Election Day 2010: What We’ll Be Watching

By Daniel P. Tokaji

Since 2004, the Election Law @ Moritz project has been providing information, analysis and commentary on legal issues surrounding the electoral process. As in past years, we’ll be keeping close track of issues that arise on Election Day. What should we expect? If there’s a general lesson to be learned from past elections, it’s that we should expect the unexpected. Invariably, there are problems that arise which few people anticipated. The problems that wind up seeming most significant will depend, in large part, on which contests wind up being the closest.  With that qualification in mind, here are three issues to which we’ll be paying close attention tomorrow . . .

Since 2004, the Election Law @ Moritz project has been providing information, analysis and commentary on legal issues surrounding the electoral process. As in past years, we’ll be keeping close track of issues that arise on Election Day. Our team of faculty, staff, and students will be following problems that arise at polling places across the country, reporting them on our Information and Analysis page. We’ll pay special attention to any lawsuits filed before, during, or after the polls have begun, with links to key documents appearing on our Major Pending Cases page.

What should we expect? There are some issues that tend to recur in every election – including machines that break down, polling places that open late, and allegations of cheating. When the dust settles, these problems often turn out to be less significant than they first appeared.

If there’s a general lesson to be learned from past elections, it’s that we should expect the unexpected. Invariably, there are problems that arise which few people anticipated. The paradigmatic example is the counting of “hanging chad” punch card ballots in Florida’s 2000 presidential election Another is the protracted post-litigation surrounding absentee ballots in Minnesota’s razor-thin U.S. Senate election in 2008. The problems that wind up seeming most significant will depend, in large part, on which contests wind up being the closest.

With that qualification in mind, here are three issues to which we’ll be paying close attention tomorrow:

1. Alaska’s Write-in Votes. If I had to pick the contest most likely to go into overtime, it would have to be Alaska. That’s not because it’s the closest race (although it certainly could be close), but because of the write-in candidacy of Republican incumbent Lisa Murkowski, who’s in a three-way contest with Democrat Scott McAdams and Republican nominee Joe Miller. What makes this race especially intriguing, at least for election lawyers, is the mix of state and federal legal issues surrounding lists of write-in candidates provided by the Alaska Division of Elections. A state trial court issues an injunction against state election authorities, but that order was reversed by the state supreme court, which allowed lists to be provided – but, importantly, without information about write-in candidates’ party affiliation. On Saturday, Alaska voters filed a federal lawsuit challenging the state supreme court’s order on the ground that the change in election rules it mandates hasn’t been precleared, as required by Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act. My initial take is that there’s a strong argument that federal law has been violated . . . and that things could get really messy, if the election winds up being close.

2. Dueling Claims of Fraud and Suppression. When it comes to claims of fraudulent voting, the partisan lines of battle are now clearly drawn. Republicans tend to claim that fraud is rampant. (Remember Senator McCain’s 2008 claim that ACORN was “on the verge of maybe perpetrating one of the greatest frauds in voter history in this country, maybe destroying the fabric of democracy”?) On the other hand, Democrats tend to be more concerned about the risk of voter suppression. That includes the risk that seemingly neutral rules, like voter ID, will have a discriminatory effect on racial minorities and other Democratic-leaning groups. It also includes the risk of challenges to voter eligibility being used to intimidate voters, a concern that the Advancement Project expresses here. A new wrinkle this year are the efforts of Tea Party-aligned groups like True the Vote. Though the group proclaims its mission to be the promotion of electoral integrity, Texas Democrats worry that an effect (if not the purpose) of its efforts will be to intimidate minority voters, particularly Latinos.

3. Provisional and Absentee Ballots. With the U.S. Senate and House up for grabs, and so many gubernatorial races in play, it’s hard to say what elections will be closest. What we do know is that, if an election goes into overtime, it’s likely to be decided by disputes over provisional and/or absentee ballots. Provisional ballots are typically cast by voters whose names aren’t on the list, who lack required ID, or (in some states) who have moved before the election day. Required by HAVA, they are heavily used in some states, including Ohio and California. If there’s a close election in one of those states, we can count on there being a dispute – and possibly litigation – over which provisionals get counted. The same goes for absentee ballots, including those cast by military and overseas voters pursuant to the Uniformed and Overseas Citizens Absentee Voting Act (UOCAVA). On Friday, a federal court issued an injunction against Maryland election officials, finding that the state’s process for UOCAVA voters would probably violate their constitutional rights. More broadly, upwards of 30% of votes were cast before election day in 2008. But as Charles Stewart noted here, only 28 million of the 36 million absentee ballots requested were actually counted – meaning that around 8 million votes somehow “leaked” out of the absentee ballot pipeline. In a close election, we can expect disputes and maybe even lawsuits over whether absentee ballots with technical defects (like being marked incorrectly or coming in past the deadline) should be counted.

These are just some of the issues we’ll have our eye on tomorrow. So stay tuned. It should be a busy day and it will probably be a long night. In some places – perhaps even when it comes to control of the Senate or (less likely) the House – election law questions may keep the outcome in doubt for weeks to come.

Instant Runoff Voting as a “Game Changing” Alternative Voting System?

By Kevin Oles

Instant Runoff Voting as a “Game Changing” Alternative Voting System?

Campaigns are exciting, emotionally charged political battles. Each year, as candidates fight for endorsements, contributions, and votes, it seems these political battles become increasingly bitter, partisan, and polarized. While “polarization” is a word with many uses in politics, I use polarization as a measure of the level of division of political opinion and rhetoric into, and along, party lines. Scholars who study this field report that polarization (both amongst candidates and voters) started increasing sharply in 1965, continuing to increase in every election cycle. Although individual candidates attempt to break this trend, campaigning positively, too often external forces pressure candidates into dividing the election and the electorate. Thus, if we think depolarization is a good thing, changing the systems that pressure candidates to polarize likely will decrease overall polarization.

Plurality voting, or “first past the post” voting is the current, familiar voting system used in most elections in the United States. Plurality voting systems define “winning” an election as receiving the most votes cast. In fact, some of the other election law commentators on this site have noted that plurality voting will be tested this year.

Instant Runoff Voting (IRV) defines winning differently, requiring that winning candidates receive a majority of votes cast. IRV requires that voters rank candidates: some IRV variations ask for voters’ top three candidates, while other IRV systems require voters rank the entire ballot. Votes are then counted in a series of rounds. In the first voting round, voters’ first place votes are counted; if a candidate receives a majority of votes, that candidate wins. If no majority arises, the candidate who receives the least number of votes is removed from the next round of counting. Voters who ranked the dropped candidate first have their votes counted in the second round based on their second choice votes. The second round of voting proceeds in the same manner: the votes are tallied and either one candidate receives a majority or the candidate receiving the fewest votes is removed (and votes are redistributed based on their next level of choices). This cycle repeats until one candidate receives a majority of votes.

While IRV seems convoluted, looking at an example of IRV voting makes the process clear. The 2009 mayoral race in Burlington, Vermont, was a three-candidate race (a Democrat, a Progressive, and a Republican), and after the first round of counting votes, no candidate received a majority:

Democrat Andy Montroll—29%

Progressive Bob Kiss—34%

Republican Kurt Wright—37%

The candidate with the fewest votes, Andy Montroll, was eliminated for the second round of voting; voters who ranked Montroll first had their second round votes counted based on their second choice votes. In the instant runoff second round, Progressive Bob Kiss received a majority of votes and won the election.

Looking at current three-way races, we begin to see the depolarizing effect of IRV. Using recent poll numbers, an IRV thought experiment demonstrates the difference in results between plurality and IRV. In Florida, if the Senate election occurred today under a plurality system, Republican Marco Rubin would win, but would not be elected by a majority of voters, merely the largest bloc of voters:

Marco Rubin (R)—40%

Kendrick Meek (D)—22%

Charlie Crist (I)—30%

IRV voting alters the results—no candidate receives a majority in the first round, so voting moves to a second round. Meek is removed and his voters’ second choice candidate becomes relevant.

Furthering this experiment, let us assume that voters who ranked Meek first would choose Crist as their second place vote. In the second round, head-to-head between Crist and Rubin, Crist receives an additional 22% of the votes (those voters who ranked Meek first and Crist second) and achieves a majority.

IRV

First Round Second Round

Rubin—40% 40%

Meek—22% (dropped) 0 (out after first round)

Crist—30% 52% (30 + 22)

The Florida thought experiment indicates the depolarizing pressure of IRV—its voting design has a direct effect on results. Consider campaign strategy under the plurality voting, where candidates attempt to do two things: (1) maximize the number of votes cast by their faction of voters; and (2) encourage non-faction voters to join their faction. Motivating voters through partisan attacks, negative campaigning, and polarizing the electorate are effective, proven methods of campaigning and winning an election. Candidates encourage their factions to think in an “us versus them” mentality that creates deep divides across partisan lines. Plurality voting simply does not provide candidates with incentives to bridge gaps, ally factions, or work across divergent opinions; rather, polarization increases unchecked.

IRV diminishes the value gained from encouraging voters to think in partisan categories, because the system requires voters to compare and contrast the entire ballot of candidates, thinking not in a binary “yes/no” manner. Thus, even though major party candidates could split the vote in a first ballot, an independent candidate could win in later rounds because IRV voters will prefer an independent candidate to an opposing party candidate with their second and third place votes. Thus, candidates under IRV do not achieve the same results when campaigning by polarizing the electorate as they do with plurality voting—polarization may ensure votes from their own faction, but the most divisive candidates will not earn necessary second and third choice votes.

IRV reduces gains from dividing the electorate because candidates cannot earn the valuable votes that come from outside their faction. Instead, IRV pressures candidates to appeal to diverse groups of voters instead of alienating them—decreasing partisanship through systemic change. Candidates in IRV cannot win by motivating their electoral base to voting en masse. Looking back to Florida’s Senate race illustrates this point: IRV allows voters to think of themselves in comparison to party and faction positions, and negative attacks have the distinct possibility of alienating voters. In fact, San Francisco’s IRV system has been singled out because of its ability to reduce partisanship between candidates.

IRV’s emphasis on uniting factions concords campaign action with our Founders’ beliefs about voting and factionalism in politics. Madison, in Federalist No. 10, wrote that while it was impossible to remove the causes of factionalism, a sufficiently large democracy would extinguish the kindled flames of any particular faction. Madison wrote that majority rule required that factions ally interests with other factions, mitigating the deleterious effects of a single faction. Madison realized that requiring a majority when voting makes it “less probable that a majority of the whole will have a common motive to invade the rights of other citizens. . . .“

IRV is not the panacea to all problems of polarization and negative campaigning. IRV’s depolarizing effect does not arise in head-to-head elections; a majority is assured in the first round, thus candidates can divide and polarize without the risk of losing the election. Additionally, IRV can also lead to a winner that is almost no one’s first choice. For example, as the second and third choice votes come into play, a candidate who squeaked into later rounds by being marginally better than the eliminated candidates can win by being every voters’ best alternative to giving votes to the opposing party. As a result, while a candidate might lose in a head-to-head race, under IRV, that same candidate wins as an acceptable alternative.

IRV’s has certainly become a “buzzword” amongst those who study elections, as Britain moves to IRV in 2011 and some U.S. cities have adopted IRV. It is clear that IRV can change current campaign tactics that result in bitter political fights and polarized elections. While immediately changing every election to IRV is not the answer, it is worthwhile to watch this developing voting trend and see what changes IRV does engender.

More Voting by Mail? First, Consider the Hidden Costs

By Charles Stewart III

Kenan Sahin Distinguished Professor of Political Science
The Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Montana’s Secretary of State Linda McCulloch recently announced she would file a bill with her state legislature to move Montana to all-mail elections. In so doing, she cited the growing number of Montanans who already vote by mail, through the absentee ballot process, and the rising per-voter costs of staffing traditional in-person precincts that fewer voters are using.

The reliance on vote-by-mail has certainly grown. Oregon and Washington now vote entirely by mail; among the remaining states, the percentage of ballots cast absentee (which is almost all done by mail) has grown from 4% in 1992 to 14% in 2008. (About one-quarter of Montanans voted absentee in 2008.)

Election administrators have good reasons to want to move more balloting to the postal service. Vote-by-mail is cheaper. It also removes a major barrier to the consistent application of election laws, by eliminating the need to hire and train precinct poll workers. In these difficult economic times, isn’t a cheaper, administratively simpler method of voting a no-brainer?

Not if the policy costs outweigh the savings. Unfortunately, the policy costs — which come in the form of lost votes, decreased legitimacy, and a further skewing of the composition of the electorate — are real. Also unfortunate is the fact that policy analysts and election geeks (me included) have largely ignored these costs as they have analyzed the growth of voting by mail. One defense against not studying the policy costs of voting by mail is that the data just haven’t been available. However, data that bear on the policy costs of voting by mail have begun trickling in, and the initial look is sobering.

The first cost is lost votes. The problem of lost votes was highlighted in the Florida 2000 recount in Palm Beach County with the appearance of the veritable bestiary of chad — hanging, pregnant, swinging, and the like. Something like pregnant chad is a great example of votes being lost through no fault of the voter, because virtually the only way pregnant chad could be produced was if the holding device had not been properly cleaned. Research over the past decade has established solid evidence that most of what used to show up as “blank,” “over-voted,” and “under-voted” ballots in presidential elections — what is now lumped together under the rubric of “residual votes” — was due to some artifact of the machine the voter was using. A goal of the Help America Vote Act (HAVA) was to retire systems that were prone to inducing residual votes, like Votomatic punch cards, in favor of devices that helped save voters from common errors, such as precinct-count optical scanners or direct-recording electronic devices.

Less obvious, but just as important, HAVA provided incentives and mandates that were aimed at reducing even more important causes of lost votes, by improving voter registration systems and encouraging the improvement of election administration practices.

HAVA was mostly oriented toward making sure that if a voter woke up on Election Day intending to vote for president, the vote would be counted at the end of the day. The Act had a very traditional focus on in-precinct voting. HAVA had virtually nothing to say about the lost votes problem from the mail-in ballot end of the process — probably because the problem was invisible in Florida, as it is nationwide. Very little attention has been paid to this problem in any systematic way. We had no idea how big this problem might be.

Until now.

Buried deep within the Election Assistance Commission’s (EAC) 2008 Election Administration and Voting Survey (EAVS) is a series of questions that ask local jurisdictions about the workflow associated with absentee voting by mail in 2008. In addition, the 2008 Survey on the Performance of American Elections (SPAE), conducted by my colleagues at the Caltech/MIT Voting Technology Project (VTP), helps provide evidence about voters who asked for absentee ballots, only never to receive them. Putting these studies together, we have the best evidence about how many people requested absentee ballots in 2008 and, in the end, how many were counted.

The top- and bottom-lines are these: it looks like 36 million people requested mail ballots in 2008, whereas only 28 million absentee ballots were counted, leading to a “leakage” in the absentee ballot pipeline of 8 million ballots, or roughly 20% of requests.

Where did the leaks occur? The data from these studies suggest that 4 million ballots were requested but not received, 3 million were transmitted but not returned for counting, and 800,000 ballots were returned for counting, but rejected.

Are these lost votes, in the same sense of pregnant chad? No. Are they the same as lost votes due to registration mix-ups or poor polling place places? Perhaps.

The leaky pipeline statistics quoted above need to be treated as the preliminary estimates they are. Here are some things to consider when assessing these estimates of lost votes via the mails in 2008: (1) the data sources are new and incomplete, (2) respondents to the SPAE may have rationalized why they didn’t vote, (3) some people who requested absentee ballots may have eventually gone in to vote at a precinct, and (4) local officials may have rejected many absentee ballots out of an abundance of caution over concerns about fraud.

These estimates are a beginning, not the end, of a discussion about how many voters who rely on the mails to cast a ballot actually have their vote counted on Election Day.

Still, what if the “real” lost vote rate for absentee ballots wasn’t 20%, but just 2%? It would still be greater than the in-precinct lost vote rate.

These figures only try to estimate votes that are lost through the supply pipeline of mail-in balloting. What about the ballots that are returned and accepted for counting?

Here is where we encounter the promise of HAVA in polling-place voting falling short in the case of mail-in balloting. HAVA required that ballots voted in a precinct have some safeguard against over-voting; no such safeguards exist for voting by mail. Not surprisingly, the residual vote rate for absentee balloting is greater than for in-precinct voting. For instance, in Florida in 2008, the residual vote rate for Election Day voting in Florida was 0.54%, compared to 0.78% for absentee voting. While not huge, this difference does represent a total of almost 4,600 ballots, a number that well exceeds the vote margin of some recent close elections in that state.

The second cost is the legitimacy of election outcomes. This is where one claim of Secretary McCullough needs to be examined, which is that after visiting groups involved in voting in Oregon, they “loved voting by mail.”

Well, yes and no.

In the Survey of the Performance of America Elections (SPAE), which I mentioned above, we asked voters nationwide whether they favored a series of voting reforms, including whether elections should all be run by mail. Nationwide, the proposal was a dud, garnering support from only 15% of all respondents. A majority of voters in only two states favored vote-by-mail — not surprisingly, in Oregon (64%) and Washington (51%). The next-closest state was Arizona, at 27% support. (Montana was number six, at 22% support.)

While Secretary McCullough was referring to groups in Oregon who administer elections as “loving” vote-by-mail, not the citizens at large, it is hard to characterize all of Oregon, and certainly Washington, as embracing it. Most support it, but even in Oregon — a state that adopted vote-by-mail by referendum — it seems that a solid minority wish the Beaver State continued to use traditional polling places.

This division over whether voting by mail is a good idea in Oregon and Washington has consequences for how voters judge the election outcomes. The SPAE asked respondents if they were confident their vote was counted as cast. Nationwide, the percentage answering “very confident” was 64%. In Washington, the percentage was 48%; in Oregon, it was 59%. What is interesting is that in these two states confidence in the vote count was related to whether one favored voting by mail, which is not true of voters nationwide. Among the residents of Oregon and Washington, supporters of voting by mail were close to the national average in trusting the quality of the vote count. Among the opponents, less than half were confident their vote was counted as cast.

This suggests that one effect of sanctioning universal voting by mail in Oregon and Washington, has been the creation of a solid minority of voters who doubt the wisdom of the move. Many of them are convinced that the vote count is flawed. As a result, Oregon and Washington voters express among the least confidence that their vote was counted as cast among voters nationwide, as least as measured in this survey.

The third cost is in the composition of the electorate. The best research into the effects of vote-by-mail suggests three things. First, the only elections in which turnout is clearly higher is in local elections, where turnout is already homeopathic. Second, in the biennial general elections, turnout generally does not go up; people who used to drop out of the electorate are more likely to be retained, but new people are not systematically added to the electorate. This leads us to the third point: over time, the net effect of voting by mail is to shift the composition of the electorate toward people who are wealthy and well educated. Voting by mail doesn’t expand the electorate overall, while making it less representative.

What should Montana, or any state considering going over entirely to vote by mail, do? Should they abandon the thought? Not necessarily. The purpose of pointing out the (until now) hidden potential policy costs of universal vote-by-mail elections is to make citizens and policymakers more aware of the potential costs, in terms of democratic values, that this form of voting imposes. Perhaps the trade-offs are worth it. Perhaps the perils could be minimized with some creative thinking.

There is also a middle alternative, between continuing to support the dual system of highly decentralized precincts plus mail-in absentees, on the one hand, and complete vote-by-mail, on the other. That is to allow absentee balloting to continue as-is, while moving to a small number of vote centers, dispersed around a county, that are opened for early voting a couple of weeks ahead of the traditional Election Day. (Some states already have these, but often call them “satellite absentee ballot centers.”) On Election Day, use only the vote centers.

A vote center is an office that is set up to allow a voter who lives anywhere in a county to receive the appropriate ballot and cast it on the spot. Implementing vote centers requires an investment of money, intensive communication with voters, and the deployment of new technologies, such as electronic poll books and ballot-on-demand systems. Even with these investments, local governments could still reap most of the savings and administrative improvements envisioned by vote-by-mail if they just closed hundreds of small precincts and opened a few vote centers. That way, voters who wished to avail themselves of the communal aspects of voting, or avail themselves of the safeguards against over-voting, could do that. And, there is even evidence that Election Day voting centers increase voter turnout.

State and local election officials are coping with budgetary shortfalls, just like the rest of state and local governments, and this work is rarely given adequate funding, even in the best of times. Proposals to save money through precinct consolidations and more voting by mail will only increase in number. As this happens, it will be important for everyone who cares about economy in government and the quality of elections to take a serious look at the hidden costs of these changes. Otherwise, we risk a new lost-votes epidemic of our own making.

Reinforcing Voting as a Communal Act

By Terri L. Enns

Voting, while certainly an individual act, is also a communal one that includes the intention to impact the larger community. Historically, that communal reality was reinforced in the voter’s mind on Election Day, the single day on which people voted, whether the election be a primary, special, or general election. With voting already underway in 39 states, it is worth considering whether there are institutional and structural ways to keep alive that sense of ”the important communal civic event of a single election day.”[i]

In the past, on Election Day voters would join their friends and neighbors at their polling places, which were for the most part located in civically-oriented buildings, either schools or churches. Campaigns focused their energies on a single day, and organized volunteers to get people to the polls on that day. All activity was geared toward the day of decision-making when voters would cast their votes. These features combined to remind voters that they were casting votes that would choose representatives and policies not only for themselves, but for the entire community.

Over the past twenty-five years, various innovations in the voting process have changed that pattern so that by 2004, nearly one in four votes took place on a day other than Election Day.[ii] Absentee balloting, formerly reserved for those people with a clear reason–usually absence from home or some other inability to come to the polling place–is now available in many states for anyone who requests an absentee ballot. In-person early voting is also increasingly available. Oregon and Washington mandates vote-by-mail, and other states are currently experimenting with vote-by-mail for some types of elections.

The main reason for the changes from single day, single location elections is the convenience of the voter. The ubiquity of cell phones should be enough proof that as a society we do not like to be tied to a single location. Work schedules, family arrangements, and personal preferences all provide fodder for arguing against a single day for voting. For many, underlying the convenience rationale is the assumption that a more convenient system will increase voter participation. However, as logical as that rationale seems, the data appear to show that participation does not increase; rather, the people who would have voted anyhow are just voting at different times and places.[iii]

Despite the lack of evidence of increased participation, these more convenient forms of voting are no doubt here to stay. Sufficient numbers of nonvoters cite convenience-related reasons for their failure to vote[iv] to quiet any move to return to the systems in place twenty years ago. Instead, what follows are some suggestions about institutional means to strengthen the sense of shared civic responsibility while retaining the increased convenience that we’ve come to assume:

Reduce the number of days for early voting: While a single day for voting is inadequate to accommodate contemporary work schedules and lifestyles, it seems overly-generous for people to have the option to begin voting six to eight weeks before an election. What is the added value of voting more than a week prior to the traditional Election Day? In addition to adding costs and allowing people to vote without the benefits of information coming at the end of full campaigns, these long voting periods can dilute focus on the election.

Establish a Voting Holiday: As with Independence Day and Veterans’ Day, turning voting day (at least for general elections) into a holiday would provide a more intense focus on the civic nature of voting. Many work conflicts would be eliminated, and adding a couple of voting days before the holiday itself would be sufficient to do away with most scheduling conflicts. As a nation, we are used to using holidays to signify important cultural events, and voting combines many of the values celebrated by other holidays.

Locate all polling places in civic buildings: While I have not noticed any trends toward voting in private establishments, it is worth a reminder that the location of voting impacts the ways in which people vote. Some research indicates that “environmental cues” may influence the way that voters behave. The study looked at the impact of voting in a school or voting in a church, and found that polling locations have a small but measurable influence on votes. If that is true, then paying close attention to the types of buildings used as polling places is an important way to reinforce the idea that voting is a communal act.

We should be deliberate about retaining the structural reminders of the communal nature of voting, even while embracing convenience. There is some irony in the fact that voting used to take place on a single day, and then the populous was willing to wait for weeks and months for the official results of that single day of voting. Now, we spend weeks voting, but then expect the results of all that voting to be available before we go to sleep on what is now the the last day of a voting season. Part of the reason we are eager to learn the outcome is that we know that all members of society will be impacted by the results of elections. Our structures need to remind us of that fact while we are in the act of deliberating about our choices and casting our votes, not only as we await the tally of everyone else’s votes.



[i] John C. Fortier, Absentee and Early Voting: Trends, Promises, and Perils. The AEI Press, Washington, D.C., 2006, p. 5.

[ii] Id., p. 19.

[iii] Id., p. 42,45.

[iv] Id., p. 47.

The Rise of 501(c)(4)s in campaign activity: Are they as clever as they think?

By Donald B. Tobin

According to some, 501(c)(4)s are the perfect advocacy organization for independent third parties seeking to influence elections; they can take unlimited donations and do not have to disclose the names of donors. If (c)(4)s can operate this way, they become a perfect mechanism for corporate influence in campaigns and also fundamentally destroy the few checks that are left on the corruptive influence of large contributions in political campaigns.

Even before Citizen’s United we saw a significant increase in the use of 501(c)(4) tax-exempt “Social Welfare Organizations” as vehicles for advocacy in election campaigns. In a recent article in The New York Times, Michael Luo and Stephanie Strom examine the use of 501(c)(4) organizations in political advocacy. They note the attractiveness of these organizations for large contributors because in most cases these organizations do not have to disclose donations to the organizations. According to proponents of the use of (c)(4)s, they are the perfect advocacy organization for independent third parties seeking to influence elections; they can take unlimited donations and do not have to disclose the names of donors. If proponents are correct that (c)(4)s can operate this way, (c)(4)s become a perfect mechanism for corporate influence in campaigns and also fundamentally destroy the few checks that are left on the corruptive influence of large contributions in political campaigns.

What is important to distinguish, however, is whether the proponents are in fact correct. In most cases, the (c)(4)s formed to engage in independent advocacy are not complying with the law. As Luo and Strom explain in their article, enforcement in this area is difficult, and the IRS is both underfunded and unequipped to handle large-scale regulation in this area. The question, however, is not whether (c)(4)s can get away with this behavior in the short run, but whether their interpretations are in fact correct and whether their actions are legal. If their actions are illegal, then there are actions that can be taken to rein in large-scale abuse.

Prior to highlighting methods of reining in the abuse of (c)(4)s, it is important to understand the requirements for different tax-exempt organizations. In general, organizations seek some type of organizational structure with which to conduct their activities. Since Citizens United, organizations can engage in campaign activities through a for-profit corporation. There are also tax-exempt organizations that can be used to engage in political discourse. Section 501(c)(3) organizations are what we think of as typical non-profit organizations. These are religious institutions, charities, educational institutions, etc. Contributions to these organizations are deductible and income related to the organization’s exempt purpose is not taxed. These organizations, however, may not intervene in an election campaign for or against a candidate for public office. Some (c)(3) organizations push the envelope, but for the most part, these organizations stay out of large scale campaign advocacy. (For more on the use of (c)(3)s in political campaigns see Campaigning by Churches and Charities).

Section 501(c)(4) organizations are “social welfare organizations” and donations to these organizations are not tax deductible (and are likely subject to gift tax), but income generated by the organization related to its exempt-purpose is not taxed. Social welfare organizations must be organized primarily (although the statute says exclusively) for a social welfare purpose and political campaign advocacy is not a social welfare purpose. The regulations governing (c)(4) organizations provide that an organization qualifies as a (c)(4) if “it is primarily engaged in promoting in some way the common good and general welfare of the people of the community.” The regulations further provide that “the promotion of social welfare does not include direct or indirect participation or intervention in political campaigns on behalf of or in opposition to any candidate for public office.” See Treas. Reg. 1.501(c)(4)-1(a)(2)(i) and (ii). Intervention in a political campaign has been defined broadly by the IRS, and it is the IRS’s definition, not the FEC’s definition that applies in this instance.

Finally, section 527 of the Code was created for political organizations. Section 527 organizations are organizations whose primary purpose is to influence the “selection, nomination, election, or appointment of any individual to any federal, state or local public office.” Section 527 organizations are not subject to tax on its exempt function income, contributions to 527 organizations are not deductible, but contributions to 527s are not subject to gift tax. Section 527 organizations, however, are subject to a disclosure regime that requires disclosure of contributions and expenditures. If organizations do not disclose, they are subject to tax on non-disclosed contributions and expenditures.

So in short, 501(c)(4) organizations are supposed to be primarily engaged in social welfare, are not subject to tax on income, and may engage in a limited amount of intervention in a political campaign. Section 527 organizations are designed for political advocacy. Contributions to the organizations are not income, but the organizations are required to disclose contributions and expenditures or face additional tax.

Current advocates of using (c)(4)s as campaign advocacy vehicles are distorting the law and often are mischaracterizing their activities. If they are truly lobbying to promote their social welfare purpose, then they are properly (c)(4) organizations. But if they are engaged in intervention in a political campaign, and they are trying to cloak their activities as lobbying, they are violating both the spirit and the substance of the statute. Under campaign finance jurisprudence, they may be able to use such trickery, but it is usually not accepted in tax jurisprudence.

The distinction is important here. It is not by mistake that (c)(4)s do not have to disclose while 527 political organizations do. Social welfare organizations were not designed to be vehicles for promoting candidates; they were designed to promote social welfare. The promotion of social welfare may include lobbying on issues related to the organization’s social purpose. There is an argument that these types of activities do not pose the same concerns with regard to the corruptive influence of money in political campaigns that is present when organizations intervene in political campaigns. A statutory scheme that requires disclosure for campaign intervention but not for lobbying and the promotion of social welfare therefore makes sense. If organizations are able to mask campaign intervention as lobbying, then the check on corruption present in the current statutory scheme will be subverted.

The question really is what type of enforcement mechanism exists to constrain entities that are improperly characterizing themselves as (c)(4)s. It is one thing to say that these entities can get away with organizing as a (c)(4) and another thing to say that it is legal. The fact that enforcement is lacking does not make the action legal.

Why does it matter? If it is illegal but the illegality is unenforced, won’t the action continue? The answer is maybe, but at some point, there are consequences to people who subvert the law and are too clever. So here are some proscriptive solutions for limiting the abuse of (c)(4)s.

First, the IRS could take stronger action against such organizations. In many cases, these organizations are violating the law. If procedural mechanisms are not in place to properly regulate these organizations (like the fact that they do not necessarily file tax forms when they are created so the IRS may not know who they are), the IRS has the power to change those regulations.

Second, the IRS can reclassify these organizations as 527 organizations and assess tax based on the organizations’ failure to disclose contributions and expenditures. An organization is not a 501(c)(4) organization simply because it says so. Section 527 specifically defines organizations that are 527 organizations. There is no opt-out provision. So even if an organization says it is a 501(c)(4) organization, it may actually be a 527 organization and thus subject to disclosure requirements of a 527 organization.

Third, when disclosure provisions were enacted as part of section 527 it was a compromise between no disclosure and an earlier bill that would have required disclosure of 501(c)(4) and 527 organizations. If 501(c)(4)s continue to be used to subvert the disclosure provisions in section 527, Congress could create disclosure provisions in (c)(4) for those organizations who rely on “lobbying” as their primary social welfare purpose. (As an aside, § 501(c)(4) could be amended as part of budget reconciliation and therefore could be modified with only 51 votes, thus potentially avoiding concerns that modifications could be easily filibustered).

Fourth, The New York Times article states that one of the problems is that these organizations may disappear as soon as the election is over. In this instance, lawyers who are setting up these organizations have an ethical responsibility under our Professional Responsibility rules not to assist others in engaging in illegal activities. If these are campaign advocacy organizations masquerading as social welfare organizations, lawyers cannot participate in setting up or advising these organizations. Lawyers are prohibited from assisting a client in engaging in an illegal activity. Lawyers cannot assist in such an activity even if there is lax enforcement, and the lawyer believes the client can get away with it. It is this type of attitude that brought us Worldcom, Enron, and some of the downfall in the financial industry. Lawyers are not allowed to counsel people to cheat on their taxes even though there is little chance they will get caught, and they are not allowed to counsel people to create (c)(4) organizations when they are not (c)(4) organizations. Moreover, the Treasury has implemented specific ethical rules under Circular 230, which governs practice before the IRS. Those rules are often stricter than state bar rules and the rules under circular 230 would likely apply in this instance.

Fifth, the IRS could start assessing gift tax on donations to (c)(4) organizations. While there is a statutory exemption from the gift tax for contributions to (c)(3) and 527 organizations, there is no such exemption for (c)(4)s. If large donors were subject to gift tax on their contributions, (c)(4)s would be a lot less attractive as a campaign vehicle.

So are proponents of 501(c)(4)s as smart as they think? Probably, if smarts are measured by what they can get away with in the short run. But if their point is that they have found a legal way to engage in secret campaign advocacy, they are wrong, on both moral and legal grounds. The question is not whether the IRS, Congress, or local bars have the power to limit this abuse, they certainly do. The question is whether we are going to be serious about disclosure in a post-Citizens United campaign finance system. If (c)(4)s can be used as independent campaign advocacy organizations with no disclosure requirements, then there will be no check on the corruptive influence of large campaign contribution and our democracy will surely suffer.

Thoughts on the Alabama Indictments

By Donald B. Tobin

The Department of Justice announced its indictment today of 11 people in Alabama for allegedly engaging in  a conspiracy to buy and sell votes on state legislation. The indictment reminds us that our system does need some controls and that unethical individuals will attempt to use money to subvert the democratic process.

The Department of Justice announced its indictment today of 11 people in Alabama for allegedly engaging in a “wide ranging conspiracy to buy and sell votes on legislation in Alabama that would directly benefit the business interests of two of the defendants.” The indictments remind us that election law, election administration, and lobbying rules are essential to a well-run democratic system. We often believe that bribery, corruption and vote buying are things of the past. In this context, campaign finance regulation, restrictions on lobbyists, and disclosure provisions may appear to be unneeded government regulation.

The indictment, however, reminds us that our system does need some controls and that unethical individuals will attempt to use money to subvert the democratic process. Opponents of government regulation will argue that if these actions in fact happened, bribery law will sufficiently punish those involved in this incident and that the government managed to indict these individuals without McCain-Feingold campaign finance regulation.

But, the indictment also highlights the fear of many election law advocates of the corruptive influence of money on politics. The indictment is full of alleged activity that shows that the accused were aware of election and ethics laws and were trying to subvert those laws. Obviously, the more lax the laws are, the easier they are to subvert.

The indictment alleges that some of the accused offered to provide payments and campaign contributions to legislators “in a manner that would conceal the true nature, source, and control of the money and the fact that it was being provided by [defendants] with the assistance of lobbyists . . . to the legislators in return for their favorable votes on and support of pro-gambling legislation.” The indictment further alleges that some of the defendants offered to provide “campaign contributions, campaign appearances by country music celebrities, political polls, media buys, fundraising assistance, offers to pay money to opposition candidates in return for their withdrawal from races, and other things of value, to incumbent legislators and candidates for election to the Legislature . . . in return for . . . promising to vote for, and voting for, pro-gambling legislation.”

One exchange printed in the indictment highlights the interaction between campaign finance regulation and the bribery alleged here. One defendant was quoted in the indictment as saying:

“I would suggest that that look something like—and, again, it is up to you for what you would want to use it for—but basically there is a million dollars of business that is going to come through that PR entity, one way or the another, you know, annually.”

The defendant then indicated:

“There are some oddities to how we would want to do it because, you, as you know on the ethics reporting, if there’s any tie to an organization that is lobbying a legislature, technically they have to announce that there is a business connection. And when they do then obviously everyone’s gonna look at it whether it’s totally legit or whatever.

So you got to find a backdoor way, which is basically you have, then, an entity that is not related per se to [GILLEY’s business] whatever that may be. Um, it’s some subsidiary that is disconnected and isn’t required to be registered as a lobbyist, and you meet all those thresholds. Um, we get all that worked out, that’s not a big deal. But, in effect, that PR entity does two things. One, it gives you ability to do some other things, um, have that structure. But then also you got that revenue that’s, I mean, use it for campaigns. You can use it individually or whatever.”

What is clear from the indictment is that campaign finance provisions and ethics disclosure provisions were influencing the behavior of defendants and made their bribery scheme harder.

Because of the Supreme Court’s recent decision in Citizens United, there will be a significant increase of corporate and union money in political campaigns. Moreover, recent press reports have indicated that groups are attempting to use 501(c)(4) tax-exempt organizations as vehicles for campaign advocacy because those organizations are not required to disclose donors. While bribery laws may be sufficient to deter unwanted behavior here (if in fact it occurred), the law post-Citizens United provides more mechanisms for money to be funneled toward favored candidates. This indictment should remind us that election law and ethics regulations are important tools in limiting the corruptive influence of money in politics. At the very least, the recent indictment confirms that the health of our democratic systems depend on fair and honest elections and fair and independent legislators.

The Persistence of Partisan Election Administration

By Daniel P. Tokaji

It has been almost ten years since the disputed election that gave rise to Bush v. Gore, the Help America Vote Act of 2002 (HAVA), and a number of related election reforms in the states.  Notwithstanding these significant changes, a fundamental problem at the heart of the 2000 election debacle has yet to be solved.  Ten years ago, many observers suspected bias on the part of election officials responsible for the recount, including Florida Secretary of State Katherine Harris.  In over 30 states, the chief election official – usually the secretary of state – is still elected as the candidate of one of the major parties.  This creates an inherent conflict of interest between election officials’ duty to discharge their duties to all citizens and their own personal and political interests.

It has been almost ten years since the disputed election that gave rise to Bush v. Gore, the Help America Vote Act of 2002 (HAVA), and a number of related election reforms in the states. In some respects, this has been a time of great progress. We have eliminated punch card voting machines and moved to statewide registration lists. We offer provisional ballots to voters who registered but don’t find their names on the list when they show up to vote. And the process has been made more convenient, with over 30% of Americans voting before election day through absentee and in-person early voting in 2008.

Notwithstanding these significant changes, a fundamental problem at the heart of the 2000 election debacle has yet to be solved. Ten years ago, many observers suspected bias on the part of election officials responsible for the recount, including Florida Secretary of State Katherine Harris as well as local election officials. Similar concerns surrounded the 2004 presidential election, particularly actions taken by Ohio’s Secretary of State Ken Blackwell – most infamously, the requirement that registration applications be on 80-pound paper weight. More recently, Republicans have raised concerns of partisan bias on the part of Democratic election officials, including Minnesota’s Secretary of State in the contested U.S. Senate election in 2008.

Whether or not these officials have acted based on partisan bias is impossible to know for sure. What can be said with confidence is that conflicts of interest are a pervasive problem in U.S. election administration. In over 30 states, the chief election official – usually the secretary of state – is elected as the candidate of one of the major parties. And in most of the remaining states, the chief election official is selected by a party-affiliated official, usually the state’s governor. Both systems create an inherent conflict of interest between election officials’ duty to discharge their duties to all citizens and their own personal and political interests. The situation is not much better at the local level. Party-affiliated election officials run election in almost half of the local election jurisdictions in the U.S.

This state of affairs is directly contrary to an emerging international consensus that election administrators should be insulated from partisan politics. According to the influential European Commission for Democracy Through Law: “Only transparency, impartiality and independence from politically motivated manipulation will ensure proper administration of the election process, from the pre-election period to the end of the processing of results.” For the most part, the persons and institutions running American elections lack such impartiality and independence.

Recognizing this conflict of interest is the easy part; solving the problem is much more difficult. Bipartisan boards can also be dysfunctional too, as my colleague Ned Foley has noted with reference to New York’s recent experience. The best American model is Wisconsin’s Government Accountability Board, which consists of retired judges selected in a way that is designed to promote impartiality. Other countries, including Canada, Australia, and India, have election administration bodies insulated from partisan politics that might also serve as a model for reform in the U.S.

Unfortunately, it is not realistic to expect many states to replace party-affiliated chief election officials with more independent institutions. The party that controls that office – or that is poised to do so – can be expected to oppose such reform. In some states, both major parties will oppose institutional reform, since it takes away an elected office for which their candidates may run.

Moreover, even if we could insulate election officials from partisan politics, the institutions responsible for making election laws are no model of impartiality. While there are a handful of federal laws that govern election, including HAVA, most of the rules regarding voter registration, voting technology, provisional ballots, absentee voting, voter identification, and recounts are the product of state law. When one party controls the state legislative process and enacts laws making it more difficult for some people to vote or have their votes counted, there is reason to worry. The most notable examples in recent years are the Indiana and Georgia laws requiring voters to present government-issued photo ID, despite the paucity of evidence showing voter impersonation to be a serious problem.

Partisanship is thus a spectre haunting the making of election laws, as well as their implementation. With the increased polarization of American politics, these concerns have never been more serious. This year, 23 states will have partisan elections for the state’s chief election official. Control over the state legislature and Governor’s office will also be a stake in a number of states. There has been a fair amount of attention to the impact that this year’s elections will have on the forthcoming round of redistricting. Less noticed is the fact that this election will dictate which party controls the machinery of elections in many swing states.

Of particular concern is that states will move to impose more aggressive proof-of-citizenship requirements that may impede participation by eligible voters. In 2005, Ohio enacted a law requiring naturalized citizens to produce a certificate of naturalization if challenged at the polls. (Disclosure: I was part of the legal team that successfully sued to stop this law.) And long before making news with its recent immigration law, Arizona enacted a stringent proof-of-citizenship law that is the subject of ongoing litigation. More recently, Georgia adopted a controversial voter verification program, to which the U.S. Department of Justice originally objected on the ground that it would have an adverse impact on minority voters – though it ultimately abandoned its objection, perhaps to avoid a constitutional challenge to Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act.

Exaggerating voter fraud, especially when it comes to immigrants, has become a cottage industry in some quarters, and a convenient excuse to make it more difficult for some citizens to register and vote. Overly restrictive rules for voter registration and verification can be expected to have a negative impact on some groups, including Latino and Asian American citizens who already have low turnout rates.

What is the solution? While there are no easy answers, the pervasive partisanship in the making and implementation of election laws necessitates close judicial oversight of elections. Though some have complained that about the increase in election-related litigation since 2000, the reality is that the federal courts are the government institution most insulated from partisan politics. Accordingly, they have a vital role to play in policing election administration. Because access to federal courts is essential, they should be generous in allowing a private right of action in cases alleging a violation of federal election laws, as I argue in a forthcoming article. Courts should also closely scrutinize laws and practices alleged to have a disparate impact on certain groups of voters, including racial and ethnic minorities.

In the long run, the United States needs to move toward electoral institutions that are insulated from partisan politics, as is the norm in most other democracies. In the short run, however, such reforms are not likely. It is therefore essential that courts play an active role in checking partisan election administration, especially when it comes to laws and practices likely to have a disparate impact on poor and minority voters.

Protecting the Voting Rights of Military and Overseas Voters

By Steven F. Huefner

Last Saturday marked the 45th day before the November 2 election, the new deadline under a federal law passed last year for sending ballots to military and overseas voters. This is a substantial improvement in the law protecting the voting opportunities of military and overseas voters, but precisely how well these voters will be served, both by the requirements of the new governing law itself, and as a matter of the implementation of that law, merits close attention over the next two months.

Last week marked not only the end of this year’s primary election season, but also the date when, under a new provision of federal law, states were required to send absentee ballots for the upcoming federal elections to U.S. military and overseas citizens. Specifically, last Saturday, September 18, was the 45th day prior to the November 2 general election. Under the Military and Overseas Voter Empowerment Act (“MOVE”), which Congress passed in 2009, the 45th day before a federal election is the deadline (except in a handful of states that recently received a waiver of this requirement) for sending absentee ballots to voters covered by the Uniformed and Overseas Citizens Absentee Voting Act (“UOCAVA”). This is a substantial improvement in the law protecting the voting opportunities of military and overseas voters, but precisely how well these voters are served, both by the requirements of the new governing law itself, and as a matter of the implementation of that law, merits close attention over the next two months.

U.S. military personnel and overseas civilians, who are collectively estimated to constitute approximately six million potential voters, have long struggled with greater voting challenges than most absentee voters face. These challenges reflect both the high degree of transiency of these citizens, as well as the difficulties of delivering mail to and from remote locations around the globe. Although military voters have tended to register to vote at rates higher than those of the general population, their voting participation rates have usually been dramatically lower. For some of these potential voters, blank ballots may never arrive, or may arrive too late to be timely cast, or may be timely cast but returned too late to be counted. Other voters may find the process of applying for an absentee ballot from abroad too complicated, or may have difficulty getting information about candidates and issues. In its 2009 study “No Time to Vote,” the Pew Center on the States found that more than one third of U.S. states do not provide enough time for military voters abroad to reliably cast their ballots, and that half of the states needed to improve their absentee balloting processes for these voters.

The MOVE Act seeks to address some of the difficulties facing military and overseas voters in part by mandating that states provide these voters a minimum 45-day time period for the round-trip that begins when a blank ballot is sent to a voter and ends when a voted ballot is returned to an election official. In addition, the act requires states to establish electronic means for voters to register to vote and to apply for an absentee ballot, as well as electronic means for election officials to send voters the blank absentee ballot itself. The act does not require states to permit voters to cast their absentee ballot electronically (although a handful of states have independently begun to permit some limited electronic voting, even if it is just accepting a faxed version of a paper ballot in some special circumstances). MOVE also prohibits the imposition of notarization requirements, which can be particularly onerous in some foreign jurisdictions, on ballots cast by military and overseas voters.

Last year’s MOVE Act is but the latest in a series of congressional efforts over many decades to reduce the challenges and to improve the absentee balloting process for military and U.S. citizens abroad. MOVE itself was an amendment to UOCAVA, a 1986 measure that established special voting rights and protections for military service members, their families, and U.S. civilians abroad. Yet notwithstanding the many previous federal efforts, difficulties for military and overseas voters have persisted, in large part because U.S. elections are conducted at the state and local level under procedures that vary widely from jurisdiction to jurisdiction. This panoply of divergent requirements and processes has complicated the efforts of military voting assistance officers, State Department officials, and non-governmental organizations to help individual voters.

Because of these difficulties, for the past two years the Uniform Law Commission (“ULC,” also known as the National Conference of Commissioners on Uniform State Laws) has been drafting a uniform state law for military and overseas voters. That effort concluded earlier this summer with the ULC’s approval of the Uniform Military and Overseas Voters Act (“UMOVA”). [Disclosure: I served as the Reporter for the ULC drafting committee that drafted UMOVA.] A copy of UMOVA is available here, and state legislatures are now beginning to consider adopting this act. While building upon existing federal law in the area, UMOVA also would extend protection to state and local elections not held in conjunction with the federal elections that MOVE and UOCAVA cover, and would provide additional uniformity in the voting process for military and overseas voters across the states.

Obviously, no state will adopt UMOVA in time for it to affect the November 2010 election. Instead, improvements this year in the participation of military and overseas voters are most likely to come from individual state responses to last year’s MOVE Act. But regardless of how well state efforts to become MOVE compliant succeed in improving the 2010 voting experience of UOCAVA voters, the 2010 election is likely to establish that UMOVA deserves to be widely enacted across the U.S. for future elections.

Among other things, while MOVE’s 45-day requirement surely will improve the voting participation rate of many UOCAVA voters, it does not apply to non-federal elections, as UMOVA would. In addition, although the 45-day time period will be a substantial improvement in some states, even 45 days may not always be enough for some potential voters. Indeed, the extent to which the 45-day period is sufficient will deserve careful monitoring during this election. UMOVA would extend this time period by allowing ballots cast before Election Day to reach local election officials after Election Day, as long as they are received in time to be included in the local canvass. This is an accommodation that several states have already made in litigation or in negotiation with the U.S. Department of Justice, and standardizing this practice across all states would enfranchise additional voters.

The MOVE Act’s centerpiece, its 45-day requirement, itself reflects another accommodation between the desire to fully enfranchise military service personnel, on the one hand, and some of the logistical challenges that election officials face in conducting an election, on the other, as well as the political realities of many states’ existing primary election calendars. Until the official canvass (and any potential recounts and contests) of the primary election is complete, local election jurisdictions cannot finalize their general election ballots. Thus, it would have been problematic for a state still tallying the official results of its primary election from last Tuesday to send out absentee ballots last Saturday. Accordingly, complying with the 45-day requirement demands that a state’s primary election occur at least two months before the general election, and ideally earlier than that. (Although the fact that ballots can be transmitted electronically means not only that they can be available to the voter almost immediately after the ballot content and style are finalized, without the delays typically associated with mail delivery, but also that the time between primary election and absentee ballot distribution may be somewhat reduced, without the need to wait for ballots to be printed.)

But how well is this accommodation working? As this first election under MOVE unfolds, a number of questions about the 45-day minimum deserve attention. The threshold question, immediately pertinent, is whether ballots are already available for these voters? Are states that did not request a waiver of the 45-day deadline in fact complying with the deadline? If not, why not? In the four states (Alaska, Colorado, Hawaii, and Wisconsin, along with the District of Columbia and the U.S. Virgin Islands) that sought a waiver this year but were denied it, what is happening to protect these voters? In the five states (Delaware, Massachusetts, New York, Rhode Island, and Washington) that received a waiver of this requirement for this election, will they be able to comply with the 45-day requirement in 2012?

Beyond these questions about the round-trip time requirement, many other questions also are worth considering in this first MOVE election: How well are the electronic methods of transmitting ballot applications and blank ballots working? Are voters better able to get the information and assistance they need? Can they complete the ballot and accompanying materials successfully? Are they in fact casting a ballot that ultimately is counted? If not, why not? Will enforcing their participation rights, particularly in a close election, eventually become a matter of litigation?

In short, the voting experiences of military and overseas voters deserve careful attention in the federal midterm elections now underway. Between now and mid-November there likely will be multiple opportunities to continue to reflect on how to further facilitate these voters’ participation. This reflection may confirm that the MOVE Act framework is sensible and therefore worth extending to state and local elections. It also may suggest how, for purposes of protecting this particularly deserving subset of the American electorate, federal law alone remains less effective than an effort to develop a more uniform voting process for these voters in every state, as UMOVA seeks to do. Given that elections themselves are state rather than federal undertakings, the value of additional state control over this process should not come as a surprise.

New York’s Voting Problems: Is It Possible to Be Both Nonpartisan and Competent?

A royal screw up is how Mayor Michael Bloomberg characterized the roll-out of New York’s new voting machines yesterday. The story this morning isn’t even bigger because the Republican gubernatorial primary was a 62%-38% blowout and Representative Rangel divided and conquered a field of five challengers. Maybe yesterday’s farce will serve as sufficient warning for New York to get its act together for November, in which case the episode won’t have been all bad. But the early reports on what happen suggest there may be deeper institutional problems that transcend unfamiliarity with new technology.

royal screw up is how Mayor Michael Bloomberg characterized the roll-out of New York’s new voting machines yesterday.

The story this morning isn’t even bigger because the Republican gubernatorial primary was a 62%-38% blowout and Representative Rangel divided and conquered a field of five challengers.

Maybe yesterday’s farce will serve as sufficient warning for New York to get its act together for November, in which case the episode won’t have been all bad.  But the early reports on what happen suggest there may be deeper institutional problems that transcend unfamiliarity with new technology.

Before getting to this institutional concern, I should mention one no-brainer that should help any jurisdiction coping with the challenges of keeping its voting machinery in good working order.  NPR‘s Pam Fessler this morning had a piece about Larry Norden’s new report for the Brennan Center, which recommends a federal database that collects complaints from localities all around the nation on the malfunctioning of voting equipment.  Currently, local officials are usually “in the dark” about the problems that other jurisdictions have encountered with the same technology—and equally ignorant of the workarounds that have been developed to address those problems.  A database of this kind would let localities in our highly decentralized electoral system learn from each other’s experience.  It is the kind of commonsense, but not yet developed, innovation that the field of election administration so desperately needs.  (Heather Gerken’s idea of a “Democracy Index,” which would provide comparative data on how different jurisdictions perform on a variety of electoral metrics, is another example of this kind.)

But the deeper concern buried in the story about New York’s problems yesterday concerns the composition of the city’s board of elections and what effect its institutional structure might have had on the board’s ability to prepare for the new technology.  The New York Times reports that the board is designed to be evenly split between “five Democrats and five Republicans.”  At first glance, that sounds like a good thing.  You don’t want either major party controlling the electoral process.  We’ve seen the problems that partisan election administration can cause in places like Florida and Ohio.  It’s a basic point worth repeating frequently: the umpire should not be a member of either team that competes for electoral victory.

But a board with an even number of members (in this case, 10), divided equally between Democrats and Republicans, is a recipe for stalemate that causes the essential governance of the electoral process to collapse.  We’ve seen that with the 3-3 gridlock at the Federal Election Commission and similar 2-2 splits at the newer U.S. Election Assistance Commission.  Those that study redistricting reform know that similar stalemates have occurred on reapportionment bodies (like the one in Illinois) that require equal numbers of Democrats and Republicans.

Apparently, the same thing happened this year with New York City’s board of elections.  The New York Times again: “The political infighting has been so intense that the board could not agree on an executive director for much of this year.”  Not until “last month” was the logjam broken when one Republican member finally broke ranks with the four other Republicans on the board in order to move the process forward.  One can easily imagine that the lack of an executive director until just a month before the board must finalize the biggest transition in voting technology in over a half-century is a recipe for administrative disaster.

Not surprisingly, after what happened yesterday, some New Yorkers are wondering whether it would be better to put the board of elections under the control of a single official, directly accountable to the people.  (The mayor hinted that perhaps he should be that official.)  Likewise, when criticisms of partisan Secretaries of States arise, the Secretaries themselves push back by saying that each of them is directly responsible to the electorate, and as a single “electoral CEO” for each state they have the institutional energy and capacity to get things done.

The point is a legitimate one.  The administration of the electoral process must be competent.  There is no point creating a bipartisan, or nonpartisan, electoral commission if the institution is destined for stalemate and thus incompetence in the most basic sense: the incapacity to do the job it is designed to accomplish.

But is it really impossible to have both competence and evenhandedness (in other words, impartiality) in election administration?  Would it not be possible to design institutional mechanisms that require the five Republicans and five Democrats to select an Executive Director, or tiebreaking member of their board, long before the date of the primary?  A flip of a coin, if nothing else, if the deadlock passes a certain deadline on the calendar?

I don’t suggest that it is easy to design an electoral institution with the optimal combination of appointment procedures and incentives to yield both evenhandedness and decisiveness.  On the contrary, I think that New York’s experience yesterday reminds us that more scholarship should be devoted to precisely this topic of optimal institutional design.  I don’t believe that we have exhausted our collective intellectual capacity to develop creatively innovative solutions to this problem of electoral governance.  In short, I think we can do better than a coin toss as a tiebreaking mechanism.

One thing I do know: if we cannot come up with better institutional designs, then we will be consigned to the blight of partisan bias in the administration of the voting process.  The umpire will be a member of one of the competing teams.  Why?  The reason is that we will not tolerate the situation where the game cannot be played at all because the two sides cannot agree on an impartial umpire.

That seems to be what happened in New York.  But, as Mayor Bloomberg said, it is “completely unacceptable.”  Given the choice between no umpire and a biased one, the public will pick the latter option just to be able to play the game and have a winner.  Let’s hope, therefore, that we are not limited to this unattractive choice.

Top-10 List and Top-Two Candidates: Some Thoughts on This Election Season

As our nation heads into the final stretches of this campaign season – today ends the primaries for this year – Election Law @ Moritz has refurbished its web site. The goal is to provide the same type of substantive content that we have in the past, but to do so in a more user-friendly format. We hope that you will poke around and let us know what you think.

We have also used the occasion to reflect on what we as a team think likely will be the biggest legal issues of this election cycle.  Here’s our “top ten” list.  Look forward also to Weekly Comments (of which this is the season’s opener), as well as a new Weekly Summary (found as one of the links at the top of the home page), between now and Election Day.

It is not surprising that campaign finance and redistricting are the first two items on this “top ten” list.  It is widely believed that campaign finance will be the big story of this year’s election in the wake of the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision in Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission.  And hardly a day goes by without a new story, or blog post, on the effect that this year’s elections will have on the legislative districts drawn after the completion of the new census.  (New maps, of course, will be needed in each state for both the state’s own legislature as well as its delegation to the U.S. House of Representatives.)

But as I think more about what this year’s elections will tell us about the health of the procedures we use to elect government officials, I begin to wonder whether our biggest concern should focus on a different element of the electoral process: the means by which we winnow the candidates down from a field to a single winner.

To be sure, I still believe we need to pay close attention to how we cast and count our ballots.  Indeed, many items of our “top ten” list reflect this continuing concern.  This year is likely to see even greater use of early and absentee voting, and this trend may cause problems similar to those that Minnesota confronted in 2008.  And although it is true that many issues arising with the implementation of the Help America Vote Act (HAVA) have been sorted out by now, there are still potential pitfalls lurking within the registration database and provisional voting requirements of this adolescent (and thus not yet fully mature) statute.

Even so, one can be hopeful that this November’s general election will avoid any major dispute over the casting and counting of ballots.  The recounts that have occurred during the primaries, like those in Alaska and Vermont, have gone smoothly—at least from the perspective of not triggering litigation.  (While Vermont’s recount among Democratic gubernatorial candidates was a friendly affair, Alaska’s recount among Republican candidates for U.S. Senate was politically testy.)  Recounts in general elections tend to be uglier than recounts in primaries, for the obvious reason that candidates from different parties are usually more antagonistic than candidates in intramural competition, and thus we cannot assume that there will be no major recount battle in this year’s general election.  But it takes the unusual—and unfortunate—combination of both an exceedingly narrow apparent margin of victory (less than 1000 votes) and a problem in the administration of the voting process susceptible of litigation (which in turn requires some uncertainty in the relevant legal rules) in order for a recount to become a full-scale confrontation of the kind that occurred in Minnesota.  If the nation is lucky, it will escape that kind of “perfect storm” in this electoral season.

The health of an electoral system, however, is not measured solely by its ability to accurately tally the votes cast for each candidate.  Instead, it is also necessary that the winning candidates represent the electoral preferences of the voters who cast ballots.  This essential condition cannot be assumed to occur if, for example, the winning candidate in a three-way race received less than forty percent of the votes.  If the runner-up would have prevailed in a head-to-head runoff with this plurality winner, then democracy is arguably disserved by the failure of the electoral system to take account of this preference within the electorate.  Imagine a race in which the candidates split the vote 35-33-32, with a politically moderate candidate in the middle of this split.  It should not matter whether the plurality winner is a left-wing or right-wing “extremist” to make the same point: if moderates together with the plurality winner’s ideological opponents would have combined to defeat this “extremist” candidate, then the electoral system should give voters the opportunity to have this preference prevail.

I readily acknowledge that there is no perfect system for translating voter preferences into electoral outcomes.  Kenneth Arrow proved as much in the theorem that bears his name.  Philosophers of democracy can endlessly debate the merits of proportional representation against the winner-take-all system that we have in the U.S. for legislative elections.  There is growing interest in Instant Runoff Voting (IRV), as evidenced most recently by Rick Pildes’s advocacy on behalf of it.  But there are different versions of IRV, as well as some competitors to (and criticisms of) it.

This piece is not the place to argue for any particular electoral system.  Instead, I will simply observe that this year may end up exposing flaws with our conventional method of moving from primary to general elections, without the opportunity for runoffs in most places.  The rise of the Tea Party movement and the ferment within Republican Party primaries show that it is not easy to design a sensible system for moving from many candidates to a single winner.  Should separate Tea Party candidates appear on the general election ballot, potentially draining significant support for Republicans, who thereby might lose even though they would win a head-to-head matchup against their Democratic counterparts?  Witness the allegations we are seeing concerning “fraudulent” Tea Party (and Green Party) candidates, who purportedly are placed on the ballot solely for this siphoning purpose.

This ferment has also caused the phenomenon of “establishment Republicans” pursuing independent candidacies in general elections.  Charlie Crist, Florida’s governor elected as a Republican, is running for U.S. Senate as an independent because it became clear that he would lose the Republican primary to the conservative insurgent Mark Rubio.  In Alaska’s U.S. Senate election, incumbent Lisa Murkowski did lose in the Republican primary to another conservative insurgent, Joe Miller, and apparently she is contemplating the possibility of a write-in candidacy as an independent.

It is easy to imagine that Florida’s U.S. Senate race might end up like the hypothetical three-way split described above.  Rubio might get less than 40%, perhaps as low as 35%, of the vote and still be the plurality winner.  Crist might trail Rubio by just a percentage point—35% to 34%, for example—with the Democratic candidate (Kendrick Meek) in third place.  If Crist would beat Rubio in a head-to-head runoff, because Democratic voters would hand Crist their support in a two-man contest, should not Floridians be given the opportunity to express this collective preference?

Likewise, it is possible that Murkowski would beat Miller in a two-person race in which all Alaskans voted, rather than just those Alaskans participating in the Republican primary.  Thus, it is intriguing to consider what the U.S. Senate election in Alaska would have looked like if Alaska had adopted the same kind of “top two primary” system that they have in Washington and now California.  A “top two primary” essentially converts the general election into a head-to-head runoff between the top two vote-getters in the primary, regardless of party.  In the primary elections that Alaska held this year, Miller and Murkowski each received over 50,000 votes, whereas the winner of the Democratic primary received only 18,000 votes.  Indeed, the total of votes cast for all four candidates in the Democratic primary was only 36,000.  Had these numbers been the same in a “top two primary” system, or even if the three other candidates in the Democratic primary had bowed out in order not to drain votes from the leading Democrat, the result would have been that both Miller and Murkowski would have gone on to the general election.  Arguably, that situation would have permitted Alaska’s electorate collectively to express its preference among Miller, Murkowski, and the leading Democrat much better than the current situation in which Murkowski must fight for status as a write-in candidate.

California’s new “top two” system does not take effect until the 2012 elections.  It will be interesting to observe whether that new system, in contrast to the state’s former conventional system, causes winning candidates to better reflect California’s electorate as a whole. Nor will California’s experience, even if positive, prove that its “top two” system is better than some version of Instant Runoff Voting—or even, what is possible, a combination of an IRV primary (to identify the “top two” vote-getters) and then a head-to-head general election.  But because IRV has not yet been adopted on a statewide basis in any state, whereas “top two” now has, those who are interested in improving the health of democracy in the U.S. should consider focusing on “top two” as a politically feasible measure of reform.

Even if the “top two primary” is worthy of attention in the future, is the issue of how to winnow candidates from many to one really more important this year than either campaign finance or redistricting?  I certainly do not want to discount the importance of these two topics.  Yet there are significant distinctions between the how-to-winnow issue, on the one hand, and either campaign finance or redistricting, on the other.  The how-to-winnow issue concerns the voting process itself: is democracy functioning to produce electoral results that properly aggregate voter preferences among the pool of competing candidates?
The campaign finance issue is different, at least as it is being debated this year.  The fear of increased corporate and union money after Citizens United is not that it will prevent voters from casting ballots in favor of the candidates whom they most prefer; rather it is a fear that these candidates, once in office, will become beholden to their financial supporters.  The concern, then, is that governance, rather than electoral preference-identification, will be distorted.

The concern about redistricting is related to electoral-preference identification.  The fear is that gerrymandered districts will cause the election of candidates who do not best reflect the preferences of the electorate, considered collectively.  But this fear concerns the candidates who will be elected pursuant to the new legislative districts drawn next year after the completion of this year’s census.  Even though redistricting is on the brain of all political professionals, there is no current claim that the redistricting issue is causing a distortion of electoral preference-identification this year—beyond whatever distortion occurred as a result of gerrymandering after the 2000 census.  In other words, the fact that this year’s election results will determine who gets to draw the new maps next year is not, by itself, a fact that is distorting the operation of the electoral process this year.   The voters will vote their preferences this year, and the electoral system to the extent that it is able will aggregate those preferences into electoral results, and this process will occur without being affected by the fact that this year’s winners will engage in redistricting next year.

By contrast, the absence of a “top two” system—or IRV, or some other better method of aggregating voter preferences—in this year’s election necessarily will have an effect of the ability of democracy to do its basic job this year.  Because of the conventional system in place, we may get plurality winners who would not win a head-to-head runoff with the runners-up they beat.  This risk is not limited to Florida and Alaska.  Indeed, some of the dynamics I have been discussing may play out in today’s primaries, particularly Delaware’s or New Hampshire’s.  Moreover, the frequency with which this problem occurs may increase as a result of the political turmoil the nation is experiencing.  Even if there is no perfect solution to this problem, it is one about which we should be concerned—and increasingly so.

Thus, let’s keep a sharp eye on the winnowing issue this year, and see if it bears out that we need to put in place new ways – whether “top two,” IRV, a combination, or something else – to pick a winner from a fractured field of candidates.