The Future Americans Model

Source: The Future Americans Model | Roybal Center for Health Policy Simulation | USC


The Future Americans Model (FAM) is an economic-demographic microsimulation that extends the Roybal Center’s Future Elderly Model (FEM) to the entire adult population in the United States.

As with its predecessor, the FAM involves three key components. The first component includes the transition models of health, education, family and work and earnings. The second component is an “initial conditions model” to feed the model new cohorts as younger groups enter the relevant ages of the model. To accomplish this, the FAM’s infrastructure generates new cohorts using information on demographic and health trends currently observed among younger cohorts. The outcomes of these cohorts are then projected using the transitional probabilities from the first step. The third and final component, the “policy outcomes module,” aggregates outcomes into health and cost measures such as taxes, medical care costs (by payer e.g. Medicare, Medicaid, out-of-pocket), QALYs, and life expectancies.