Source: Jim Noel
After the wet spring which was forecast, we expected a transition in early/mid-June from the spring pattern to summer pattern with a relaxation of rainfall for a brief period. This appears to be happening. However, it won’t last too long as we expect above normal rainfall to return for the second half of the month.
Over the last week, rainfall has been all over the place. Northern Ohio and far southern Ohio saw above normal rainfall above 1 inch. Central sections and far northwest Ohio saw below normal rainfall below an inch.
For the remainder of June, expect temperatures to be near normal. However, there will be a lot of swings in those temperatures. For the week of June 11-16, temperatures will be slightly below normal. For the week of June 17-23, temperatures will remain slightly below normal. For the last week in June temperatures will likely swing to above normal. With those average temperatures, expect below normal maximum temperatures the next two weeks with above normal minimum temperatures. For the last week of June, both maximum and minimum temperatures will be above normal but plenty of moisture will keep maximum temperatures generally at or below 90.
Rainfall for the week of June 11-16 will average 0.50 to 1.5 inches which are actually close to normal. For the rest of June rainfall will go above normal after this week. For the next 16 days, rainfall will average 2-5 inches which are above the normal of too far from 2 inches. However, confidence is low in rainfall after this week. Weather models are all over the place with the transition to summer. There is the risk of some heavy rain events in late June of 5+ inches. The greatest risk is in northern Ohio for these heavy rain events.
The outlook for June is near or slightly above normal temperatures and above normal rainfall and humidity.
The latest observed 7-day 4-km hi-resolution rainfall estimates can be found here: https://www.weather.gov/images/ohrfc/dynamic/latest7day.jpeg
The latest 16-day rainfall outlook can be found at https://www.weather.gov/images/ohrfc/dynamic/NAEFS16.apcp.mean.total.png
The latest NWS Ohio River Forecast Center river conditions can be found at https://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/