Perspectives on 2019 Corn and Soybean Acres: Impact of Prevent Plant

Source: farmdoc daily(9):151, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, August 15, 2019.

The Farm Service Agency (FSA) of the U.S. Department of Agriculture released county acreages for crops and prevent plantings based on acreage reports filed by farmers.  Even though prevent plant totaled 19 million acres in the United States, planted corn acres in 2019 are only slightly lower than 2018 values.  With notable exceptions, corn acres decreased in counties that had large areas of prevent planting and increased in acres with little prevent planting.  Soybean acres fell over the vast majority of counties in the United States.

FSA Acreage Data

FSA released their first set of 2019 county-level acreage data on August 1 (see Crop Acreage Data of FSA).  This data indicated that there were 85.9 million acres of corn planted in the United States, down by 1% from the 2018 plantings of 86.4 million acres (see Table 1)

The 2019 planting number (85.9 million acres) is expected to increase as FSA continues to update values monthly until January 2020.  From 2011 to 2018, corn acreage in the final January report averaged 1.8% higher than the initial August report.  However, in recent years, the increase has been much lower.  From 2016 to 2018, the January value was .7% higher than the initial August value.  A 1.3% increase – the average from 2011 to 2018 – would increase 2019 planted corn acres to 87.4 million acres.  A .7% increase – the average from 2016 to 2018 – would increase planted acres to 86.4 million acres, roughly the same as the planted acreage for 2018. Continue reading

Ohio NRCS Announces Disaster Recovery Funding to Plant Cover Crops on Flooded Cropland Acreage

NRCS just announced a new Disaster Recovery Funding program.  This funding will be administered through the EQUIP program.  Signup with Doug at the NRCS office beginning Monday.  Many of the details are not available yet.  Click on the link below for more details.

FY19 OH EQIP Disaster Recovery NR2

Soybean Prevent Planting Decisions in Middle June, Cover Crops, and MFP Payments

Source: farmdoc daily (9):114

Click here to watch Dr. Schnitkey’s video

Farmers across the Midwest can now take prevent planting payments on soybeans, as final planting dates for crop insurance purposes have arrived. Our comparisons suggest that planting soybeans do not have higher returns than taking a prevent planting payment given a high coverage level on crop insurance. However, the risk for lower returns from planting as compared to taking the prevent planting payment is limited as crop insurance provides a floor on revenue.  These risks become greater the later soybeans are planted in the late planting period. The economic advisability of planting soybeans depends on receiving Market Facilitation Payments and no additional Federal aid for prevent planting acres.  Our current projections indicate that returns from either prevent planting or planting soybeans will not cover costs and working capital will be eroded. At the end of this article, links to YouTube videos provide the latest information on cover crops and the Market Facilitation Program as well as a general background on preventing planting.

Yield Declines and Soybean Prevent Plant Decisions in 2019

Final planting dates for soybeans have passed in all the Corn Belt (see farmdoc dailyMay 7, 2019). For Illinois, the final planting date is June 15 for northern Illinois counties and June 20 for central and southern Illinois counties. After reaching the final planting date, farmers can take soybean preventing plant payments on farmland that was intended to be planted to soybeans if they had purchased a COMBO crop insurance plan (Revenue Protection (RP), RP with harvest price exclusion, and Yield Protection). Farmers can continue to plant soybeans, however, the crop insurance guarantee goes down 1 percent per day for each day after the final planting date during the late period. In Midwest states, the late planting period lasts 25 days after the final planting date.  After the late planting period, soybeans can still be planted, but the guarantee is 60% of the original revenue guarantee.

A key to evaluating the plant versus prevent plant decision is assessing yield losses from late planting. A comparison of double-crop soybean yields to full-season soybean yields in southern Illinois provides some indications of yield declines with late planting. Yield data were obtained from Illinois Farm Business Farm Management (FBFM). From 2012 to 2019, double-crop soybean yields averaged 38 bushels per acre, 75% of the average full-season yield of 51 bushels per acre (see Table 1).

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Mid to Late June Prevented Planting Decisions

Source:Ben Brown, Sarah Noggle, Barry Ward, OSU Extension

Consistent rains across Ohio and the Corn Belt continue to delay planting progress as the June 17 USDA Planting Progress report showed that 68% of intended corn acres and 50% of intended soybean acres have been planted in Ohio. Nationwide, roughly 27 million acres of corn and soybeans will either be planted or filed under prevented planting insurance. Across Ohio, the Final Plant Date (FPD) for soybeans is June 20. Soybeans can be planted after the FPD, but a one percent reduction in the insurance guarantee occurs. This brief article outlines economic considerations for soybean prevented planting under three scenarios: planting soybeans on corn acres, planting soybeans late, and taking prevent plant soybeans. There are three sections to this article: a brief market update on corn and soybeans, a policy update on Market Facilitation Payments, and then finally the scenarios listed above. This article contains the best information available as of release, but conditions may change. Farmers should check with their crop insurance agents when making prevented planting decisions. OSU Extension is not an authorizing body of federal crop insurance policies.

Continue reading

How to store treated seed

Source: Anne Dorrance,  OSU Extension

Let me say upfront that much of the information in this piece is based on a study published (Crop Science 53:1086-1095 in 2013) by Dr. Susan Goggi’s lab and others at Iowa State University, Dept. of Agronomy & Seed Science Center. As a scientist, we store both untreated and treated seed over years, but it is healthy and it is in cool and always dry conditions.  But this year we have several issues.  The seed raised in 2018, due to the rains through our long drawn out harvest, left a lot to be desired.  Last week, we had one day to plant and now we are making decisions on what to do with the seed we purchased that is treated.  Treated seed cannot enter the market and must be disposed of through planting, incineration, or burial based on the label. All of these are costly.

In a study at Iowa State, they compared 24 different seed lots which were treated with a fungicide, fungicide plus insecticide and not treated under 3 conditions: 1) a warehouse; 2) a climate controlled cold storage (50 F, ~60% RH); or 3) warm storage (77 F, ~31 % RH). The seed itself was high germination (95 to 98% germination), dry (<8%), and there was a very low percentage of seedborne pathogens.

Continue reading

Record Setting Rainfall

Source: Farm & Dairy

May 2019 was the second-wettest month in U.S. history.

Drenching rains and historic flooding last month contributed to a record-wet, 12-month period, from June 2018 through May 2019, according to the latest climate report from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA.

For Ohio, it was the wettest year on record in the last 124 years. (Scroll down for a chart with historical perspective of Ohio’s rainfall totals.)

Soggy conditions from June 2018 through May 2019 led to the wettest 12-month period on record in the U.S., with 37.68 inches, 7.73 inch above average. The previous June-May record was 35.47 inches and occurred from June 1982-May 1983. The previous all-time 12-month record was 36.20 inches and occurred from May 2018-April 2019.

Continue reading

Governor DeWine Requests USDA Disaster Designation for Ohio Farmers Impacted by Heavy Rainfall

(COLUMBUS, Ohio)—Ohio Governor Mike DeWine today sent a letter to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Secretary Sonny Perdue requesting a USDA Secretarial disaster designation for Ohio amid heavy rainfall impacting Ohio farmers.

In his letter, Governor DeWine notes that record rainfall through the spring planting season has been devastating to Ohio farmers, with flooding and saturated fields preventing them from planting crops. Only 50 percent of Ohio’s corn crop and 32 percent of Ohio’s soybean crop have been planted as of June 10, 2019.

“The harsh reality for Ohio farmers is that many acres will remain unplanted,” Governor DeWine said. “Our dairy and livestock sectors also face serious forage and feed shortages. We recognize the tremendous challenges facing our agricultural community, and we are working to identify any and all sources of possible relief.”

The letter is a formal request to the U.S. Department of Agriculture for a USDA disaster declaration for Ohio so that assistance can be made available to Ohio farmers.

“I visited with several farmers this week and saw firsthand the impact of this devastating rainfall. Fields are visibly filled with water and weeds instead of crops,” said Ohio Department of Agriculture Director Dorothy Pelanda.

Excessive rainfall presented challenges as early as last fall. Because of poor field conditions, some 2018 crops are still in the field and yet to be harvested. Currently, producers are dealing with erosion of their cropland, delayed fieldwork and planting, manure application challenges, and concerns among livestock producers that forages will be in short supply.

Farmdoc Webinar on Prevent Plant/Late Planting Decisions

A webinar on prevent planting was conducted on June 12, 2019. Items include:

1. Todd Hubbs provided market outlook: Bullish corn, bearish soybean
2. Jonathan Coppess provided a policy outlook: Still uncertainty on Market Facilitation Program and Disaster Assistence Programs
3. Gary Schnitkey provided farmer decision making: Corn planting is coming to the end, Don’t plant soybeans on corn prevent plant acres, little downside and upside on planting on planting soybeans on intended soybean acres for the next week.

The webinar video is available on our YouTube Channel now (Click Here)

Two more webinars will be conducted on the next two Wednesdays (June 19, June 26) at 8:00 am (Central Time).  Click here to register.

 

Corn Growth & Development

Today managing your corn crop requires knowledge of the different growth stages of the corn plant.  Growth stage identification is critical for scouting and proper timing of fertilizer and pesticide applications.  Each week throughout the growing season I will discuss the various corn growth stages and management issue at each stage.  This week I will focus on the seed.

The rain continues.  By now most of the corn that is going to be planted is in the ground.  Due to the weather induced extended corn planting season we have corn at various growth stages ranging from just planted to V4.

The Seed

Now that the seed is in the soil, it will begin to absorb water and begin to swell. Corn kernels must absorb about 30% of their weight in water before germination begins.  When enough water has been absorbed and the soil temperature is favorable, germination will occur.

Germination occurs in a specific sequence that is strongly influenced by soil temperature. Therefore, germination and emergence will occur in fewer days when the seed is planted into warmer soils.  Corn typically emerges in 115-120 growing degree days (GDD’s).

(Click on each picture to enlarge)

Fig. 1. Kernel appearance 12 hrs after planting.

The radicle root emerges first, near the tip end of the kernel, within two to three days in warm soils with adequate soil moisture or much longer if soil temperatures hover at or below 50F (10C).  In cooler or drier soils, the radicle root may not emerge until one to two weeks after planting.

 

 

Fig. 2. Seedling appearance 36 hrs (34 GDD) after planting.

The coleoptile (commonly called the “spike”) emerges next from the embryo side of the kernel within one to many days of the appearance of the radicle, depending on soil temperature.  The coleoptile is a rigid piece of plant tissue that completely encloses the four to five embryonic leaves (plumule) that formed during grain development of the seed production year.  The coleoptile initially negotiates its way toward the dent end of the kernel by virtue of the elongation of the mesocotyl. The plumule leaves slowly enlarge and eventually cause the coleoptile to split open as it nears the soil surface.

Fig. 3. Seedling appearance 60 hrs (58 GDD) after planting.

The lateral seminal roots emerge next and initially elongate towards the dent end of the kernel. Even though these roots and the radicle root are technically nodal roots, they are considered part of the seminal (seed) root system and not part of the permanent nodal root system that develops later. The first so-called “permanent” roots begin elongating from the first node at the crown of the seedling at approximately the V1 leaf stage (1 leaf with visible leaf collar) and are clearly visible by V2.

Fig. 4. Seedling appearance 72 hrs (67 GDD) after planting.

Fig. 5. Seedling appearance 82 hrs (79 GDD) after planting.

Fig. 6. Seedling appearance 105 hrs (103 GDD) after planting.

 

 

 

 

 

Fig. 7. Seedling emergence 5 days (114 GDD) after planting.

Fig. 8. Seedling emergence 5 days (114 GDD) after planting.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Adopted from: Visual Indicators of Germination in Corn, Dr. Bob Nielsen, Purdue University)

 

More Wet Weather Ahead

Source: Jim Noel

After the wet spring which was forecast, we expected a transition in early/mid-June from the spring pattern to summer pattern with a relaxation of rainfall for a brief period. This appears to be happening. However, it won’t last too long as we expect above normal rainfall to return for the second half of the month.

Over the last week, rainfall has been all over the place. Northern Ohio and far southern Ohio saw above normal rainfall above 1 inch. Central sections and far northwest Ohio saw below normal rainfall below an inch.

For the remainder of June, expect temperatures to be near normal. However, there will be a lot of swings in those temperatures. For the week of June 11-16, temperatures will be slightly below normal. For the week of June 17-23, temperatures will remain slightly below normal. For the last week in June temperatures will likely swing to above normal. With those average temperatures, expect below normal maximum temperatures the next two weeks with above normal minimum temperatures. For the last week of June, both maximum and minimum temperatures will be above normal but plenty of moisture will keep maximum temperatures generally at or below 90.

Rainfall for the week of June 11-16 will average 0.50 to 1.5 inches which are actually close to normal. For the rest of June rainfall will go above normal after this week. For the next 16 days, rainfall will average 2-5 inches which are above the normal of too far from 2 inches. However, confidence is low in rainfall after this week. Weather models are all over the place with the transition to summer. There is the risk of some heavy rain events in late June of 5+ inches. The greatest risk is in northern Ohio for these heavy rain events.

The outlook for June is near or slightly above normal temperatures and above normal rainfall and humidity.

The latest observed 7-day 4-km hi-resolution rainfall estimates can be found here: https://www.weather.gov/images/ohrfc/dynamic/latest7day.jpeg

The latest 16-day rainfall outlook can be found at https://www.weather.gov/images/ohrfc/dynamic/NAEFS16.apcp.mean.total.png

The latest NWS Ohio River Forecast Center river conditions can be found at  https://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/