Source: Dr. Peter Thomison, OSU Extension
Many corn fields are still silking (and some are just past the mid-vegetative stages)….so, it may seem a little early to discuss estimating grain yields. However, according to the most recent NASS crop report, for the week ending Aug. 8, 2019, 25% of the corn crop has reached the dough stage (compared to 63% for the 5 year average). Corn growers with drought damaged fields and late plantings may want to estimate grain yields prior to harvest in order to help with marketing and harvest plans. Two procedures that are widely used for estimating corn grain yields prior to harvest are the YIELD COMPONENT METHOD (also referred to as the “slide rule” or corn yield calculator) and the EAR WEIGHT METHOD. Each method will often produce yield estimates that are within 20 bu/ac of actual yield. Such estimates can be helpful for general planning purposes.
THE YIELD COMPONENT METHOD was developed by the Agricultural Engineering Department at the University of Illinois. The principle advantage to this method is that it can be used as early as the milk stage of kernel development, a stage many Ohio corn fields have probably achieved. The yield component method involves use of a numerical constant for kernel weight which is figured into an equation in order to calculate grain yield. This numerical constant is sometimes referred to as a “fudge‑factor” since it is based on a predetermined average kernel weight. Since weight per kernel will vary depending on hybrid and environment, the yield component method should be used only to estimate relative grain yields, i.e. “ballpark” grain yields. When below normal rainfall occurs during grain fill (resulting in low kernel weights), the yield component method will OVERESTIMATE yields. In a year with good grain fill conditions (resulting in high kernel weights), the method will underestimate grain yields.
In the past, the YIELD COMPONENT METHOD equation used a “fudge factor” of 90 (as the average value for kernel weight, expressed as 90,000 kernels per 56 lb bushel), but kernel size has increased as hybrids have improved over the years. Dr. Bob Nielsen at Purdue University suggests that a “fudge factor” of 80 to 85 (85,000 kernels per 56 lb bushel) is a more realistic value to use in the yield estimation equation today. https://www.agry.purdue.edu/ext/corn/news/timeless/YldEstMethod.html
According to Dr. Emerson Nafziger at the University of Illinois under current drought stress “…. If there’s a fair amount of green leaf area and kernels have already reached dough stage, using 90 [as the “fudge-factor “] might be reasonable. It typically doesn’t help much to try to estimate depth of kernels at dough stage, when kernel depth is typically rather shallow anyway, especially if there are 16 or more kernel rows on the ear. If green leaf area is mostly gone, however, and kernels look like they may be starting to shrink a little, kernels may end up very light, and using 120 or even 140 [as the “fudge-factor”] might be more accurate”. http://bulletin.ipm.illinois.edu/article.php?id=1695.
Calculate estimated grain yield as follows: