Drought Intensifies in Northwest Ohio while the South Sees Improvement

Author: Aaron Wilson

Climate Summary

It seems that for the last month or so, Ohio has experienced one decent rainfall every two weeks. That is, for everyone not living in northwest Ohio. Last week was no exception, as a strong cold front and moderate to heavy rain fell across southern and eastern Ohio (Figure 1). A band of intense rainfall (3-5 inches) occurred from Preble County to Madison County in southwest Ohio with a large area of 1-2 inches across the state. Counties in northwest Ohio, however, saw less than a half and inch with this system. The latest U.S. Drought Monitor Report, which again only included observations through Tuesday, October 7, 2025 (and therefore is not reflected in the current map) showed some minor improvements in the south with intensifying drought conditions in west central and northwest Ohio. Approximately 9% of the state is now in D3-extreme drought conditions. Reports indicate decreasing crop moisture, choking dust during harvest, field fires, depleted soil mositure, and historically low river flows (e.g., Maumee in Waterville, Ohio). Please consider submitting your observations to the National Drought Mitigation Center’s Condition Monitoring Observer Reports platform. For the latest drought conditions and agricultural resources, please visit our Drought Conditions and Resources page or the State Climate Office of Ohio.

Figure 1: Total precipitation for the period October 6 – 12, 2025. Figure courtesy of the Iowa Environmental Mesonet.

Weather Forecast

A cold front last week dropped temperatures considerably with daily averages running 5-12°F below normal over the period October 6 – 12, 2025. They have since modified, and we are starting the week out this week with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. A weak, dry front will pass on Wednesday with a slight drop in temperatures for later in the week. Currently, widespread frost and freeze conditions are not expected but patchy frost is possible on Thursday and Friday mornings. Morning fog is also likely throughout the week. Moisture and warmer temperatures ahead of a cold front will surge northward on Saturday, bringing the chance of rain throughout the weekend into early next week. The National Weather Service is currently forecasting 1-2 inches of rain for the bulk of Ohio, with lighter amounts in northwest and southeast counties (Figure 2).

Figure 2: Total precipitation forecast for the period 8pm October 13 – 8am October 20, 2025. Figure courtesy of the National Weather Service Ohio River Forecast Center in Wilmington, Ohio.

The 8-14 day outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for the period of October 21 – 27, 2025 and the 16-Day Rainfall Outlook from NOAA/NWS/Ohio River Forecast Center show warmer than normal temperatures and near normal precipitation are probable (Figure 3). Climatological normals for this period include a high-temperature range of 63-67°F, a low-temperature range of 41-46°F, and weekly total precipitation of 0.55 – 0.75 inches.

Figure 3) Climate Prediction Center 8-14 Day Outlook valid for October 21 – 27, 2025, for left) temperatures and right) precipitation. Colors represent the probability of below, normal, or above normal conditions.