Corn

Weekly Commodity Market Update

Brownfield’s Weekly Commodity update featuring former OSU Extension Ag Economist Ben Brown.

This Week’s Topics:

  • Market recap
  • Consumer sentiment at two-year high
  • Oilseed outlook
  • Managed money profit taking
  • Managing when to sell
  • Record December soybean crush
  • Reports to watch

This week Will and Ben discuss marketing crops around profit taking

Market recap (Changes on week as of Monday’s close):

  •  March 2024 corn down $0.02 at $4.45
  • December 2024 corn down $.06 $4.75
  • March 2024 soybeans down $.04 at $12.23
  • November 2024 soybeans down $.04 at $11.97
  • March soybean oil down 2.19 cents at 48.16 cents/lb
  • March soybean meal down $7.50 at $355.80/short ton
  • March 2024 wheat flat at $5.96
  • July 2024 wheat down $.07 at $6.12
  • March WTI Crude Oil up $2.02 at $74.67/barrel

Weekly Highlights 

  • The December National Oilseed Processors Report showed their members crushed a record 195.3 million bushels of soybeans in December- up from 189 in November and 177.5 million last December. Cumulative soybean crush is running 40 million bushels of last years pace with USDA expected an 88-million-bushel year over year increase.
  • The US economy continues to show resistance. The Home Builder Confidence Index reported a reading of 44 increased from 39 in December and analysist expectations of 39. This signal that while contracting its not contracting as fast. Lower mortgage rates boosted confidence.
  • Consumer sentiment jumped to the highest level since July 2021 reflecting optimism regarding slowing inflation and rising incomes.
  • The US labor market remains tight as jobless claims fall under 200,000 and lowest level in 16 months. Employers may be adding fewer workers but they are holding on to the ones they have and paying higher wages.
  • It was a fairly risk on week for US commodities. Open interest positions increased for Chicago wheat (5.7%), Corn (8.1%), soybeans (4.9%), soybean oil (5.6%), soybean meal (6.2%), and cotton (2.7%) while rough rice fell (2.1%).
  • Producers and merchants increased their futures and options positions of Chicago corn more than 25,000 contracts with managed money increasing their net short position 29,819 contracts. The managed money net short for corn is quickly reaching a resistance level close to the largest net short in 15 years.
  • Managed money for soybeans also increased the net short 45.5 thousand contracts.
  • US crude oil stocks excluding the strategic petroleum reserve were down 105 million gallons while gasoline stocks increased 125 million gallons on a slight week over week reduction in gasoline demand.
  • US ethanol production pulled back to 310 million gallons but well above the 296 million gallons last year. Ethanol stocks have built to a 10 year high. The cold weather will likely slow US ethanol production over the next several weeks. Higher natural gas prices and lower ethanol prices are cutting into ethanol plant margins.
  • Export sales were bullish for corn and wheat last week while neutral for beans and grain sorghum. Sales were higher week over week across the board.
  • Weekly grain and oilseed export inspections were rather neutral. Corn, soybeans, and grain sorghum were all down week over week, while total wheats were slightly higher.
  • Friday’s USDA Cattle on Feed as of January 1 report showed all cattle on feed at 102.1% of last year.

Fall-applied Herbicide Considerations

Now that harvest is finally winding down, our thoughts change to fall weed control.   This is the best time of year to control winter annuals and some of the more difficult to manage overwintering weed species. Biennial and perennial plants are now sending nutrients down to the root systems in preparation for winter. Systemic herbicides like glyphosate and 2,4-D applied at this time will be translocated down into the roots more effectively than if applied in spring when nutrients are moving upward. This results in better control. In addition, the increasingly unpredictable spring weather patterns we have experienced in recent years can influence the timing and efficacy of spring burndown applications. Fall-applied herbicides can lead to weed free situations going into spring until early emerging annuals begin to appear in April, and are an essential component in the control of marestail and other overwintering species.

Here are some reminders when it comes to fall-applied herbicides:

  • Evaluate weed emergence and growth post-harvest to help determine if an application is necessary.
  • Fall-applied herbicides should primarily target weeds that are emerged at the time of application.
  • Species present in large quantities late-season that would necessitate the application of an herbicide include (but are not limited to): marestail, dandelion, wild carrot, poison hemlock, common chickweed, purple deadnettle, henbit, annual bluegrass, and cressleaf groundsel.
  • OSU research has not found much of a benefit from adding metribuzin or other residual products late in the fall. The exception to this is chlorimuron, which can persist into the spring. The recommendation here has generally been to keep costs low in the fall and save those products for spring when you will get more bang for your buck.
  • Herbicides generally work across a range of conditions, though activity can be slower as temperatures drop. Foliar products are most effective when daytime temperatures are in the 50s or higher and nighttime temperatures remain above 40.

Table 1 in the Weed Control Guide for Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, and Missouri provides ratings for various overwintering weed species in response to fall-applied herbicides.

Harvest Delays – Light vs. Temperature

There has been a lot of discussion about the crop yields from 2023 in Ohio, from early reports of crop stress in May and June to greater than anticipated yield values for many producers this fall. Yield reports of >110 bu/ac wheat harvested in July were reported in parts of Ohio, and better than anticipated yields in some corn and soybean fields. Harvest progress of corn has been delayed from normal for many farmers.

Many questions have been raised on the role that haze from Canadian wildfires may have played on seasonal crop growth this year. Ohio experienced three major episodes of wildfire impacts on June 6-7, June 27-29, and July 16-17, with several more days throughout the two-month period of less intense smoke-filled skies. However, looking at 2023 compared to historical trends overall radiation availability was similar to the 10-year historical average for the three CFAES research stations of Northwest, Wooster, and Western (Figure 1). Light availability was higher than normal in May through mid-June, in part due to many clear days and below average rainfall. Light availability approached normal levels throughout June and July in part due to a slight reduction during the short period of haze, but recovered to mimic the 10-year patterns observed in recent past.

Despite the short haze periods, the photons available per heat unit accumulated (PTQ or photothermal quotient) were at or above the 10-year average (0-38% greater) aside from July at Western research station (6% lower) and September at Northwest (2% below normal). Generally, greater PTQ values suggest that more photosynthesis can occur in the same thermal period and could lead to greater yields.

Figure 1. Daily light integral (left) and accumulated growing degree days, base 50°F (right), and the 10-year averages for three Ohio locations of Northwest Agricultural Research Station in Custar (upper row), Western Agricultural Research Station in South Charleston (middle row), and the Ohio Agricultural Research and Development Center in Wooster (bottom row) in 2023.

Contrastingly, accumulated Growing Degree Days (GDDs) were below the 10-year average for every location this year (Figure 2). The same pattern that brought the frequent spells of wildfire smoke, northerly wind flow out of Canada, kept temperatures below average for the summer (Figure 2 – left). It is possible the cooler temperatures helped crop’s periods of water deficit better this year than in years past, but also can have contributed to the slow drydown experienced by many farmers this year.

Interesting to note, several folks have commented that this summer reminded them of the summer of 1992. Looking at that year’s temperature difference compared to average (Figure 2 – right), temperatures were cooler in 1992 than this past summer. Mt. Pinatubo erupted in June 1991 and is often pointed to as a main reason for cooler global temperatures in the year that followed. Volcanic emissions circled around the globe high in the atmosphere throughout the tropical and sub-tropical regions, reflecting and absorbing solar radiation and cooling the Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures by about 0.9-1°F.

Overall, the cooler temperatures and slower accumulation of GDDs can be the largest contributor to delayed corn harvest this year. Cooler overall conditions could have led to slightly higher than normal PTQ values for the season, which also may help explain the higher than anticipated yields in the wheat crop this summer.

Weekly Commodity Market Update

Brownfield’s Weekly Commodity update featuring former OSU Extension Ag Economist Ben Brown.

This Week’s Topics:

  • Market recap
  • Corn, soybean production estimates drop
  • Chinese soybean stock changes
  • Wheat exports
  • Record soybean crush
  • Reports to watch

Market recap (Changes on week as of Monday’s close):

  • December 2023 corn up $.02 at $4.90
  • December 2024 corn up $.01 at $5.17
  • November 2023 soybeans up $.22 at $12.86
  • November 2024 soybeans up $.05 at $12.55
  • December soybean oil up 2.97 cents at 55.90 cents/lb
  • December soybean meal up at $390.20/short ton
  • December 2023 wheat up $.05 at $5.77
  • July 2024 wheat down $.06 at $6.34
  • November WTI Crude Oil up $1.10 at $85.70/barrel

Weekly Highlights

  • US crude oil stocks excluding the strategic petroleum reserve increased 427 million gallons on the week while gasoline, distillate, and ethanol stocks all declined.
  • Ethanol production declined just slightly week over week- down 2 million gallons to 295. However, US gasoline consumption was up nearly 7% during the first week over October. With the increase in use and the moderate decline in production ethanol stocks declined 15 million gallons.
  • It was a neutral week for US ag export sales. Corn sales were roughly half what they were the week prior but slightly above all expectations while soybeans also cleared rather low expectations. Soft red winter wheat export sales continue to support the wheat complex on global price competitiveness.
  • USDA cut both US corn and soybeans national average yields in October by 0.8 and 0.5 bushels respectively. For both, the decrease in production was either partially or fully offset with declines in demand categories.
  • The most surprising number in Thursday Supply and Demand Report came from the global soybean balance sheet where a drop in Chinese beginning stocks and an increase in expected feed use helped create a bullish global ending stocks picture.
  • Open interest in Chicago corn and soybean futures and options positions increased week over week. Producer and merchants doubled their short position of corn contracts while slightly selling soybean contracts.
  • Managed money traders bought back 46.7 thousand positions of Chicago corn to shrink their net short- this was someway surprising after daily estimates had estimated they would increase their net short.
  • USDA Ag Export Inspections were bullish for soybeans while bearish for corn. At nearly 74 million bushels, soybean exports were the highest since early January.
  • The National Oilseed Processors Association reported their members crushed 165.5 million bushels of soybeans in September- setting a new record for the month of September. Soybean oil stocks fell to its lowest level since December 2014.
  • Harvest production in the US moved along this week- corn was up 11% to 45% and soybean harvest was up 19% to 43%.

Weekly Commodity Market Update

Brownfield’s Weekly Commodity update featuring former OSU Extension Ag Economist Ben Brown.

This Week’s Topics:

  • Market recap
  • Crude oil price swings
  • USDA report preview
  • Corn ending stocks
  • U.S. export positioning
  • Reports to watch

 

Market recap (Changes on week as of Monday’s close):

  • December 2023 corn flat at $4.88
  • December 2024 corn down $.01 at $5.16
  • November 2023 soybeans down $.13 at $12.64
  • November 2024 soybeans down $.17 at $12.50
  • December soybean oil down 3.5 cents at 53.93 cents/lb
  • December soybean meal down flat at $374.60/short ton
  • December 2023 wheat up $.08 at $5.72
  • July 2024 wheat up $.09 at $6.40
  • November WTI Crude Oil down $2.64 at $84.60/barrelWeekly Highlights
  • It was announced last week that the Argentina Government will expected their “soy dollar” program through October 25
  • US Crude oil stocks minus the strategic petroleum reserve fell another 93 million gallons this week along with distillate stocks, while gasoline stocks were up 272 million gallons.
  • Ethanol production was flat at 297 million gallons produced on the week using an estimated 99.9 million bushels of corn.
  • It was a solid week for agricultural export sales last week with corn and soybeans at the top end of their respective expectations and highest weekly volumes since April and January, respectively.

Weekly Commodity Market Update

Brownfield’s Weekly Commodity update featuring former OSU Extension Ag Economist Ben Brown.

This Week’s Topics:

  • Market recap
  • U.S. grain stocks adjustments
  • U.S. harvest
  • Corn and soybean storage
  • Reports to watch

Market recap (Changes on week as of Monday’s close):

  • December 2023 corn up $.07 at $4.88
  • December 2024 corn up $.08 at $5.17
  • November 2023 soybeans down $.20 at $12.77
  • November 2024 soybeans up $.06 at $12.67
  • December soybean oil flat at 57.43 cents/lb
  • December soybean meal down $15.50 at $374.30/short ton
  • December 2023 wheat down $.25 at $5.64
  • July 2024 wheat down $.12 at $6.31
  • November WTI Crude Oil down $2.38 at $87.24/barrel

Weekly Highlights

  • For the most recent week of data- US crude oil stocks were down (-91 mil. gals) while US gasoline (+43.1 mil. gal.), Distillate (16.7 mil. gal.) and ethanol (16.7 mil. gal.) were all up.
  • Ethanol production rebounded to 297 million gallons produced on the week using an estimated 99.9 million bushels of corn.
  • US Ag Export sales were up for most commodities week over week including corn, soybeans, grain sorghum, and all wheats. US wheat sales were bullish coming in above pre-report estimates.
  • It was the third consecutive week producers and merchants decreased their net short in Chicago futures and options positions by more than 40%- this week 49%. Producers and merchants also reduced the net long in soybeans for the fourth consecutive week.
  • Managed money traders of Chicago commodities were mixed. They were net buyers of wheats and net sellers of corn and soybeans.
  • Weekly ag export inspections were down week over week for corn and wheat, but up week over week for soybeans and grain sorghum. All were within pre-report trade expectations.
  • US Grain stocks on September 1 were all within trade expectations but toward the top end for soybeans and below the average trade guess for corn. Both corn and soybean stocks were down from September 1, 2022.
  • The quarterly Hogs and Pigs report showed that there were 74.3 million hogs and pigs in the US- up slightly from last September.
  • Soybeans crushed for crude oil in August was 169 million bushels- down from 183 million in July, 175 million last August and pre-report expectations of 171.6 million bushels.
  • Corn crushed in August totaled 490 million bushels- below July 2023 but up 1% from August 2022. Corn for fuel alcohol at 443 million bushels, was down 3% from July but up 3% from last August.
  • US corn harvest is now 23% complete with corn crop conditions showing some slight improvement as combines roll along. Weekly increases were pretty consistent across the country.
  • US soybean harvest is now 23% complete up 11% week over week. Conditions improved on the week after declining last week.
  • 40% of the Winter wheat crop has been planted so far- slightly ahead last years pace but behind the average pace.

Check your corn now for stalk strength

As harvest approaches, its time to check our corn plants for stalk integrity.  Time spent tin the field now, may pay huge dividends later this fall.  As stalk tissue becomes compromised below the main ear the stalk may become brittle or weak and be prone to lodging.

There are a number of plant pathogens that can cause stalk rot including, Anthracnose, Bacteria, Charcoal, Diplodia, Fusarium, Gibberella, and Pythium. Some of these stalk rots have very characteristic symptoms that can help identify the specific problem, while others may require laboratory diagnosis (Table 1).  The Purdue Extension Publication Corn Diseases: Stalk Rot has good images to help identify the major stalk rot diseases. (https://www.extension.purdue.edu/extmedia/BP/BP-89-W.pdf ).

Check field by using the Push or Pinch Test by evaluating 20 plants in at least five random areas in a field.

  • Pinch Test – grab the stalk somewhere between the lowest two internodes and pinch between your fingers to see if the stalk is strong enough to handle the force – if the stalk collapses, it fails.
  • Push Test – push the stalk to a 30-degree angle – if it pops back up when released, it passes the test, if not it fails.

Threshold: 10% or more of the stalks fail then consider field for early harvesting to avoid risk for lodging.

What can you do in the future – management options will depend on the specific disease (see table 1). Production practices that promote good plant health including balanced fertilization, appropriate plant populations, and good water management can reduce stresses that might predispose corn to stalk rot. In addition, these key management tools can help mitigate future stalk rot issues.

  1. Properly diagnosis the stalk rot pathogen.
  2. Select hybrids with resistance if available.
  3. Crop Rotation – rotating to non-host crop will help reduce stalk rot potential in a field. Note that Charcoal rot and Gibberella stalk rot can infect other rotational crops.
  4. Tillage – burying infected crop residue will encourage more rapid desiccation and help reduces risk of overwintering in crop residue.
  5. Good soil drainage and reduced compaction.
  6. Foliar Fungicides – applying foliar fungicides can help protect crop from foliar diseases that could predispose plant to stalk rot when present, but devoid of foliar disease pressure fungicides applications have not consistently been found to help reduce stalk rot.

Ohio Crop Progress

Source: USDA

Crop maturity accelerated under last week’s warm and dry conditions, according to Ben Torrance, State Statistician, USDA NASS, Ohio Field Office. Topsoil moisture conditions were rated 6 percent very short, 49 percent short, and 45 percent adequate. Statewide, the average temperature for the week ending on September 24 was 63.4 degrees, 2.0 degrees above normal. Weather stations recorded an average of 0.09 inches of precipitation, 0.64 inches below average. There were 6.5 days suitable for fieldwork during the week ending September 24.

Last week’s field activities included hay bailing, manure application, lime spreading, and drainage tile installation. Limited instances of tar spot fungus in corn stands were reported in west-central portions of the State. Seventyseven percent of corn was in or past dent, 40 percent was mature, and 2 percent was harvested. Corn for silage was 59 percent harvested. Fifty-two percent of soybeans were dropping leaves. Corn and soybean condition were 72 and 68 percent good to excellent, respectively. Third cuttings of alfalfa hay and other dry hay were 95 and 80 percent complete, respectively. Fourth cuttings of alfalfa hay were 63 percent complete. Winter wheat was 3 percent planted. Pasture and range condition was rated 56 percent good to excellent, down from the previous week.

Weekly Commodity Market Update

Brownfield’s Weekly Commodity update featuring former OSU Extension Ag Economist Ben Brown.

This Week’s Topics:

  • Market recap
  • U.S. harvest overview
  • U.S. wheat planting
  • Ukraine production estimate up
  • The Fed holds interest rates steady… but
  • Reports to watch

Market recap (Changes on week as of Monday’s close):

  • December 2023 corn up $.10 at $4.81
  • November soybeans down $.19 at $12.97
  • October soybean oil down 3.64 cents at 58.75 cents/lb
  • October soybean meal up $1.60 at $392.00/short ton
  • December 2023 wheat down $.02 at $5.89
  • July 2024 wheat up $.03 at $6.43
  • September WTI Crude Oil up $0.36 at $89.62/barrelWeekly Highlights
  • US energy stocks dropped across the board this week: crude oil (-90 million gallons), gasoline (35 million gallons), and distillate supplies (-120 million gallons).
  • Ethanol production dropped 17 million gallons to 288 million gallons on the week- the lowest volume in nearly 5 months.
  • The Federal Reserve kept short term rates at a range between 5.25-5.5 during their September meeting.
  • It was a disappointing week for US ag export sales. Corn and wheats were on the low end of trade expectations while soybean sales were below the most bearish estimate. The deficit for export sales is growing fast.
  • Open interest positions of Chicago commodities were mostly up again this week. Corn, soybeans, soybean meal, and wheats saw increases. Rough rice and soybean oil were down.
  • Similar to last week, producers and merchants were active buyers of Chicago corn on the week decreasing their net short position of futures and options by nearly 42% after 42% the week before. Conversely, managed money traders were net sellers increasing their net short by nearly 10,000 positions. For soybeans, producers and merchants sold off 17.6% of their net long position with money managers also shedding 28,000 positions.
  • Friday afternoon’s USDA Cattle on Feed Report showed all US cattle on feed as of September 1 at 11.094 million head, or 97.8% of last year. The estimate was just above the average trade estimate of 97.7%. August placements were higher while marketings were lower.
  • US agricultural export inspections were up week over week for soybeans and wheat, but down for corn and grain sorghum. All were within trade expectations.
  • US corn harvest is now 15% complete with corn crop conditions showing some slight improvement as combines roll along. While it is unlikely that precipitation is having an impact on crop conditions at this point in the season- yield monitors (or reports from monitors) might. Illinois and Iowa both saw noticeable increases.
  • US soybean harvest is now 12% complete up 7% week over week. Conditions declining only slightly.
  • 26% of the Winter wheat crop has been planted so far- slightly behind last years pace and the average pace. Plantings are being the most in the eastern corn belt due to slow fall harvest. This is where most of the soft red winter wheat is planted.

Weekly Commodity Market Update

Brownfield’s Weekly Commodity update featuring former OSU Extension Ag Economist Ben Brown.

This Weeks Topics:

  • Market recap
  • USDA WASDE review
  • Tightness in soybean market
  • Soybean crush down
  • Harvest picks up
  • Reports to watch

Market recap (changes on week as of Monday’s close):
• December 2023 corn down $.14 at $4.71
• November soybeans down $.53 at $13.16
• October soybean oil up 1.05 cents at 62.39 cents/lb
• October soybean meal down $15.60 at $390.40/short ton
• December 2023 wheat up $.07 at $5.91
• July 2024 wheat up $.03 at $6.40
• September WTI Crude Oil up $3.41 at $89.28/barrel

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