Summer Weather Outlook

By: Jim Noel, for OSU Extension C.O.R.N. Newslettter

Our attention now turns to the summer growing season and what is in store. Some things are different this summer.

  • The ocean temperatures are cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean while ocean temperatures are above normal in the Gulf of Mexico into parts of the Caribbean. In addition, Lake Erie water temperatures will trend from cooler to warmer than normal as we get late into the growing season.
  • With recent rains, soil moisture has increased again in Ohio and remains above normal in much of the corn and soybean belt. The soils are not as wet as 2019 but with above normal soil moisture will come plenty of evapotranspiration. In 2019 for Ohio, soil moisture generally ranked in the top 1-5% wettest while currently we are in the top 5-15% wettest. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/Figures/daily/curr.w.rank.daily.gif
  • Research shows 30-50% of summer rains come from local evapotranspiration from crops, trees etc. Given the wet soil conditions overall, expect a wetter than normal first half of summer, but not like last summer. We are likely to see the typical summer thunderstorm complexes in June and July ride along the high moisture content boundary of the corn crop from the northern Plains to Ohio.
  • Rainfall becomes more uncertain the second half of summer. Given the warm Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean it will likely favor increased storm activity down there. When that happens we often dry out some at least in late summer up here.
  • The outlook for June-August calls for slightly above normal temperatures with rainfall going from (above normal) first half to (normal or below normal) second half of summer. The above normal temperatures are favored more on overnight low temperatures versus daytime high temperatures due to soil moisture.

The latest climate outlooks are available at: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

Cold Weather Impact on Corn and Soybean

By: Alexander Lindsey, Laura Lindsey. OSU Extension. Originally published in OSU Extension C.O.R.N. Newsletter

In Ohio, between May 9 and 10, temperatures were as low as 26°F with some areas even receiving snow. The effect on corn and soybean depends on both temperature, duration of low temperature, and growth stage of the plant. The soil can provide some temperature buffering capacity, especially if soil is wet. Water is approximately 4x more resistant to temperature changes than air or dry soil, and thus will buffer the soil from experiencing large temperature changes as air temperatures drop. Deeper planted seeds may also be more resistant to large temperature swings. Continue reading

How Cold is Too Cold for Wheat at Feekes 8 and Feekes 10.5.1 Growth Stages?

By: Laura Lindsey, Alexander Lindsey, Aaron Wilson. OSU Extension. Originally published in OSU Extension C.O.R.N. Newsletter.

Every year presents a different set of challenges for agricultural production across Ohio. Last year, northwest and west central Ohio could not escape the rain. This year, Ohio cannot seem to shake the chill. An unusual weather pattern set up across the Midwest and Northeast U.S. late last week and into the weekend that led to some snow in spots and record or near-record lows across the state (Figure 1). Overnight lows for a few locations in Ohio on Saturday May 9, 2020 include 26°F outside of Toledo, 27° in Lancaster and Youngstown, and 28°F in Dayton, Cincinnati, and New Philadelphia. Many areas spent more than eight hours below 32°F with about 4 hours spent below 30°F. Naturally, this would raise questions concerning potential wheat damage.

Map

Figure 1. Daily overnight lows based on station observations for May 9-10, 2020. Figures generated at Midwest Regional Climate Center. Continue reading

CFAES Ag Weather System Near-Surface Air and Soil Temperatures/Moisture

By: Aaron WilsonGreg LaBarge, CPAg/CCAElizabeth HawkinsSam Custer, OSU Extension

We are once again providing a soil temperature overview in the C.O.R.N. Newsletter through April-May 2020. The College of Food, Agricultural, and Environmental Sciences (CFAES) Agricultural Research Stations located throughout the state have two- and four-inch soil temperatures monitored on an hourly basis.

Figure 1: Average daily air temperature (red), two-inch (green) and four-inch (blue) soil temperatures for spring 2020. Soil type and placement are provided for each location. Map of locations provided in the bottom right. Soil temperatures are minimum temperatures for Versailles and Xenia and daily average for other sites. Continue reading

Challenging Conditions Remain into April

By: Jim Noel, National Weather Service for OSU Extension C.O.R.N Newsletter

Temperatures and Rainfall: Temperatures will start the first 7 days of April 1-3 degrees F above normal. Rainfall will start April below normal about half of normal. That is some good news  as the end of March (as forecast) was very wet. However, most indications are for the remainder of April after the first week, temperatures will be near normal and rainfall slightly above normal. This will put pressure on early spring planting in April. Evaporation and evapotransporation will be held in check by closer to normal temperatures as we go through April. The May outlook calls for warmer than normal and a little wetter than normal but not as wet as last year. Continue reading

Wet Weather for the Rest of March

By: Jim Noel, National Weather Service. For OSU Extension CORN newsletter.

Current Conditions…Soil moisture conditions remain wet due to last years very wet conditions along with an overall damp winter. Current soil moisture conditions can be found at the NOAA/NWS website: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#

What it shows is Ohio is ranked anywhere from the top 5-25% of wettest years on record for soil wetness depending on where you are in Ohio. This is slightly drier than at the same time last year but bottom line it is still wet. The last 30-days of rainfall is generally between 90-140% of normal across Ohio. The extreme northwest corner of Ohio has been running at about 80% of normal. About 75% of the state has been running wetter than normal the last 30 days with about 25% a little drier than normal. You can get all the latest information on precipitation at 4 km resolution at: https://water.weather.gov/precip/ This data is quality controlled by humans at the river forecast centers like OHRFC. Continue reading

From Across the Field – 1/30/2020

Furry Foe, and Weatherman Alike

Well it is almost February, which means we are past the halfway point of winter and in the heart of Extension meeting season. Looking ahead to the next week, I have a First Monday Coffee Break planned at the Extension office where we will discuss non-meat alternative proteins and how to have a sound conversation on the topic with consumers. Also, next Friday is NW Ohio Crops Day, which I have wrote about before. The deadline to RSVP for the event at the reduced cost is tomorrow at 4:30 p.m.

Speaking of animals and halfway through winter, Sunday is Groundhog Day. According to folklore, if it is cloudy when a groundhog emerges from its burrow on this day, the groundhog will leave the burrow, signifying that winter will soon end. If on the other hand, if it is sunny, the groundhog will supposedly “see its shadow” and retreat into its burrow, and winter will continue for six more weeks. Continue reading

Warmer and Wetter, Ohio’s Climate is Shifting

Source: Ohio Ag Net online

Little snow, warmer days — it’s been an unusual winter. Or has it?

For the past four decades, Ohio’s winters have been warming twice as fast as its summers. And the state is getting more rainfall as well. 2019 was the sixth wettest year in Ohio and the 12th warmest, said Aaron Wilson, climate specialist for The Ohio State University College of Food, Agricultural, and Environmental Sciences (CFAES).

“It was certainly our wettest decade on record,” Wilson said.

On average, Ohio’s annual rainfall has increased 5% to 15% since the early 1900s, with the largest increases in areas such as north-central Ohio where fall rainfall has risen by 31%, Wilson said. Continue reading

More Active Fall Weather Pattern Ahead

By Jim Noel, NOAA

A more active weather pattern is ahead. We expect a weak to moderate storm with some rainfall every 3 to 4 days over the next few weeks.

For the week of Oct. 22, expect slightly above normal temperatures by a degree or two and rainfall between 0.25-0.75 inches on average. There could be some scattered freezing temperatures in the north and west sections of Ohio especially come Saturday morning.

For the last week of October, there should be early to mid week rainfall with another 0.25-1.00 inches followed by a surge of cold weather and the real possibility of the first widespread freeze toward Halloween.

The outlook for November is above normal temperatures after a cold start to the month and rainfall normal to above normal. The early trends suggest a turn to a wetter late winter and spring of 2020 but we will need to simply monitor that.

The next two weeks rainfall totals will generally range from 0.50 to 2 inches across the state.

October 2019 – Weather Prediction

By: Jim Noel, National Weather Service. Previously published by OSU Extension CORN Newsletter

After another hot week (until late this week), a cool down to normal temperatures is expected starting either Oct. 3 or 4 that will last through Oct. 15. Temperatures are expected to return to above normal (but no where near current levels) from Oct. 15-31.

Rainfall will be above normal in northern Ohio this week. The week of Oct. 7 will be normal or below normal but confidence is next week’s rainfall pattern is low to moderate. Above normal rainfall is in the outlook for the second half of October which could slow harvest after Oct. 15. Continue reading