Predicting the Future

I’ve been reading this book over the past few years and recently picked it up again. It is hard to put it down. The author provides an honest discussion on the limits of prediction due to ontological and epistemological factors There is lots in here for systems thinkers, modelers and “Big Data” analysts.

Source: Predicting the Future

Big data often yields small returns. Here’s how to fix that

A few selected quotes.

“More data help only if they are representative of what we want to study.”

“No algorithm can overcome a question that is too broad or misplaced.”

“…it is difficult for nonexpert data consumers to know which methods to use to answer a question. As a consequence, assembly-line analysis is common; methods that amount to mass production are used over and over. And too many investigators count on the size of the data pool to straighten out any problems, which doesn’t always happen.”

Source: Big data often yields small returns. Here’s how to fix that