, November

Source:  USDA ERS

Net farm income, a broad measure of profits, is forecast to decrease $9.1 billion (12.1 percent) from 2017 to $66.3 billion in 2018, after increasing $13.8 billion (22.5 percent) in 2017. Net cash farm income is forecast to decrease $8.5 billion (8.4 percent) to $93.4 billion. In inflation-adjusted 2018 dollars, net farm income is forecast to decline $10.8 billion (14.1 percent) from 2017 after increasing $13.0 billion (20.2 percent) in 2017. If realized, inflation-adjusted net farm income would be 3.3 percent above its level in 2016, which was its lowest level since 2002.

See a summary of the forecasts in the table U.S. farm sector financial indicators, 2011-2018F, or see all data tables on farm income and wealth statistics.

Net farm income and net cash farm income, 2000-18F

[In the text below, year-to-year changes in the major aggregate components of farm income are discussed only in nominaldollars unless the direction of the change is reversed when looking at the component in inflation-adjusted dollars.]

Summary Findings

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Harvest Progress

OK, While many of us feel that this picture represents how harvest has gone so far, we are not really that far behind.  The most recent Ohio Crop Weather report issued on October 9 shows corn harvest at 21%.  At this time last year we had harvested 12% of our corn while the most recent 5-year average is 17%.

Soybeans are lagging behind just a bit.  This report shows Ohio bean harvest at 30%.  This compares to 42% last year and a 5-year average of 36%.

So why do we feel we are so far behind?  Probably because we started sooner this year and have received just enough rain to prevent us from running beans many days this year.  Early reports that I am hearing have soybean yields much better than last year and good corn yields as well.

See the full report below.

Ohio September 1 Crop Forecast

Record corn and soybean yields are forecast in Ohio, according to Cheryl Turner, State Statistician, USDA, NASS, Great Lakes Region. This report is based on conditions as of September 1, 2018. Some highlights of the Crop Production Report follow:

  • Ohio’s corn yield is forecast at 188 bushels per acre, up 11 bushels from 2017 and up 8 bushels from the August forecast. If realized this would be a new record yield. Total production is forecast at 622.3 million bushels, up 12 percent from a year ago.
  • Soybean yield in Ohio is forecast at 58 bushels per acre, up 8.5 bushels from last year and up 2 bushels from last month. If realized this would be a record yield. Total production is forecast at 286.5 million bushels.
  • Nationally, corn production is forecast at 14.8 billion bushels, up 2 percent from August and up 2 percent from last year. Based on conditions as of September 1, yields are expected to average 181.3 bushels per acre, up 2.9 bushels from the August forecast and up 4.7 bushels from 2017. If realized, this will be the highest yield on record for the United States. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 81.8 million acres, unchanged from the August forecast, but down 1 percent from 2017.
  • U.S. soybean production is forecast at a record 4.69 billion bushels, up 2 percent from August and up 7 percent from last year. Based on September 1 conditions, yields are expected to average a record high 52.8 bushels per acre, up 1.2 bushels from last month and up 3.7 bushels from last year. Area for harvest in the United States is forecast at 88.9 million acres, unchanged from August but down 1 percent from 2017.

Should We Be Surprised about the U.S. Average Yield of Corn and Soybeans in 2017?

by: Scott Irwin, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics
University of Illinois

In the Crop Production report released on October 10, 2017 the USDA estimated the U.S. average yield of corn to be 171.8 bushels per acre and the average yield of soybeans to be 49.5 bushels per acre. The October yield estimates confirmed that U.S. corn and soybean yields in 2017 would be rather large by historical standards. The estimated corn and soybean yields for 2017 are the second largest ever for the U.S. The “high” yield estimates released by the USDA since August have surprised many market observers and analysts based on the perception that crop condition ratings and weather during the 2017 growing season did not support an expectation of such large yields. The purpose of this article is to examine whether those perceptions were accurate or not. …Continue Reading…

Reply: barker.41@osu.edu