Harvest Delays – Light vs. Temperature

There has been a lot of discussion about the crop yields from 2023 in Ohio, from early reports of crop stress in May and June to greater than anticipated yield values for many producers this fall. Yield reports of >110 bu/ac wheat harvested in July were reported in parts of Ohio, and better than anticipated yields in some corn and soybean fields. Harvest progress of corn has been delayed from normal for many farmers.

Many questions have been raised on the role that haze from Canadian wildfires may have played on seasonal crop growth this year. Ohio experienced three major episodes of wildfire impacts on June 6-7, June 27-29, and July 16-17, with several more days throughout the two-month period of less intense smoke-filled skies. However, looking at 2023 compared to historical trends overall radiation availability was similar to the 10-year historical average for the three CFAES research stations of Northwest, Wooster, and Western (Figure 1). Light availability was higher than normal in May through mid-June, in part due to many clear days and below average rainfall. Light availability approached normal levels throughout June and July in part due to a slight reduction during the short period of haze, but recovered to mimic the 10-year patterns observed in recent past.

Despite the short haze periods, the photons available per heat unit accumulated (PTQ or photothermal quotient) were at or above the 10-year average (0-38% greater) aside from July at Western research station (6% lower) and September at Northwest (2% below normal). Generally, greater PTQ values suggest that more photosynthesis can occur in the same thermal period and could lead to greater yields.

Figure 1. Daily light integral (left) and accumulated growing degree days, base 50°F (right), and the 10-year averages for three Ohio locations of Northwest Agricultural Research Station in Custar (upper row), Western Agricultural Research Station in South Charleston (middle row), and the Ohio Agricultural Research and Development Center in Wooster (bottom row) in 2023.

Contrastingly, accumulated Growing Degree Days (GDDs) were below the 10-year average for every location this year (Figure 2). The same pattern that brought the frequent spells of wildfire smoke, northerly wind flow out of Canada, kept temperatures below average for the summer (Figure 2 – left). It is possible the cooler temperatures helped crop’s periods of water deficit better this year than in years past, but also can have contributed to the slow drydown experienced by many farmers this year.

Interesting to note, several folks have commented that this summer reminded them of the summer of 1992. Looking at that year’s temperature difference compared to average (Figure 2 – right), temperatures were cooler in 1992 than this past summer. Mt. Pinatubo erupted in June 1991 and is often pointed to as a main reason for cooler global temperatures in the year that followed. Volcanic emissions circled around the globe high in the atmosphere throughout the tropical and sub-tropical regions, reflecting and absorbing solar radiation and cooling the Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures by about 0.9-1°F.

Overall, the cooler temperatures and slower accumulation of GDDs can be the largest contributor to delayed corn harvest this year. Cooler overall conditions could have led to slightly higher than normal PTQ values for the season, which also may help explain the higher than anticipated yields in the wheat crop this summer.

Weekly Commodity Market Update

Brownfield’s Weekly Commodity update featuring former OSU Extension Ag Economist Ben Brown.

This Week’s Topics:

  • Market recap
  • Corn, soybean production estimates drop
  • Chinese soybean stock changes
  • Wheat exports
  • Record soybean crush
  • Reports to watch

Market recap (Changes on week as of Monday’s close):

  • December 2023 corn up $.02 at $4.90
  • December 2024 corn up $.01 at $5.17
  • November 2023 soybeans up $.22 at $12.86
  • November 2024 soybeans up $.05 at $12.55
  • December soybean oil up 2.97 cents at 55.90 cents/lb
  • December soybean meal up at $390.20/short ton
  • December 2023 wheat up $.05 at $5.77
  • July 2024 wheat down $.06 at $6.34
  • November WTI Crude Oil up $1.10 at $85.70/barrel

Weekly Highlights

  • US crude oil stocks excluding the strategic petroleum reserve increased 427 million gallons on the week while gasoline, distillate, and ethanol stocks all declined.
  • Ethanol production declined just slightly week over week- down 2 million gallons to 295. However, US gasoline consumption was up nearly 7% during the first week over October. With the increase in use and the moderate decline in production ethanol stocks declined 15 million gallons.
  • It was a neutral week for US ag export sales. Corn sales were roughly half what they were the week prior but slightly above all expectations while soybeans also cleared rather low expectations. Soft red winter wheat export sales continue to support the wheat complex on global price competitiveness.
  • USDA cut both US corn and soybeans national average yields in October by 0.8 and 0.5 bushels respectively. For both, the decrease in production was either partially or fully offset with declines in demand categories.
  • The most surprising number in Thursday Supply and Demand Report came from the global soybean balance sheet where a drop in Chinese beginning stocks and an increase in expected feed use helped create a bullish global ending stocks picture.
  • Open interest in Chicago corn and soybean futures and options positions increased week over week. Producer and merchants doubled their short position of corn contracts while slightly selling soybean contracts.
  • Managed money traders bought back 46.7 thousand positions of Chicago corn to shrink their net short- this was someway surprising after daily estimates had estimated they would increase their net short.
  • USDA Ag Export Inspections were bullish for soybeans while bearish for corn. At nearly 74 million bushels, soybean exports were the highest since early January.
  • The National Oilseed Processors Association reported their members crushed 165.5 million bushels of soybeans in September- setting a new record for the month of September. Soybean oil stocks fell to its lowest level since December 2014.
  • Harvest production in the US moved along this week- corn was up 11% to 45% and soybean harvest was up 19% to 43%.

Weekly Commodity Market Update

Brownfield’s Weekly Commodity update featuring former OSU Extension Ag Economist Ben Brown.

This Week’s Topics:

  • Market recap
  • Crude oil price swings
  • USDA report preview
  • Corn ending stocks
  • U.S. export positioning
  • Reports to watch

 

Market recap (Changes on week as of Monday’s close):

  • December 2023 corn flat at $4.88
  • December 2024 corn down $.01 at $5.16
  • November 2023 soybeans down $.13 at $12.64
  • November 2024 soybeans down $.17 at $12.50
  • December soybean oil down 3.5 cents at 53.93 cents/lb
  • December soybean meal down flat at $374.60/short ton
  • December 2023 wheat up $.08 at $5.72
  • July 2024 wheat up $.09 at $6.40
  • November WTI Crude Oil down $2.64 at $84.60/barrelWeekly Highlights
  • It was announced last week that the Argentina Government will expected their “soy dollar” program through October 25
  • US Crude oil stocks minus the strategic petroleum reserve fell another 93 million gallons this week along with distillate stocks, while gasoline stocks were up 272 million gallons.
  • Ethanol production was flat at 297 million gallons produced on the week using an estimated 99.9 million bushels of corn.
  • It was a solid week for agricultural export sales last week with corn and soybeans at the top end of their respective expectations and highest weekly volumes since April and January, respectively.

Reducing Soybean Harvest Losses

Soybean harvest losses result in lost income. Even under the most challenging conditions, soybean harvest losses can be reduced. Careful observation while harvesting will help identify and diagnose problems.

Recommendations for reducing harvest losses 

Shattering

  • Decrease your ground speed to 2.5–3.0 mph.
  • Plant a range of soybean maturities that are adapted to the area to help prevent all fields from being ready to harvest at the same time.
  • Begin harvesting when the beans in the earliest maturing field first reach 15% to 16% moisture.
  • Complete harvest operations before the beans and pods undergo repeated wetting and drying cycles after they have reached 13% moisture.
  • Avoid harvesting beans that are under 11% moisture when excessive shatter losses are occurring.
  • Under hot and dry conditions, harvest in the morning and in the evening when the pods and beans have picked up some moisture and avoid the heat of the day if shatter losses are excessive.
  • Reduce the speed of the reel in relation to the ground speed if the reel is flailing beans out of the pods. Beans hitting the combine’s windshield is an obvious sign that the reel speed needs to be reduced.

Lodging

  • Decrease your ground speed to 2.5–3.0 mph.
  • Position the cutter bar as close to the ground as possible.
  • Angle the pickup fingers on the reel back slightly to pull the lodged plants more aggressively to the cutter bar. Reduce the angle of the fingers if the plants are riding over the top of the reel.
  • Move the reel axle forward so that it is 9–12 inches ahead of the cutter bar.
  • Contact the manufacturer for specific recommendations if using an air-assisted reel in lodged soybeans. Moving the reel forward to pick up lodged plants decreases the performance of air-assisted reels. Pivot the drop tubes above the crop if this option is available or remove the entire air manifold and drop tube assembly.
  • Operate the reel as low as necessary to pick up lodged plants without causing them to ride over the top of the reel. Raise the reel if this happens.
  • Install crop lifters on the cutter bar in conditions of severe lodging.
  • When the plants are lodged in one direction, use crop lifters, and travel at a 20- to 25-degree angle to the direction of lodging. Alternatively, harvest the lodged plants traveling opposite to the direction they are leaning.
  • Increase the reel speed relative to the ground speed. It may be challenging to maintain the correct ground and reel speed combination in lodged beans with brittle pods. When ground speed is too fast relative to reel speed, the cutter bar will ride over some plants. When the reel speed is too fast relative to ground speed, the reel may shatter the pods. The reel should run 10% to 25% faster than ground speed under ideal conditions. However, in lodged beans, increase the reel speed incrementally up to a maximum of 50% faster than the ground speed. If the reel is causing pods to shatter, decrease the reel speed to the point when the shattering stops. If the cutter bar rides over lodged plants, decrease your ground speed.

Green stems

  • It is critical to continue harvesting soybeans having green stems even though it requires slower travel speeds and closer attention to cutter bar maintenance, reel speed and position, and threshing adjustments. Waiting for the stems to dry down will lead to large shatter losses.
  • If shatter losses are excessive, consider combining earlier in the morning or later into the evening when the pods have regained some moisture and are less brittle. However, this may increase plugging problems.
  • Reduce your ground speed to 2.5–3.0 mph if necessary. This will reduce shatter losses and plugging at the cutter bar by providing a crisp sideways cut.
  • Harvest at a 20- to 25-degree angle to the rows. This will improve cutter bar performance and provide more even feeding of the crop into the threshing cylinder or rotor. This may be the single most beneficial practice.
  • Draper headers should also reduce plugging problems when harvesting soybeans with green stems as they provide more uniform feeding into the threshing cylinder or rotor.
  • If the cutter bar is plugging, inspect and repair all identified problems. Check that the speed of the knife is correct and that drive mechanisms such as belts are not slipping. Make sure that the knife is in proper register with the guards. Rotate the knife through one complete cycle and make sure that the tips of the knife sections are centered on a guard at the beginning of a cycle and end up centered on a guard at the end of the cycle.
  • Maintain the reel speed at 10–25% faster than the ground speed. Fore and aft reel position is important to reducing slug feeding. Generally, positioning the reel as close to the auger as possible promotes even feeding into the combine.
  • Separating problems result from worn parts on the cylinder or rotor and improper cylinder or rotor clearance or speed settings. The separating equipment must be in good condition to handle soybeans with green or tough stems. Adjustments made to the cylinder or rotor clearance and speed is a balancing act between separating losses and seed damage and split beans. Make one adjustment at a time and inspect the clean grain tank to determine your progress toward minimizing separating losses and maximizing seed quality.

Short plants with low pods

  • Position the cutter bar as close to the ground as possible. Check and adjust the skid shoes on the bottom of the header to lower the cutter bar. You may need to increase the angle of the header to lower the front of the cutter bar (a 3-degree angle is a good starting point). This is a balancing act, as too much of an angle may increase the potential to pick up soil and stones leading to more broken guards and knife sections and cause cut plants and loose beans to build up on the cutter bar. Too flat of an angle may leave unharvested pods on the stubble due to a higher cutting height.
  • Purchase an air-assisted reel, wind system, or an air bar as the air stream produced by this equipment effectively moves short plants and loose beans and pods to the auger or belt. Follow the manufacturers recommendations for positioning the outlets on the drop tubes to maximize performance.
  • Remove the stone guard on the cutter bar if it is preventing short plants, loose beans, and pods from moving to the auger or belt and you do not have an air-assisted reel.
  • Harvest on a slight angle (15 to 20 degrees) in fields planted in 15- or 30-inch rows. This will usually help the short plants feed into the combine more uniformly.
  • The position of the reel will be critical to reducing gathering losses when harvesting short plants. With auger headers, positioning the reel as close to the auger as possible provides the most uniform feeding under most conditions. However, you may need to experiment with fore and aft reel position with very short plants. Lowering the reel is recommended when plants are short to prevent the plants and beans from building up on the cutter bar. The tips of the reel fingers should be about 1.6 cm above the top of the guards or the header floor.
  • Set the speed of the reel about 10–25% faster than the ground speed and adjust as necessary to improve feeding.
  • Set the speed of the belts on draper headers fast enough to assure plant material isn’t building up on the cutter bar.
  • Experiment with your ground speed to find the sweet spot where the cut plants are feeding well into the feeder house and the stubble is cut cleanly and uniformly.
  • Reduce shatter losses by harvesting in the morning or evening when relative humidity is higher.

Weekly Commodity Market Update

Brownfield’s Weekly Commodity update featuring former OSU Extension Ag Economist Ben Brown.

This Week’s Topics:

  • Market recap
  • U.S. grain stocks adjustments
  • U.S. harvest
  • Corn and soybean storage
  • Reports to watch

Market recap (Changes on week as of Monday’s close):

  • December 2023 corn up $.07 at $4.88
  • December 2024 corn up $.08 at $5.17
  • November 2023 soybeans down $.20 at $12.77
  • November 2024 soybeans up $.06 at $12.67
  • December soybean oil flat at 57.43 cents/lb
  • December soybean meal down $15.50 at $374.30/short ton
  • December 2023 wheat down $.25 at $5.64
  • July 2024 wheat down $.12 at $6.31
  • November WTI Crude Oil down $2.38 at $87.24/barrel

Weekly Highlights

  • For the most recent week of data- US crude oil stocks were down (-91 mil. gals) while US gasoline (+43.1 mil. gal.), Distillate (16.7 mil. gal.) and ethanol (16.7 mil. gal.) were all up.
  • Ethanol production rebounded to 297 million gallons produced on the week using an estimated 99.9 million bushels of corn.
  • US Ag Export sales were up for most commodities week over week including corn, soybeans, grain sorghum, and all wheats. US wheat sales were bullish coming in above pre-report estimates.
  • It was the third consecutive week producers and merchants decreased their net short in Chicago futures and options positions by more than 40%- this week 49%. Producers and merchants also reduced the net long in soybeans for the fourth consecutive week.
  • Managed money traders of Chicago commodities were mixed. They were net buyers of wheats and net sellers of corn and soybeans.
  • Weekly ag export inspections were down week over week for corn and wheat, but up week over week for soybeans and grain sorghum. All were within pre-report trade expectations.
  • US Grain stocks on September 1 were all within trade expectations but toward the top end for soybeans and below the average trade guess for corn. Both corn and soybean stocks were down from September 1, 2022.
  • The quarterly Hogs and Pigs report showed that there were 74.3 million hogs and pigs in the US- up slightly from last September.
  • Soybeans crushed for crude oil in August was 169 million bushels- down from 183 million in July, 175 million last August and pre-report expectations of 171.6 million bushels.
  • Corn crushed in August totaled 490 million bushels- below July 2023 but up 1% from August 2022. Corn for fuel alcohol at 443 million bushels, was down 3% from July but up 3% from last August.
  • US corn harvest is now 23% complete with corn crop conditions showing some slight improvement as combines roll along. Weekly increases were pretty consistent across the country.
  • US soybean harvest is now 23% complete up 11% week over week. Conditions improved on the week after declining last week.
  • 40% of the Winter wheat crop has been planted so far- slightly ahead last years pace but behind the average pace.

Ohio Crop Progress

Source: USDA

Crop maturity accelerated under last week’s warm and dry conditions, according to Ben Torrance, State Statistician, USDA NASS, Ohio Field Office. Topsoil moisture conditions were rated 6 percent very short, 49 percent short, and 45 percent adequate. Statewide, the average temperature for the week ending on September 24 was 63.4 degrees, 2.0 degrees above normal. Weather stations recorded an average of 0.09 inches of precipitation, 0.64 inches below average. There were 6.5 days suitable for fieldwork during the week ending September 24.

Last week’s field activities included hay bailing, manure application, lime spreading, and drainage tile installation. Limited instances of tar spot fungus in corn stands were reported in west-central portions of the State. Seventyseven percent of corn was in or past dent, 40 percent was mature, and 2 percent was harvested. Corn for silage was 59 percent harvested. Fifty-two percent of soybeans were dropping leaves. Corn and soybean condition were 72 and 68 percent good to excellent, respectively. Third cuttings of alfalfa hay and other dry hay were 95 and 80 percent complete, respectively. Fourth cuttings of alfalfa hay were 63 percent complete. Winter wheat was 3 percent planted. Pasture and range condition was rated 56 percent good to excellent, down from the previous week.

Weekly Commodity Market Update

Brownfield’s Weekly Commodity update featuring former OSU Extension Ag Economist Ben Brown.

This Week’s Topics:

  • Market recap
  • U.S. harvest overview
  • U.S. wheat planting
  • Ukraine production estimate up
  • The Fed holds interest rates steady… but
  • Reports to watch

Market recap (Changes on week as of Monday’s close):

  • December 2023 corn up $.10 at $4.81
  • November soybeans down $.19 at $12.97
  • October soybean oil down 3.64 cents at 58.75 cents/lb
  • October soybean meal up $1.60 at $392.00/short ton
  • December 2023 wheat down $.02 at $5.89
  • July 2024 wheat up $.03 at $6.43
  • September WTI Crude Oil up $0.36 at $89.62/barrelWeekly Highlights
  • US energy stocks dropped across the board this week: crude oil (-90 million gallons), gasoline (35 million gallons), and distillate supplies (-120 million gallons).
  • Ethanol production dropped 17 million gallons to 288 million gallons on the week- the lowest volume in nearly 5 months.
  • The Federal Reserve kept short term rates at a range between 5.25-5.5 during their September meeting.
  • It was a disappointing week for US ag export sales. Corn and wheats were on the low end of trade expectations while soybean sales were below the most bearish estimate. The deficit for export sales is growing fast.
  • Open interest positions of Chicago commodities were mostly up again this week. Corn, soybeans, soybean meal, and wheats saw increases. Rough rice and soybean oil were down.
  • Similar to last week, producers and merchants were active buyers of Chicago corn on the week decreasing their net short position of futures and options by nearly 42% after 42% the week before. Conversely, managed money traders were net sellers increasing their net short by nearly 10,000 positions. For soybeans, producers and merchants sold off 17.6% of their net long position with money managers also shedding 28,000 positions.
  • Friday afternoon’s USDA Cattle on Feed Report showed all US cattle on feed as of September 1 at 11.094 million head, or 97.8% of last year. The estimate was just above the average trade estimate of 97.7%. August placements were higher while marketings were lower.
  • US agricultural export inspections were up week over week for soybeans and wheat, but down for corn and grain sorghum. All were within trade expectations.
  • US corn harvest is now 15% complete with corn crop conditions showing some slight improvement as combines roll along. While it is unlikely that precipitation is having an impact on crop conditions at this point in the season- yield monitors (or reports from monitors) might. Illinois and Iowa both saw noticeable increases.
  • US soybean harvest is now 12% complete up 7% week over week. Conditions declining only slightly.
  • 26% of the Winter wheat crop has been planted so far- slightly behind last years pace and the average pace. Plantings are being the most in the eastern corn belt due to slow fall harvest. This is where most of the soft red winter wheat is planted.

Weekly Commodity Market Update

Brownfield’s Weekly Commodity update featuring former OSU Extension Ag Economist Ben Brown.

This Weeks Topics:

  • Market recap
  • USDA WASDE review
  • Tightness in soybean market
  • Soybean crush down
  • Harvest picks up
  • Reports to watch

Market recap (changes on week as of Monday’s close):
• December 2023 corn down $.14 at $4.71
• November soybeans down $.53 at $13.16
• October soybean oil up 1.05 cents at 62.39 cents/lb
• October soybean meal down $15.60 at $390.40/short ton
• December 2023 wheat up $.07 at $5.91
• July 2024 wheat up $.03 at $6.40
• September WTI Crude Oil up $3.41 at $89.28/barrel

Continue reading

Ohio Crop Progress

Source: USDA
Moderate temperatures and mostly clear skies throughout Ohio provided farmers with favorable conditions to conduct pre-harvest activities, according to Ben Torrance, State Statistician, USDA NASS, Ohio Field Office. Continued lack of significant precipitation resulted in an increase in abnormally dry soil moisture levels. Topsoil moisture conditions were rated 6 percent very short, 37 percent short, 56 percent adequate, and 1 percent surplus. Statewide, the average temperature for the week ending on September 17 was 62.3 degrees, 3.1 degrees below normal. Weather stations recorded an average of 0.25 inches of precipitation, 0.59 inches below average. There were 6.1 days suitable for fieldwork during the week ending September 17.
While row crop progress remained behind the five-year average, favorable crop condition ratings exceeded previous year averages. Sixty-seven percent of corn was in or past dent and 22 percent was mature. Corn for silage was 42 percent harvested. Twenty-seven percent of soybeans were dropping leaves. Corn and soybean condition were 76 and 71 percent good to excellent, respectively. Third cuttings of alfalfa hay and other dry hay were 92 and 71 percent complete, respectively. Fourth cuttings of alfalfa hay were 56 percent complete. Winter wheat was 1 percent planted. Pasture and range condition was rated 63 percent good to excellent, down from the previous week.

Field Observations Thru September 15

Corn

Growth & Development

Most of the corn that I have seen this week is in either the late R4 (Dough) or the R5 (Dent) growth stage.  A few fields are approaching the final growth stage R6.

R6 – Physiological Maturity

  • Occurs approximately 66‐70 days after silking.
  • R6 is reached  after the milk line disappears and the starch has reached the base of the kernel.
  • Kernels have reached maximum dry weight.
  • Kernel moisture is  about 35% at physiological maturity.
  • Black layer occurs after physiological maturity and  serves as a visual verification that the plant is mature. Black layer typically occurs at 30%  moisture but varies by hybrid and environment.
  • Husks and many of the leaves are no longer green, but the stalk may be green.
  • Only external stress can reduce yield now,  such as plant lodging or insect feeding.

Scouting

At this growth stage look for:

  • Ear rots.
  • Stalk rots.
  • Anthracnose top dieback.
  • Stalk lodging.
  • Abnormal ear fill which identifies periods of stress.
  • Weed escapes (especially Palmer and Waterhemp).

This is also a good time to get an accurate yield estimate.

Soybeans

Growth & Development

Soybeans are continuing to mature.  Last week I highlighted the R7 growth stage, the last growth stage is R8 full maturity.

R8 – Full Maturity

  • 95% of pods reached mature color
  • Mature pod color does not necessarily indicate that beans are ready to harvest
  • 35% grain moisture in freshly matured pod
  • 15% within another 5 to 10 days
  • Below-optimum plant stands cause more branching, low pod heights & can delay maturity
  • Above-optimum plant stands increase lodging.

Scouting

At this growth stage look for:

  • Green stem syndrome.
  • Lodging
  • Sprouting seeds
  • Pod shattering
  • Weed escapes (especially Palmer and Waterhemp).

This is also a good time to check soybean yield potential.

County Rainfall Update