BIASED JUDGEMENTS ON WHAT MOVES STOCK PRICES


 SEQ CHAPTER h r 1
How Polish Financial Analysts Perceive Macroeconomic,



Political News And Technical Analysis Signals



 



Piotr Zielonka



 



 



Citation:  Zielonka

, P. (2002). How Polish financial analysts perceive macroeconomic,


political news and technical analysis
signals. Financial Counseling and Planning, 13(1).



 



Unpublished
 SEQ CHAPTER h r 1
Appendix
.



Varimax normalized factor loadings – Complete List of Variables.



 


Questionnaire
measures assigned to Factor 1.






















Measure



Factor
1



Factor 2



Factor 3



Factor 4


1



 
Dramatic rise in the value of a buy order



0.88



0.13



0.11



0.01


2



 
High volume in blue chips after a long. horizontal trend



0.84



-0.29



0.17



0.04


3



 
Reduction of interest rates



0.82



-0.04



-0.02



0.02


4



 
After an index fall. a big overbalance of demand



0.81



-0.03



-0.03



0.04


5



 
Dramatic WIG index rise after a horizontal trend



0.80



-0.22



0.05



0.02


6



 
The beginning of an index rise accompanied with high volume after
a long horizontal trend



0.80



-0.04



0.04



0.03


7



 
Bullish situation on the world stock market



0.77



0.15



-0.06



0.23


8



Continuous overdemand



0.75



-0.18



0.13



0.19


9



 
The rise of foreign investment in Polish economy



0.67



0.16



-0.16



0.16


10



 
New foreign investors joining Polish market



0.63



-0.10



-0.23



0.12


11



 
Diminishing inflation



0.61



0.19



0.22



0.23


12



 
New domestic institutional investors on the market



0.60



0.03



-0.13



0.02


13



 
Diminishing in amplitude of fluctuations after a long horizontal
trend 



0.56



0.03



-0.01



0.31


14



 
Right wing nationalist political parties win parliamentary election



-0.40



0.25



-0.10



0.21


15



 
Dramatic WIG index drop after a horizontal trend



-0.37



0.27



-0.33



0.22


16



 
Rising WIG index breaks strong psychological barriers



0.33



-0.05



0.17



0.21


 



 



 



Questionnaire
measures assigned to Factor 2























 



Measure



Factor 1



Factor
2



Factor



3



Factor 4


17



 
After a big rise. WIG index creates a “head and shoulders” formation



0.08



0.73



0.10



0.22


18



 
After a stock price rise. a big overbalance of supply



-0.09



0.69



0.03



0.05


19



 
Moving averages trajectory (13
and 55 weeks) characteristic for bearish market



-0.03



0.62



0.04



-0.10


20



 
WIG index fails to surpass former peaks



-0.14



0.58



-0.09



-0.24


21



 
Observable selling of large amounts of stocks



0.19



0.52



-0.03



-0.16


22



 
Drop in oil prices



-0.08



-0.52



0.11



0.37


23



 
White candle (a kind of Japanese technical analysis)



-0.02



0.50



0.04



0.01


24



Moving averages trajectory (13 and 55 weeks) characteristic for bullish
market



0.47



-0.49



0.12



0.28


25



 
Continuous oversupply



-0.31



0.43



-0.12



0.06


26



 
Positive reports of Polish market by foreign rating agencies



0.11



0.42



0.69



-0.09


27



 
Populist political forces win parliamentary election



0.47



0.42



0.04



0.26


28



 
Dramatic rise in the value of a sell order



-0.08



0.42



0.21



-0.02


29



 
A rise in the total numbers
of orders on a bullish market



-0.03



0.42



-0.56



0.07


30



 
The threat of break up of the present Polish coalition government



0.29



0.41



-0.07



-0.28


31



 
Diminishing dynamics of a rise in blue chips



-0.16



0.39



0.14



-0.13


32



 
Street demonstrations



-0.13



0.38



-0.06



0.09


33



 
Falling WIG breaks strong psychological barriers



0.05



0.36



0.36



-0.17


34


Unstable financial
situation on emerging markets



-0.02



0.28



-0.12



0.06


 


.
Questionnaire measures assigned to Factor 3.



 



 
















 



Measure



Factor 1



Factor 2



Factor
3



Factor 4


35



 
Unstable economic situation in Russia



-0.07



0.09



0.63



-0.06


36



 
High level domestic political affairs



0.30



-0.38



0.60



0.00


37



 
High level foreign political affairs



-0.45



-0.30



0.53



-0.14


38



 
Unstable political situation in Russia



0.21



-0.07



0.48



-0.03


39



 
Post-communist and socialist forces win parliamentary election



0.00



0.05



0.47



-0.06


40



 
Big stock emissions



0.23



0.37



-0.46



-0.01


41



 
Drop in the dynamics of economic growth



0.10



-0.01



0.40



-0.36


42



 
WIG breaks its main rising trend line



0.19



-0.27



-0.39



0.05


43



 
Diminishing unemployment



0.47



0.21



-0.38



0.37


44



 
Drop in zloty to US dollar rate



0.32



-0.11



0.33



-0.17


45



 
The beginning of recession



-0.04



-0.04



0.25



-0.17


 



 



 



 


Questionnaire
measures assigned to Factor 4
















 



Measure



Factor 1



Factor 2



Factor 3



Factor
4


46



 
Increase in dynamics of the indebtedness of the national state
sector



-0.29



-0.23



-0.07



0.75


47



 
Increase in balance-of-payment



-0.10



0.01



0.28



0.72


48



 
Increase in income tax



0.03



-0.02



0.25



0.65


49



 
Increase in budget deficit



-0.13



0.12



0.11



0.60


50



 
Increase in corporate tax



-0.25



0.05



-0.02



0.59


51



 
Increase in the dynamics of privatization



0.30



0.03



-0.35



-0.56


52



 
Industrial production decline



0.08



0.23



0.27



0.45


53



 
Increase in dividend tax 



-0.10



-0.28



-0.17



0.44


54



 
Rise in coal prices



-0.37



-0.20



0.28



0.43


55



 
Diminishing foreign currencies reserves



-0.02



0.34



0.27



0.43


56



 
Drop in blue-chips prices



-0.17



0.28



0.09



0.34


 


.



 



Negative value of a factor loading means that the item was perceived as
having a reverse impact on the future stock prices in comparison to positive
value items.