Super-Duper Tuesday: What Does It Mean for Election Administration?

By Nathan Cemenska
Web Editor, Election Law @ Moritz
Moritz College of Law

Much has been said about the effect Super-Duper Tuesday might have on candidates and campaigns, but what about the effect it will have on election administration? I did some research on the subject but could come to only one firm conclusion: I cannot develop a firm conclusion.

My uncertainty arises from two sources. First, I do not have enough information regarding how the earlier primaries are affecting local election administrators. But second, even if I did have this information, I would remain uncertain about its meaning in the context of Super-Duper Tuesday. I would remain uncertain because the meaning of that day is currently being manufactured by our democracy and will not become apparent until after the fact.

I will address the lack of information, but first, let me provide an example of how the earlier primary could affect elections operations. In the course of another project, the Election Law @ Moritz team learned how the change is causing problems for election administrators in Illinois. Historically, Illinois has had a lot of ballot-access litigation that delays ballot printing and machine configuration until the last minute, forcing administrators to rush their work and increasing the risk of error. In the 2008 Presidential election, this problem will be doubly compounded, first by Illinois’ recent institution of early voting, and now by its earlier primary. Administrators from Illinois were concerned enough to write an editorial that warned that “there… [will] be little more than a month to handle any objections and court cases—all during weeks that include Thanksgiving, Hanukkah, Christmas and New Year’s Day. This is unfair to the many participants and increases the probability of balloting crises….” Earlier filing needed if primary is changed, Chicago Tribune, May 27, 2007. Lobbying efforts succeeded in getting the legislature to make some helpful changes, but those did not include moving back the schedule of the Presidential ballot access process and timing will still be a challenge compared to previous years.

The lack of information about how the earlier primaries are affecting administration in other states means it is impossible to determine the appropriate degree of concern. Still, it is hard to imagine that similar crunches will not occur in other states, and that could—could—lead to serious problems. The notorious Florida butterfly ballot of 2000 and the lesser known DRE ballot in the 2006 race in Florida’s 13th Congressional district have shown that carelessly designed ballots can taint elections, and we should take care to avoid creating conditions under which such carelessness is more likely to occur. Moreover, because the primary dates of some states are still potentially in flux, the risk of error may be further increased. Logistical problems, like the failure of Maryland election administrators in the 2006 primary to provide each polling place with the materials necessary to run an election, are more likely to occur when last-minute changes deprive election administrators of the opportunity to plan effectively. And there are probably other types of problems our early primaries could cause that I have not anticipated.

The second source of uncertainty is, even if we assume that the earlier dates do cause a serious problem in one or more states, we cannot be sure how that would affect the candidates. This is because, unlike in general elections, victories and losses in Presidential primaries are largely symbolic. The Iowa caucus that everybody fixes upon, for instance, does not select what Presidential delegates will go to the national nominating convention, but is merely the start of a delegate selection process that begins in precincts, moves to county caucuses, and ends finally in the statewide caucus that actually selects the Presidential delegates. There is no guarantee that what happens at the initial caucus will reflect the final result, but this does not stop us from investing a great deal of meaning in the outcome of the initial caucus. However, in a post-Super-Duper Tuesday world, it has become less clear what meaning to ascribe to such an outcome.

It is not inconceivable that this symbolic quality of primaries may lead to recounts and election contests because, in a sense, the candidates are not trying to win the early primaries per se, but instead are just trying to look strong. While they can certainly accomplish this by winning, when that is not possible they can accomplish it by muddying the result with a lawsuit, declaring victory, and hoping to stay alive until the next wave of primaries. By the time the lawsuit is resolved, the next wave will probably be completed, the candidates who are going to drop out will have dropped out, and it will not matter so much who won the original disputed election.

The peculiar rules that apply to presidential primary contests may also encourage litigation. The primaries of many states, including New Hampshire, do not operate on a winner-take-all basis, but instead allocate delegates in proportion to the popular vote (see Democratic Plan Rule 4(a)2004 Republican rules). Thus, a candidate would only have to show a little inaccuracy in the original vote tally to pick up a delegate or two, increasing the incentive to litigate. However, because under this system the pot of delegates at the end of the election contest rainbow is so much smaller than under a winner-take-all system, candidates may decide it is not worth fighting over, perhaps making litigation less likely.

Another peculiar rule in New Hampshire is that, with certain exceptions, candidates must obtain a certain minimum percentage of the vote to get any delegates at all, and if they fail to meet this threshold then the residue is distributed among the remaining candidates (see Democratic Plan Rule 4(b)2004 Republican rules). This, too, could lead to litigation if the dominant candidates want to knock another candidate below the threshold to steal delegates.

Finally, while some states allocate their delegates based on statewide totals, some, such as Florida, set aside part of them to allocate based on the vote within each of the state’s Congressional districts (see Democratic Plan, p. 262004 Republican rules). This means that, if one of these districts experiences a voting snafu, there could be litigation even if it was not severe enough to change the result of the statewide count.

Do I think that any of this is going to occur? I would hope that the parties would have enough control over their candidates to persuade them to forego election contests except where it is pretty clear that serious errors occurred and probably changed the outcome. And my gut instinct tells me that there will probably not be so clear a case, because things are hardly ever so clear. Nevertheless, the lack of information on these issues is a threat in itself, and combined with the sheer newness of Super-Duper Tuesday it becomes a problem that deserves some more attention. If there is one thing we have learned at Election Law @ Moritz, it is that election systems function like ecosystems—everything is connected, and changing one little thing might create unforeseeable consequences in another area. With the advent of Super-Duper Tuesday, we have changed one big thing, and it is hard to see how that will not have important, if not negative, consequences for election administration, not just candidates and campaigns.

Precedent and Judicial Responsibility

Chief Justice Roberts has been attacked from both the left and the right for failing to admit openly that his opinion in last week’s campaign finance case amounts to overruling the Court’s 2003 decision that involved the same McCain-Feingold provision. This comment, however, defends the new Chief Justice’s approach, given (1) a gap left open by the reasoning of the 2003 decision, and (2) the Chief’s basic orientation towards funding restrictions for campaign messages, which he was entitled to invoke to fill that gap.

The next comment in this space is scheduled for September 4.

If it is possible for conventional wisdom to develop within a single week, then the conventional wisdom about FEC v. WRTL (the Supreme Court’s “blockbuster campaign finance decision)” is that the new Chief Justice’s bluff got called by his colleagues. Chief Justice Roberts said he was not overruling one of the two major rulings in McConnell v. FEC, the 2003 landmark decision upholding the constitutionality of the McCain-Feingold reform law. But seven other Justices said he was, without fessing up to doing so, and the eighth—mild-mannered Justice Alito, who was the only one to join the Chief’s approach to the case—came fairly close to acknowledging as much.

What has attracted the most attention is Justice Scalia’s attack on the Chief’s avowal against overruling. “[I]ndefensible,” is how Justice Scalia, joined by Justice Kennedy and Thomas, described it. The well-settled relevant test for facial invalidation of a statute asks whether its overall scope is substantially overbroad in relation to its range of permissible applications. Because McConnell had rejected a claim of facial invalidity with respect to the particular provision of the McCain-Feingold law at issue (its prohibition on the use of corporate or union funds to pay for “electioneering communications”), it must mean that this provision was not substantially overbroad in its scope. Yet, as Justice Scalia observed, the position propounded by Chief Justice Roberts in the new case inevitably would render the applicable McCain-Feingold provision substantially overbroad. Therefore, the Chief’s approach “effectively overrules McConnell without saying so,” observed Justices Scalia, noting that six other Justices also saw the same incompatibility between McConnell and the Chief’s opinion.

Furthermore, Justice Scalia lashed out at what Chief Justice Roberts might have thought was the justification for holding back on overruling, even though he must have recognized the same incompatibility that all his other colleagues (including Justice Alito) did. Courts shouldn’t overrule precedents unless and until their validity is necessarily and squarely called into question, and a precedent about a statute’s facial invalidity is not directly at issue in a new case, like WRTL, that merely involves the constitutionality of the statute as applied to one particular set of facts. Justice Scalia, however, would not accept the invocation of that principle here. “This faux judicial restraint is judicial obfuscation,” he jabbed, and even folks who normally disagree with Justice Scalia have embraced his view on this point. Most prominently, Walter Dellinger has offered: “[I]t’s neither minimalist nor restrained to overrule cases while pretending that you are not.”

Yet in this debate I wish to take the Chief Justice’s side. In the area of campaign finance specifically, and most likely in constitutional law generally, it is better for the Court to leave precedents standing, unless it is absolutely impossible to do so.

McConnell’s Vulnerability

In siding with Chief Justice Roberts, I hasten to acknowledge that I agree with Justice Scalia’s incompatibility point. Moreover, I would not have joined the Chief Justice’s opinion. My own views on campaign finance law are closer to Justice Souter’s dissent than they are to the Chief’s opinion.

Still, the relevant question concerning the debate between the Chief and Justice Scalia, it seems to me, is whether for someone with the Chief Justice’s views the refusal to explicitly overrule McConnell was a responsible treatment of precedent. Although I think he could have—and should have—allowed himself to be guided by some straightforward inferences from McConnell, his unwillingness to do so is not necessarily a dishonest treatment of that precedent. Weaknesses in the reasoning of McConnell itself left it exposed to the way Chief Justice Roberts handled it. Indeed, it is quite possible that Justice O’Connor—had she still been on the Court in WRTL—might have joined Chief Justice Roberts’s opinion even though she had been a co-author of the McConnell majority.

McConnell, as mentioned, involved a challenge to the McCain-Feingold law as written. In rejecting that challenge, the McConnell Court could have ruled the statute valid in all its applications. The McConnell Court would have been justified in doing so: the combined need for both clarity in the statute’s scope and the avoidance of corporate or union spending on electioneering messages warranted enforcement to all messages that came within the statute’s bright-line coverage. As I had explained in a law journal article, “Narrow Tailoring” is Not the Opposite of “Overbreadth”: Defending BRCA’s Definition of “Electioneering Communication,” 2 Election L. J. 457 (2003), the Court’s pre-McConnell precedents supported this kind of across-the-board validation of the statute.

But the McConnell Court did not take this approach. Instead, McConnell left open the possibility that the statute could be ruled invalid as applied to particular cases. Moreover, in an earlier opinion in the same WRTL case, the Court unanimously confirmed that the statute was susceptible to as-applied challenges. As a result, when the case returned to the Court in the proceeding that yielded the current decision, it was the task for the Justices to decide in what circumstances the application of the statute would be invalid.

In confronting this task, the Court had essentially two alternatives: either the application of the law would be invalid only where no reasonable person would consider the particular message to advocate for or against a candidate’s election; or, flipping the burden, the law would be invalid unless no reasonable person would deny that the message advocates for or against a candidate’s election. For reasons I have explained previously, the former alternative is more in keeping with the spirit of McConnell. Nonetheless, McConnell did not specifically purport to foreclose the latter alternative, thus leaving it vulnerable to the narrow reading that the Chief Justice gave it.

What McConnell actually decided was that the constitutionally protected Freedom of Speech did not confine Congress’s prohibition on corporate or union funding of electioneering to an exceedingly narrow category of messages that contained certain “magic words” of electoral advocacy. (“Nor are we persuaded [based on precedent or principle] that the First Amendment erects a rigid barrier between . . . the presence or absence of magic words” is how the McConnell Court stated its ruling.) The McConnell Court, however, did not say how much farther beyond “magic words” Congress could go in imposing its prohibition on corporate or union spending on messages that might qualify as electioneering. Instead, the McConnell Court took the tack of saying only that the McCain-Feingold law as written was not entirely unenforceable, based on a prediction that—wherever that constitutional line would ultimately be drawn—most of messages subject to the McCain-Feingold law would fall on the unprotected side of the line (unprotected meaning, again, that Congress could impose its funding restriction on these messages).

That predictive approach proved to be the Achilles heel of McConnell, since it did not fix the constitutional dividing line. What is more, McConnell’s rejection of the “magic words” limitation was not the only relevant precedent on this point. In First National Bank of Boston v. Bellotti, 435 U.S. 765 (1978), the Court had ruled that corporations could not be prohibited from funding messages that advocate for or against the adoption of a referendum or other ballot issue. Reconciling McConnell with Bellotti required the Court to explain where the scope of Bellotti’s protection ended and the scope of messages permissibly subject to a source-of-funding restriction began. (Were any messages referring to a candidate, rather than just a political issue, outside the scope of Bellotti’s protection? Presumably not, or otherwise the McCain-Feingold law would automatically be valid in all its applications, and thus the McConnell Court could have—and should have—easily said so.) Thus, there was a gap left open between precedents of McConnell and Bellotti that the Court need to fill in WRTL, and Chief Justice Roberts decided to fill it one way rather than the other.

The Gap Between McConnell and Bellotti

As I have indicated, I think it would have been better if the Chief had filled the gap in the other way, which would have been truer to the resonances of McConnell. But I cannot say that the Chief was “out of bounds” to fill it as he did. Bellotti has resonances of its own, as do other background precedents supportive of the Chief’s position (Buckley v. Valeo being perhaps the most obvious one). Moreover, there are general principles of Free Speech law that the Chief could draw upon, as he did, to help decide which way to fill the gap.

Ultimately, in confronting the empty space in controlling case law between McConnell and Bellotti, a Justice would need to develop a view on a basic underlying question in this area of campaign finance law: is a restriction on the use of corporate or union money to pay for a political message tantamount to barring a particular institutional speaker—the corporation or union—from uttering that message? Although I would say “no” in response to this question and could cite some precedents other than McConnell itself to support this view (most notably, Michigan Chamber of Commerce v. Austin, 494 U.S. 652 (1990), on which McConnell heavily relied), it is notorious that these precedents are poorly reasoned, sitting uneasily with earlier precedents (like Bellotti and Buckley) and not explaining adequately why (or the extent to which) corporations and unions may be treated differently than other institutional speakers. In this environment of confusing and potentially conflicting relevant case law, it is certainly understandable that the new Chief Justice would adopt an orientation that corporations and unions should presumptively have the same Free Speech rights as other institutional speakers.

And once he adopts this perspective, it makes sense that he would invoke basic pro-speaker doctrines of First Amendment law in deciding which way to close the gap between McConnell and Bellotti. Recall that one alternative Chief Justice Roberts had was to say that a corporation or union may not use their money to fund a political message unless no reasonable person would think that the message advocates for or against a candidate’s election. The other (and opposite) alternative was that corporations or unions may use their money to fund political messages unless no reasonable person would dispute that the message advocates for or against a candidate’s election. If under the First Amendment corporations and unions are to be treated presumptively as other institutional speakers, it is not surprising that Chief Justice Roberts would embrace the latter alternative, saying “we give the benefit of the doubt to speech, not censorship.”

Gap-Filling Without Overruling

Having filled the gap between McConnell and Bellotti in this way, Chief Justice Roberts was not irresponsible in refusing to overrule McConnell. Overruling a precedent is not compatible with the gap-filling exercise that the Chief Justice undertook. And gap-filling is all he purported to engage in—and appropriately so. Even if he could have (and I would have) filled the gap in a way “closer” to McConnell and “further” from Bellotti, he was entitled to sail closer to Bellotti’s shores. That he did so simply means that the predictive judgment on which McConnell’s facial validation of the statute rests remains open for potential reconsideration, if the accumulation of evidence as the statute gets enforced undercuts McConnell’s pre-enforcement prediction (a point that both he and Justice Alito make in somewhat different ways).

To be sure, there remains the incompatibility between the way Chief Justice Roberts filled the gap and the “substantial overbreadth” test for judging the facial validity of the McCain-Feingold law, which the McConnell Court had applied. Shouldn’t the Chief have acknowledged this incompatibility and therefore confessed to overruling McConnell, at least as a practical matter? I don’t think so, although his footnote that attempts to explain why his opinion is consistent with the facial invalidation in McConnell is the weakest part of the Chief’s opinion. Still, he was essentially on solid ground in saying that the predictive judgment on which that facial invalidation rested is a separate matter from the line-drawing exercise for as-applied challenges that he was required to undertake. Although it certainly now looks like that predictive judgment will prove inaccurate in light of the constitutional line the Chief drew, all of us will have to wait and see just how often applications of the statute fall on the wrong side of the line. In the meantime, the statute remains standing so as to test that predictive judgment.

Justice Scalia objects to this “wait-and-see approach,” observing that the very point of the “substantial overbreadth” test is to permit would-be speakers to knock out a statute in its entirety, without having to worry about the constitutionality of its applicability to their particular messages, when it is readily apparent that the statute as written has a substantial number of invalid applications in relation to its overall scope. Justice Scalia would surely be right were the facial validity of the McCain-Feingold law a fresh matter, not previously resolved by a judicial decision. In other words, had the constitutional line between permissible and impermissible applications already been set in the way that Chief Justice Roberts drew it, then it would have been necessary to knock out the McCain-Feingold law as written when McConnell was initially decided. But the reverse is not true. Once McConnell was decided as it was, it and the statute whose facial validity it upholds are entitled to stay on the books until the necessity arises for reconsidering the previously settled question of its facial validity. Since the task of drawing the constitutional line for purposes of as-applied challenges most certainly does not necessitate revisiting the issue of facial validity, but in fact was occasioned by what the previous ruling on that issue left opened, it is not judicially irresponsible to leave aside the facial validity precedent in the course of addressing the unresolved line-drawing question about as-applied challenges.

As for the inevitable tension that now exists between McConnell and WRTL, it is worth observing that there would have been just as much uncertainty in the applicable law—if not more—had Chief Justice Roberts taken the extra step and formally overruled McConnell. Either way, the same constitutional dividing line would exist (again, the one which separates messages susceptible to a prohibition on corporate or union spending from messages that are constitutionally immune from this kind of prohibition). If there proves to be difficulty applying this constitutional standard to particular messages—to the point where corporations and unions cannot be reasonably confident whether their messages would be protected or unprotected from this kind of regulation—then the Court, having overruled the facial validity holding of McConnell in WRTL, would be forced to confront whether to overrule much more than that: both the portion of McConnell ruling that “magic words” was not a constitutional standard and the earlier precedent (Austin) that a prohibition on corporate spending is constitutional permissible when “magic words” are present. Thus, there would remain plenty of tension in the relevant case law even if WRTL had overruled the facial validity holding of McConnell. Leaving the facial validity holding intact permits the Court to resolve in more modest ways the tension exposed in future cases: if it turns out that the Chief’s constitutional dividing line is unworkable, the Court in principle could resolve the tension by rethinking whether to sustain the McCain-Feingold statute in all its applications, rather than ruling a prohibition on corporate and union funding unconstitutional in all circumstances. The latter approach would be more disruptive to the bulk of existing relevant precedents, but it would be harder to avoid if WRTL had already undone the facial validity holding of McConnell. (Now, however, in any such future case, additional arguments can be brought to bear on the need for the McCain-Feingold statute and its relationship to the appropriate scope of Bellotti.)

Moreover, were the McCain-Feingold statute facially invalid, there would be increased ambiguity about the relevant statutory standard as well as whatever ambiguity exists in the application of Chief Justice Roberts’s constitutional test. The McCain-Feingold law contains a backup provision in case its primary one is ever facially invalidated. But the backup provision does not exhibit the same bright-line clarity of the primary one. By leaving the primary provision standing, Chief Justice Roberts actually achieves more operational clarity in the law going forward than if he overruled McConnell on this point. Thus, insofar as Walter Dellinger asserts that “the whole point of adherence to stare decisis is to create stability and predictability in the law,” Chief Justice Roberts’s position in WRTL is consistent with that objective, more so than if he had jettisoned the facial validity ruling of McConnell.

Stare Decisis, Gap-Filling, and the Rule of Law

There is a larger point as well. If all Justices feel as free to overrule precedents they dislike as Justice Scalia does, then ultimately constitutional law self-destructs into a lawless enterprise. When they regain power, liberals on the Court will overrule distasteful conservative precedents with the same speed and vigor as Justice Scalia would jettison the liberal decisions that he abhors. Unless stare decisis imposes a real constraint on Justices, forcing them to abide by precedents they find repugnant, then the constitutional pronouncements of the Court will simply oscillate over the decades between liberal and conservative dictates, depending solely on which side holds the balance of power on the Court, without any sense that there exists a body of constitutional law that all the Justices are mutually bound to uphold.

I imagine that this kind of perpetual oscillation would be destructive in other areas of constitutional law: when liberals are power, the Constitution protects abortion rights, permits affirmative action, strictly separates church and state (and so forth), whereas when the conservatives gain the upper hand, the reverse is true on all these issues—and back and forth, as the balance of power on the Court teeter-totters from one appointment to the next. In any event, the perniciousness of this kind of lawlessness certainly would hold true in the area of campaign finance. As I have indicated, there are two basic approaches one can take to the constitutionality of restrictions on the use of corporate or union money for campaign messages: one, the conventionally liberal approach, treats corporate and union money as different from other source of funds for political messages; the other, the conventionally conservative approach, treats them the same. Both approaches have plausible pedigrees in our nation’s constitutional traditions, and neither side is likely to convince the other of the correctness of its basic perspective. Unless stare decisis has true constraining power, we can envision the constitutional law of campaign finance swinging back and forth between these two basic conceptions, as liberals and conservatives fight for control. It is not a pretty vision. Election law, in particular, depends on the premise that there are settled rules that govern the operation of the electoral process. Even if one political party or faction does not like those rules, at least they know what the rules are and can rely on the courts to enforce them, unless the rules are changed through established procedures. If the rules of campaign finance are entirely dependent on the personal perspectives of the five Justices who happen to control the Supreme Court at any particular moment, the sense of the electoral process being governed by a set of clear rules is severely jeopardized.

Thus, Chief Justice Roberts was right to let precedent stand and to confine himself to the gap-filling task created by that precedent. Mere gap-filling will undoubtedly perpetuate tensions that already exist in the body of applicable precedent. But those tensions exist in large part because of the two basic competing visions concerning campaign finance, as some precedents reflect the temporary dominance of one vision, while other precedents reflect the transient preeminence of the other. Those two competing visions will not disappear. Thus, it is better to confine the ongoing competition between these two visions to whatever gaps that have been left open by the Court’s previous decisions, rather than extend the competition over the entire field of campaign finance, including those questions previously decided by the Court. This gap-filling process may be messy, but at least it is a recognizable form of law. Wholesale repudiation of campaign-finance precedent each time one vision or the other becomes predominant is not.

The New Chief Justice and His Commitment to the Rule of Law

In his confirmation hearing, then-Judge Roberts stated: “Judges and Justices are servants of the law, not the other way around.” This point is absolutely true, and it requires a strong commitment to stare decisis to remain so. For precisely this reason, then-Judge Roberts added: “Judges have to have the humility to recognize that they operate within a system of precedent shaped by other judges equally striving to live up to the judicial role.” Chief Justice Roberts’s opinion in WRTL may not be in all respects a perfect example of this humility. Yet his decision to stick to the gap-filling exercise that case presented and to leave the McConnell precedent standing, on the whole, is consistent with his professed recognition of the judicial obligation to serve the law—even as that law comes from the Court’s own prior decisions.

A Model Court for Contested Elections (Or, the “Field of Dreams” Approach to Election Law Reform)

This piece was prepared for a meeting of the Tobin Project’s Institutions of Democracy Working Group on June 23, 2007

If legislatures won’t create fair bipartisan courts to adjudicate election contests, then the private sector should create a “shadow” Elections Court to show how this tribunal would work. Its “amicus opinions” might influence actual judicial decisions or else highlight the need for legislative reform.

Contested elections need specialized courts, ones structured to be strictly bipartisan. That is the lesson of research into the voting administration laws of five Great Lakes states (Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, and Wisconsin), sponsored by the Joyce Foundation, as explained in a recent paper.

This lesson is especially applicable to gubernatorial and other major elections, where the stakes are particularly high. In the 1962 race for Governor of Minnesota, for example, the state’s supreme court split three-to-two along party lines on a dispute over error correction in the canvassing of returns. The upright citizens of the North Star State were so embarrassed by this politicized ruling that the two candidates subsequently agreed to create their own bipartisan court to adjudicate the recount that followed the canvass.

It would be nice if in every contested election, due to a sense of fair play, the competing candidates agreed on a set of procedures for resolving their dispute. But the increased acrimony of contemporary politics would likely prevent the repeat of such an agreement even in Minnesota, where partisanship remains relatively less hard-edged than elsewhere.

Consequently, if there are to be fair procedures for resolving a contested election, they need to exist before the ballots are cast and counted. There is a widespread consensus among election law scholars that fair procedures in this context include clear and specific rules spelled out in advance for handling any issue that might arise. But another important lesson of the five-state study identified at the outset is that it is impossible for any state’s election code to stipulate the correct outcome to every dispute that could possibly occur. Moreover, even if the state’s code writers were omnisciently clairvoyant, malleable constitutional clauses in the hands of politically motivated judges could render irrelevant a perfectly crafted code. For this reason, as important as it is to write an election code as best as one can, it is even more important to create an evenly bipartisan tribunal for implementing this code when it is invoked in a contested election. That way both sides will have equal representation in the event that politics influences how the judges view the merits.

Of course, a tribunal with an even number of members is a recipe for stalemate. The experiences of the FEC and EAC confirm as much. Thus, a well-structured bipartisan tribunal would have a mechanism whereby the even number of equally divided members would agree upon an additional tiebreaker member. For example, if the bipartisan tribunal consisted of two Democrats and two Republicans (chosen perhaps by the majority and minority leaders in each house of the state’s legislature), then these four members would select a mutually agreeable fifth member—or face the prospect that any election contest resulting in a tie vote would be resolved by a coin toss.

A Legislative Proposal. Accordingly, I would favor legislation in each state to place the authority to adjudicate election contests in a specialized Elections Court structured along these lines, rather than in the state’s conventional supreme court (which, whether elected or appointed, is unlikely to be inherently and evenly bipartisan in the same way). Membership on this Elections Court obviously would not be a full-time job. If a state were lucky, years or even decades would pass before it would need to convene for a contest in a major statewide race. But the infrequency of its active docket would not prevent selecting its members on a regular basis, to be ready in the event that a contest occurred. Once a decade, or as vacancies occurred, new members could be designated according to established procedures. This body would be the fairest one possible for resolving any future disputed election—at least in the absence of a mutually agreeable alternative, as developed in Minnesota’s 1962 gubernatorial election.

This legislative proposal, however, has little chance of being adopted under current conditions. To the extent that legislatures engage in reform of their state’s voting procedures, they tend to overlook the procedures for adjudicating election contests and focus instead on the procedures for casting or counting ballots (or on pre-voting procedures, like registration). One possible explanation may be that election administrators also tend to put a lower priority on the rules and procedures for judicial adjudication of election contests: not only are contests relatively infrequent, but they are outside the direct authority of the administrators themselves. Therefore, when lobbying their state’s legislatures for reforms, the administrators focus on more immediate concerns. Their priorities are not necessarily misplaced and, indeed, may reduce the number of contested elections even further. (Administrative reforms that lower the likelihood of problems in the casting and counting of ballots should remove potential grounds for fighting over the results in a close race.) Still, these reforms do not concern the procedures for resolving a contested election if and when one does occur.

The state’s judiciary, too, is unlikely to lobby the legislature for reform of election contest procedures. Despite their importance, election contests are simply too small a fraction of the judiciary’s overall docket, encompassing criminal cases and the full range of civil litigation, to warrant the judiciary’s priority when it comes to lobbying the legislature for reforms. In any event, the state’s supreme court may be reluctant to support a reform that removes election contests from its jurisdiction by placing them in a specialized tribunal.

No other well-organized group appears to have the political clout to push this proposal through the legislature. “Good government” groups, like the League of Women Voters, might come to embrace its merits, but they are unlikely to be successful—especially if the judiciary is not merely indifferent, but instead actively opposes removing these cases from the supreme court’s jurisdiction.

Reform Without Legislation. What then? My suggestion is for proponents of this reform to create their own “shadow” Elections Court that will model the behavior of an appropriately bipartisan tribunal. (This suggestion is inspired in part by FactCheck.org insofar as it attempts to develop a private-sector institution that will exert a quasi-regulatory pressure on the election-related conduct of political actors, in a context where regulation by a government body is infeasible or suboptimal.) This shadow court will issue its own opinions, which although lacking authority may embarrass existing courts to emulate the model. These opinions could even be submitted as amicus briefs to the actual courts faced with the task of adjudicating election contests. Over time, these amicus briefs might come to have an especially enhanced status in the eyes of the actual courts, assuming that the shadow court develops a strong reputation for scrupulous bipartisanship (and also maintains a high level of professional excellence in its amicus submissions).

Moreover, if and when an actual court deviates from an amicus opinion of the shadow court—and the actual court’s decision appears to be motivated by mere partisanship—this deviation might generate some momentum for the proposal to assign election contests to a tribunal structured along the lines of the shadow court. Especially if the shadow court is held in exceptionally high regard (being the bluest of blue-ribbon panels), the impetus may exist to replace the cravenly political supreme court with a fair tribunal that looks like the shadow court. In this way, the creation of a fair bipartisan Elections Court, although entirely powerless at first, may acquire real power simply by modeling the necessary fairness; call it the “Field of Dreams” approach to election law reform.

The key, then, is the composition of this shadow court. It must track the structure of the legislative proposal it is designed to support (and for which it serves as a second-best substitute in the interim). Thus, it must have an equal number of Democrats and Republicans, and it must choose a tiebreaking member. If the election reform community embraces this idea, it must vigilantly adhere to this structure, so that the shadow court can become perceived as inherently and strictly bipartisan.

This shadow court could be nationwide in the scope of its operations. In other words, whenever a significant election contest arises in any state, the shadow court would convene and issue its own “decision” in the case. The members of the shadow court (other than the tiebreaking member) could be selected with input from the DNC and RNC, or some other method could be developed to assure even bipartisanship. Members could be law professors, former public officials, or other lawyers who could perform the role of a judge in an election contest. The goal would be to select members whose participation on this model tribunal, as well as their prior careers, would enhance the shadow court’s public reputation for bipartisan fairness.

If well selected, the members of the shadow court would strive hard to sublimate their partisan affiliations for the sake of resolving the contest as objectively as they can according to the existing law of the state in question. The fact that the members of the shadow court would have a national perspective might help minimize the temptation to twist the available law to fit a desired partisan outcome. It would be hoped, too, that the tiebreaker member of the shadow court would be capable of exercising leadership to minimize dissent among other members of this model tribunal. (Ideally, the frequency of dissenting opinions on this shadow court would be much lower than their frequency among actual supreme courts adjudicating election contests.) Temperament certainly would be a factor in the ability of this shadow court to be successful: some partisan members would be more willing than others to serve constructively for the sake of the enterprise. But I certainly can imagine well-respected experts in election law with both Democratic and Republican affiliations who, if selected for this model tribunal, would participate in precisely the proper spirit.

In any event, there is no reason not to create this shadow court, at least on an experimental basis. Doing so will not slow the movement towards the creation of actual specialized election courts that are structured to be evenly—and thus fairly—bipartisan. There is no such movement at present, and the creation of this shadow court is the best (and perhaps only) means of getting this movement started.

Money for Data: Funding the Oldest Unfunded Mandate

By Thad Hall
Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science
Research Fellow, Institute of Public and International Affairs
University of Utah

and Daniel P. Tokaji

Federal elections are the country’s oldest unfunded mandate. The Constitution gives Congress power to make or alter rules for federal elections, but the task of running those elections has long been left to state and local governments. To this day, state and local governments still bear the costs of running federal elections, while being required to follow complicated rules laid down by the federal government. We propose a significant alteration to this longstanding state of affairs.

Federal elections are the country’s oldest unfunded mandate. The Constitution gives Congress power to make or alter rules for federal elections, but the task of running those elections has long been left to state and local governments. To this day, state and local governments still bear the costs of running federal elections, while being required to follow complicated rules laid down by the federal government. This division of labor has unfortunate consequences for both sides. State and local election officials lack the resources they need to administer elections optimally. At the same time, it is often difficult to tell where the most serious electoral problems lie, or even whether federal laws are being followed, due to the notoriously poor quality of information on how elections are actually being run.

We propose a significant alteration to this longstanding state of affairs. The federal government should provide an ongoing stream of money to state and local governments for the conduct of federal elections. In exchange, state and local election officials would have to provide comprehensive and reliable data to the federal government on such matters as registration, turnout, voting equipment, absentee voting, provisional ballots, and disability access. Those that provide incomplete or inaccurate information would lose their federal funding. This would make it much easier to evaluate the results of federal election reform and to diagnose problems before they result in post-election meltdowns like the one Florida experienced in 2000, or near-misses like the one Ohio saw in 2004.

Election Administration, Yesterday and Today

Elections today are, of course, much different than they were at the country’s founding. In those days, the franchise was sharply restricted — white men only, please! — and the means of voting were quite different. Citizens voted by voice or by raising their hands in some places or on party-slate paper ballots. The demands that the federal government put on the states were also minimal. In the early years of the republic, moreover, it was much cheaper to administer elections than it is today. The political parties printed ballots, distributed ballots, provided the poll workers, and counted the ballots at the end of the day. With the innovation of the secret ballot, parties no longer played quite as prominent role, although they still help staff polling places and count the ballots.

Today, federal elections are primarily run by the state and local election officials, with numerous federal rules governing the process. Laws with abbreviations like HAVA, NVRA, UOCAVA, VRA, and ADA play an important role in determining who can vote, where they register and vote, what type of equipment they use to vote, and what happens if there is a problem voting. The federal government not only mandates that states conduct its elections, but also sets detailed rules as to how those elections are to be conducted. This puts state and local election officials in a real bind, given that elections are competing against many other programs — like education, health care, and law enforcement — for a very limited pool of funds. When creating a reliable statewide voter registration system would require closing a public hospital, for example, it is small wonder that state legislatures often choose to focus on what seems the more urgent priority. The consequence is that state and local governments have trouble running elections in the manner that federal law requires and that voters rightfully expect.

To be clear, we are not against the federal government making rules for the conduct of federal elections. In fact, we believe that the federal government should play a central role in ensuring that citizens’ voting rights are protected, and that there is some consistency in how federal elections are administered across the country. At the same time, it is essential that the federal government help pay for federal elections that state and local entities conduct, even though it is not constitutionally required to do so. Congress provided some funding for election administration through HAVA, the Help America Vote Act of 2002, but that funding was limited both in its amount and in its duration. HAVA did not provide the ongoing support for elections that state and local governments so desperately need.

A Money-for-Data Exchange

What we propose is a simple trade: The federal government would provide an ongoing source of funds for state and local governments to run elections. In return, state and local officials would have the obligation to collect and provide to the federal government data on the performance of their election systems. States that provide quality precinct-level data get paid. Those that provide incomplete or inaccurate data would not get paid.

At first glance, the need for better elections data might not be immediately apparent. Anyone who has carefully studied election administration, however, knows that the lack of adequate and reliable data presents an enormous challenge for researchers and reformers. In 2004, the U.S. Election Assistance Commission funded a survey of all 50 states’ election systems. In several areas, states failed to provide the requested information or provided incomplete information. Even where information was provided, inconsistencies in the way that the data was gathered made it difficult to draw reliable cross-state comparisons. Yet the federal government has no carrot or stick by which it can induce the states to provide more comprehensive and accurate data on their election systems.

Reliable data is the mother’s milk for studying election reform. If we do not have complete and accurate data on election administration — the number of voters casting ballots, the number of undervotes and overvotes, the number of provisional ballots cast, the number of poll workers at each polling place, or the number of early and absentee ballots cast in the election — it is almost impossible to know if election reforms are working (or not) and how well states are serving the needs of their voters. The absence of reliable data makes it difficult to adopt the Moneyball Approach to Election Reform that one of us has recommended, in which election reforms are based on careful research rather than seat-of-the-pants judgments. It also poses a challenge for Professor Heather Gerken’s proposed Democracy Index, which would make cross-state comparisons of election administration.

Better information is thus a precondition for future election reform. Without reliable data, we cannot intelligently assess the results of election laws like HAVA, much less determine what changes should be made prospectively. Trading data for money would allow the states to get the money they need to improve their elections processes and systems and for the federal government to get the information they need to evaluate the performance of our democracy.

Getting Better Data

The initial part of the trade requires the federal government to spend some money and work with states to develop common standards for the collecting and reporting of election data and an interoperable system for reporting these data. This is actually much more difficult than it might sound. Today, it is difficult enough to get all states to collect data on the number of ballots cast in the election — approximately 10 states cannot report this simple number! — or to have a common definition regarding what constitutes an early or absentee ballot. States need to collect a standard set of data with standard data definitions.

For its part, the federal government also needs to provide states and localities with the software to collect and report these data. The Internet could provide a simple mode for such data reporting and collecting although other systems may also work as well. With these common data definitions and a common reporting system in place, the trade of federal funds for elections in which states report data could be made.

What we are proposing is not without precedent. During World War II, in the 1942 elections the federal government did allow states to apply for compensation for the costs associated with providing voting services to military voters stationed overseas. More recently, of course, HAVA provided money to the states to implement changes in such areas as voting equipment, voter registration, provisional ballots, and disability access. But it is hard to know how well these reforms have worked in real-world elections, given the paucity and unreliability of existing data sources.

It is clear that the work of election reform is far from complete. State and local governments continue to struggle to meet voters’ needs with insufficient resources. At the same time, the absence of reliable data has hampered our collective ability to evaluate the success of HAVA and other existing laws. If we are to have real election reform in the future, the federal government needs to provide federal money in exchange for better data from state and local election officials.

The Politics of Justice

By Daniel P. Tokaji

In recent weeks, the controversy surrounding the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) has taken an especially disturbing turn. What started as a scandal about the unjustified firings of a few U.S. attorneys now appears to be something much different — and much more serious. There is increasing evidence that officials at DOJ used their authority in a partisan manner, exaggerating claims of voter fraud in an effort to suppress participation by likely Democratic voters and thereby to advance Republican political prospects.

To be sure, the evidence of partisan manipulation on the part of DOJ is largely circumstantial. The officials charged with enforcing federal voting laws have, of course, never admitted that they were using their authority for partisan purposes. But as stated here by Marty Lederman, the pattern of conduct on the part of high-level officials at DOJ and elsewhere in the Administration suggests “the abuse of governmental authority for partisan ends,” through actions relating to voter fraud, voter registration, and voter identification.

Although they have only recently garnered widespread public attention, the signs of partisan manipulation of voting laws by DOJ have actually been there for some time, predating the tenure of current Attorney General Alberto Gonzales. Taken alone, any of these developments might have an innocent explanation, but when viewed together they create an unsettling picture of a department with a partisan enforcement agenda:

– In 2004, the New Yorker published this story on the DOJ’s voter integrity efforts. At the time, I noted concerns of the civil rights community that DOJ would be “unduly focused on combatting fraud at the expense of promoting access, and that so-called ‘integrity’ efforts will be targeted mainly at communities of color.”

– Shortly before the 2004 election, DOJ filed an amicus brief in a federal case out of Michigan, concerning the counting of provisional ballots cast by those in the wrong precinct. DOJ not only argued against counting those votes, but also against private citizens being able to sue to protect rights protected by HAVA. The latter position — ultimately rejected by the Sixth Circuit — would have given DOJ a monopoly on bringing alleged HAVA violations before the courts.

– In April 2005, Arizona’s Democratic Governor Janet Napolitono vetoed a proposed voter ID bill on the ground that it conflicted with HAVA by requiring voters to show ID in order to obtain a provisional ballot. Later that month, DOJ issued this letter, which offered a remarkable and unjustifiable interpretation of HAVA’s provisional voting provisions. As I noted here, the letter opined that HAVA allows states to condition a provisional ballot on the production of ID. Several months later, DOJ issued another letter which purported to “clarify” its earlier guidance, but in reality retracted the earlier mistaken advice.

– In August 2005, DOJ precleared Georgia’s law requiring the nation’s most restrictive voter identification law, requiring voters to present government-issued photo ID in order to have their votes counted. The Washington Post later obtained an internal DOJ memorandum, showing that career staff had recommended against preclearance, based on evidence that blacks were more likely to lack the requisite ID than whites. Nevertheless, on the very next day after this 51-page memo, DOJ precleared Georgia’s ID law. As I noted when this memo was released: “It can only heighten concerns that DOJ has made its mission of protecting the voting rights of racial minorities subservient to partisan political interests.”

– The past several years have seen an exodus of career lawyers from the DOJ, especially from its voting rights section. As the Washington Post reported in 2005: “Longtime litigators complain that political appointees have cut them out of hiring and major policy decisions, including approvals of controversial GOP redistricting plans in Mississippi and Texas.” Even by that time, then, there was considerable evidence that DOJ had become more politicized than ever, provoking the question whether Justice could be trusted with the enormous power to enforce voting rights with which it is vested. For one perspective on the DOJ’s placement of partisan politics above civil rights enforcement, see Why I Left the Civil Rights Division by Bob Kengle, former Deputy Chief in the Voting Section.

When the most recent developments in the unfolding DOJ story are viewed against this backdrop, it becomes clear that there’s even more there than meets the eye. Among the most serious is the DOJ’s violation of its own policy of avoiding overt investigations prior to elections, which might “chill[] legitimate voting and campaign activities.” DOJ officials reportedly claim an unwritten exception to this policy in cases of voter registration fraud. As Gerry Hebert notes, such ad hoc exceptions are very troubling, since they jeopardize the evenhanded enforcement of law that ought to be paramount whenever the DOJ intervenes in election disputes.

Most recently, McClatchy News featured this story on how DOJ”s “voter fraud” efforts may have curbed citizens from voting. The story focused on the efforts of Hans von Spakovsky, alleged to have been “a key player in a Republican campaign to hang onto power in Washington by suppressing the votes of minority voters.” The story discusses Mr. von Spakovsky’s involvement in the Arizona and Georgia controversies, discussed above. The most serious allegation concerns the pressure that Mr. von Spakovsky appears to have exerted on the EAC to conform to DOJ’s erroneous position on provisional ballots for voters lacking ID. In response, former Republican Commissioner Paul DeGregorio wrote that, if von Spakovsky’s communication was in fact “an attempt by you to put pressure on me …. I do not appreciate it.” (In the interest of disclosure, I note that the McClatchy report also reveals Mr. von Spakovsky’s objections to my own participation in a study of voter ID funded by the EAC.)

DOJ’s actions are particularly difficult to defend, given the mounting evidence that claims of voting fraud have been greatly exaggerated by some on the right. As Professor Lori Minnite writes in a recent report entitled The Politics of Voting Fraud: “The claim that voter fraud threatens the integrity of American elections is itself a fraud.” Professor Minnite’s argument finds further support in the meager results of the DOJ’s aggressive anti-fraud campaign, and the report of Tova Wang and Job Serebrov — originally prepared for, but not released by, the EAC — finding “widespread but not unanimous agreement that there is little polling place fraud.”

The fact that air is quickly escaping from the voter-fraud balloon is confirmed by the abrupt disappearance of the American Center for Voting Rights. Formerly led by Mark P. “Thor” Hearne, who had served as National Elections Counsel to Bush-Cheney 2004, ACVR issued a lengthy and misleading report in 2005. As described here, this report sought to create the impression that fraud was rampant, especially in communities of color, based mostly on unconfirmed and specious media reports. But as Rick Hasen has recently observed, ACVR has now vanished as quickly as it appeared after the 2004 election.

There is also increasing evidence that the means most commonly suggested to target alleged voter fraud — restrictive identification requirements — are likely to have a disparate impact on certain classes of likely Democratic voters, especially racial minorities. That evidence includes this report from M.V. Hood and Charles Bullock, finding that African Americans, Latinos, and the elderly are less likely to have DMV-issued photo ID in Georgia. It also includes this one from the Brennan Center, finding that minorities, elderly people, and the poor are disproportionately represented among the more than 21 million U.S. citizens who lack government-issued ID.

To be clear, I do not claim that everyone who supports strict ID or registration rules is bent on suppressing votes. Some may legitimately believe the myth that polling place fraud is widespread and that photo ID is an effective means by which to combat such fraud. It is difficult to maintain with a straight face, however, that the sophisticated lawyers in control of the levers of power at DOJ were driven by similarly benign motives. The evidence continues to mount that claims of voting fraud have been greatly exaggerated for partisan ends — namely, suppressing the votes of those who are already among the least likely to participate in our democracy.

Auditing a State’s Laws for Resolving Election Contests

Each state in the nation needs to develop a regular institutional process by which it easily updates, in light of the experience of other states, its own laws that will govern in the event that a close election in that state ends up in a legal dispute. The need for this routine rule-revising regime is an idea developed in a paper entitled The Analysis and Mitigation of Electoral Errors: Theory, Practice, and Policy, which I presented last month at the Conference on Elections and Democracy at Stanford Law School. The paper will be published by the Stanford Law & Policy Review, one of the conference’s co-sponsors.

The paper endeavors to contribute in several different ways to current discussions of how to improve voting administration. The first part of the paper continues the conversation on how one might measure the quality of a state’s voting administration, a topic energized by Heather Gerken’s proposal for the creation of a “Democracy Index,” which I have discussed previously in this space, as has she. The second part presents a preliminary analysis of one portion of a five-state study of voting administration that my Election Law @ Moritz colleagues and I are conducting with the support of the Joyce Foundation. The third part identifies some policy proposals suggested by this preliminary analysis.

In this commentary, I wish to highlight one of these policy proposals, which builds upon an idea originally propounded by Rick Hasen. The idea is that states periodically should audit the rules and procedures applicable in the event of a dispute over the outcome of an election. The purpose of these periodic audits is to discover ambiguities or other uncertainties with these rules and procedures, since these legal uncertainties would exacerbate the difficulties associated with any disputed election. To the extent that a state’s law unambiguously specifies how to resolve any particular dispute that might arise, the scope of disagreement is narrowed considerably, if not eliminated entirely. As a result, the party that ends up losing the dispute is much more likely to accept the winner’s legitimacy—an end result surely worth striving for in a democracy.

In echoing Rick’s suggestion, I want to emphasize two points. First, while a periodic audit of the full range of a state’s voting administration laws might be valuable, a particular institutional mechanism should exist to focus specifically on those laws that might affect the resolution of a post-balloting dispute over who is the winning candidate. To distinguish these focused audits from more general ones, we can call them Election Contest Law Audits (or “ECLAs,” for short), as “election contest” is the generally prevailing term for any legal dispute that arises over the outcome of an election, and thus the law applicable to the resolution of an election contest would be Election Contest Law.

This body of applicable law, to be sure, encompasses more than just the procedures for conducting the election contest itself. It necessarily also includes any substantive rules that govern the resolution of any particular disputed point serving as the basis for the legal contest. For example, because the outcome of an election contest might turn on the rules for what an eligible voter must do to become registered, these registration rules would form part of the state’s Election Contest Law even though they do not concern the procedures for conducting the contest itself. Consequently, as a practical matter, there is likely to be a considerable overlap between a state’s Election Contest Law and the full range of its laws concerning voting administration. Even so, the overlap will be far from complete, as many details of voting administration cannot serve as the basis for contesting the outcome of an election. For example, a state’s voting administration law may include provisions for the payment of poll workers, which would be irrelevant to the identification of the winner.

In any event, the important conceptual point here is that an ECLA would look specifically for ways in which uncertainty in a state’s law might complicate the resolution of an election contest. The ECLA would not review a state’s laws for the purpose of making voting more convenient or making voting administration less expensive or achieving other efficiencies or improvements. While these other objectives are certainly worthwhile, they should be pursued in other ways. The purpose of the ECLA is the single-minded pursuit of reducing legal uncertainty that might arise in the context of an election contest.

Second, to maximize the effectiveness of an ECLA in each state, it is necessary to create a multistate clearinghouse of information, so that each state can learn from the election contests that have occurred in other states. This point is the extension of Rick’s initial suggestion that results from the five-state analysis presented in my Stanford paper. Simply put, each state has uncertainties in its own Election Contest Law that could be eliminated merely by adopting another state’s position on the particular issue.

Uncertainty exists in part because it is difficult to anticipate all the specific circumstances likely to arise in an election contest. Fortunately, election contests are sufficiently infrequent that no state “has seen it all before,” or indeed has seen very much of what specifically has occurred elsewhere. “The devil is in the details” is an aphorism especially apt for election contests, and it matters little that a state’s Election Contest Law has sound general principles but has not anticipated how to handle the myriad of devilish details that emerge in actual disputes. If each state undertook to clarify in advance how it would resolve all the specific issues that have arisen in election contests in other states, then the scope of uncertainty in each state would reduce dramatically.

In principle, it should be fairly straightforward to establish a multistate clearinghouse that could easily convey to each state the collective wisdom from all states, including updates in time for each state’s next periodic audit. These updates would digest the details of all new election contests from around the country since that state’s last periodic audit. In this way, each state’s ongoing reduction of uncertainty would be based on not only its own experience with disputed elections, but the recent experience of all other states.

Surely, one of the existing multistate organizations concerned with voting administration law—National Association of Secretaries of State (NASS), the National Association of State Election Directors (NASED), the National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL), the National Center for State Courts (NCSC), or the U.S. Election Assistance Commission (EAC)—could take on the creation of this clearinghouse of information as a project. (If they have done so, I confess that I am unaware of it, and would welcome learning of its existence. As far as I know, the clearinghouse that the University of Florida has contracted with the EAC to provide is not focused on identifying, and reducing, uncertainties in each state’s Election Contest Law in the way that I have described.) There is no need for the clearinghouse to take a position on what the correct answer to a disputed issue should be. If states that already confronted a particular question diverge on how they answer it, the clearinghouse can simply identify the states on each side of the issue. What is important is simply that the clearinghouse alert all states that the issue is one that needs an answer. As a bonus, the clearinghouse can provide alternative answers for each state to consider, based on the experience of others states with the same issue. The utility of this clearinghouse would be proportionate to the quality of the organization by which it conveyed its essential information to the states. As I was reminded by the research undertaken for my Stanford paper, there is no dearth of available information concerning how states have resolved election contests that have occurred over the years. The challenge, however, lies in organizing and presenting this abundance of information in a way that is most accessible for each state when engaged in the focused task of spotting holes in its own set of contest-resolving rules.

For any state to take advantage of the service that this kind of clearinghouse would provide, the state would need the flexibility to make frequent changes to its own Election Contest Law after completion of each periodic audit. As I indicate in the Stanford paper, flexibility of this sort presumably would require that states authorize administrative agencies to update their Election Contest Law, rather than insisting that their legislatures retain this revision authority. Legislatures are simply too busy with too many different kinds of pressing public policy matters to devote the attention necessary to fill gaps in their Election Contest Law exposed by recent election contests that have occurred in other states.

States would do well, then, to consider how this sort of administrative agency should be structured and what mechanism might exist for its revisions of the state’s Election Contest Law to be put before the legislature for review. (One possibility is that the agency’s revision takes effect unless the legislature within 60 days acts to repudiate the revision.) States have a lot on their plates right now in terms of potential election law reforms: most are still undertaking the implementation of their HAVA-mandated databases, and some are reconsidering the voting equipment they purchased with HAVA funds just a few short years ago. Many states are also still struggling to implement effectively HAVA’s provisional voting requirements, and virtually all states are coping with the increasingly difficult challenges of recruiting and training highly competent poll workers. In this context, it might seem too much to ask states to develop an institutional reform that would lodge the authority to revise a substantial portion of their voting administration laws in an agency that is either entirely new or at least never entrusted with this degree of legislative power.

The overriding value of this regular auditing process, however, is too great to neglect. As important as all the other reforms are, they are in some respects superfluous in elections that are not close enough in their outcomes to be worth contesting. The rules matter most in a situation where they can make a difference as to which candidate will win a tight race. It is not surprising, then, that the public expresses the greatest concern about voting procedures when they potentially affect the result of a race that the public particularly cares about. Thus, there is an inherent efficiency in focusing the efforts of election law reform on reducing the uncertainties that might arise if a close election is disputed. If law reformers were able to identify and eliminate in advance of the next election every uncertainty that might form the basis of a challenge in a close vote, the reformers would have put in place an exemplary set of voting procedures, which should satisfy both public and expert opinion on the need for change.

Accordingly, among all the activities that states are currently undertaking to improve their systems for voting administration, a high priority should be placed on the development of the auditing process I have described. Its key features would be new institutional arrangements in each state authorized to update expeditiously the Election Contest Law there, in light of the flow of well-organized information from a multi-state clearinghouse that tracks disputed elections.

Courts Need to Keep a Skeptical Eye on New Voter Identification Laws

By Richard L. Hasen
William H. Hannon Distinguished Professor of Law at Loyola Law School

If one is looking for a silver lining in the controversy over the firings of 8 U.S. attorneys by the Bush Administration, it is that the controversy has drawn well-deserved attention to the question of “voter fraud” and the extraordinary measures some have used to manipulate election laws for political advantage under the cover of preventing such fraud. Now is the time for the courts to get involved to block new onerous voter identification laws until those supporting such laws can come up with real evidence of voter fraud that an ID would deter.

If one is looking for a silver lining in the controversy over the firings of 8 U.S. attorneys by the Bush Administration, it is that the controversy has drawn well-deserved attention to the question of “voter fraud” and the extraordinary measures some have used to manipulate election laws for political advantage under the cover of preventing such fraud. Now is the time for the courts to get involved to block new onerous voter identification laws until those supporting such laws can come up with real evidence of voter fraud that an ID would deter.

Many readers are familiar with the U.S. attorney scandal/vote fraud investigation connection: one of the reasons (if not the only reason) for the firing of the U.S. attorneys in New Mexico and in Washington State was their supposed failure to prosecute individuals for illegally voting. These attorneys defended themselves by noting that they conducted extensive investigations of vote fraud allegations, but found no cases they thought they could successfully prosecute.

But there’s a broader story as well that is only now getting media attention. Since the 2000 Florida fiasco, there’s been a partisan battle going on in state legislatures to change the rules for administering our elections. Many Democrats have favored reforms that make it easier for people to vote (such as election day registration); Republicans, in contrast, have argued for new voter photo identification laws that they say would prevent fraud at polling places. Democrats contend these laws are likely to disenfranchise a number of legal voters, such as poor voters who can’t afford the documents (such as birth certificates) needed to obtain the ID, or to get transportation to a state office that could issue one.

The debate over these laws took place in an empirical vacuum over how much fraud such ID’s would prevent and over how many legitimate voters would be deterred by identification requirements. Despite the empirical vacuum, laws imposing new voter ID laws have been passed in a number of states—including Georgia, Indiana, and Missouri–basically on party-line votes.

Courts struck down the Georgia and Missouri laws, but all eyes are now on Indiana, where the Seventh Circuit, in an influential opinion by Judge Posner, upheld that state’s voter identification law. Despite the state’s inability to point to a single instance of voter fraud that a voter ID law would help to prevent, Judge Posner said the law could go forward, because it was not a big deal if some voters would lose their right to vote, even assuming, as Posner did, that more Democratic voters would be deterred by the law than Republican voters. (A Democratic-appointed judge dissented, and the Seventh Circuit split virtually on party lines in deciding not to take the case en banc, to be reheard by the entire Seventh Circuit).

Judge Posner said the law could be justified as an anti-fraud measure, and that just because voter fraud is difficult to detect doesn’t mean it’s not there. Though he pointed to the “notorious examples [of fraud in] Florida and Illinois, they include Michigan, Missouri, and Washington (state),” he did so without citation and there’s no evidence I am aware of from these states that shows any real problem of the kind of fraud that a voter ID law would prevent: primarily people voting in the name of someone else.

Thanks to the U.S. attorney scandal and the focus on vote fraud, this kind of sloppy reasoning no longer holds water. As recent media reports revealed, despite a concerted 5-year effort by the Justice Department to target instances of voter fraud, the DOJ found almost none of it, certainly no organized effort to use identification fraud to cast illegal ballots. And of those who were prosecuted, many appeared to have made innocent mistakes. Moreover, as a New York Times article revealed, a bipartisan study of voter fraud commissioned by the U.S. Election Assistance Commission (and then withheld by the EAC) found virtually no instances of impersonation voter fraud. Another non-partisan study found that voter identification laws suppress turnout, especially among minorities; and this report was disavowed by the EAC (though released under pressure).

There have been instances of fraud in association with elections. Many of these involve registration fraud (which does not result in the casting of fraudulent votes), absentee ballot fraud and the buying of votes in local elections. Notably, absentee balloting has been exempt from the new voter identification laws; perhaps not coincidentally, absentee ballots tend to skew Republican. These instances of vote buying have not been so difficult to detect, despite the harsh penalties for such clearly illegal conduct, and it is not clear why polling place fraud would be any harder to uncover.

It is now incumbent upon those who still believe a great deal of voter fraud is taking place at the polls to come forward with sound methodology to show that such fraud is occurring on any kind of scale that would justify voter identification laws. (The main nongovernmental organization contending that polling place voter fraud is a serious problem, the American Center for Voting Rights, has mysteriously disappeared.) Until such fraud is shown, these laws should be viewed skeptically by the courts.

But some who raise the fraud arguments do not appear to have an interest in empirical evidence. Just ask Indiana’s Secretary of State, Todd Rokita, who, in the leaked draft EAC report, is quoted as believing in voter fraud more as a matter of religious faith than on empirical evidence. This should not be surprising. Secretary Rokita, despite being the state’s chief election officer charged with fairly administering the elections, recently gave a speech to a political group about how the GOP can start winning more elections again. He is also serving as chief fundraiser for a Republican presidential candidate.

Instead of engaging in partisan political activities, as chief elections officer he should now be calling for the Indiana legislature to repeal its law until someone can show polling place fraud as a serious problem (or even potential problem) in Indiana. I doubt Secretary Rokita will take such a step. It likely will take the Supreme Court’s intervention at this point to stop the Indiana voter identification law from being in effect in 2008.

— Richard L. Hasen, the William H. Hannon Distinguished Professor of Law at Loyola Law School, writes the Election Law Blog. He explores the voter identification issue further in Part III of The Untimely Death of Bush v. Gore, 60 Stanford Law Review (forthcoming 2007).

Running Elections in Cuyahoga County Next Year

Jennifer Brunner, Ohio Secretary of State, is justified in seeking removal of all four members of the Cuyahoga County elections board, who ultimately hold responsibility for the egregious mismanagement of the voting process there in 2006 (which followed on the heels of serious failings that occurred in 2004). But Brunner needs quickly to put in place a new bipartisan board, two Democrats and two Republicans, who will be able to exercise all the normal responsibilities of the board in 2008, so that she herself—an elected Democrat—does not displace the board’s authority for making all the local decisions that will arise regarding the casting and counting of ballots in Cuyahoga County in the upcoming presidential election.

Brunner is right to be concerned about preparations for the presidential election in this most-troubled, and most-populous, county. Cuyahoga County’s inability to conduct elections properly—with serious implications for the nation’s ability to pick a President—go back at least as far as 1972, when a systemic failure to deliver voting equipment to polling locations caused, among other problems, 16 precincts never to open on the Tuesday designated for the presidential primary. Consequently, in addition to keeping the polls open until midnight countywide, a federal court ordered a whole new day of voting in those precincts on the following Tuesday.

Having largely forgotten that fiasco, the nation was reminded of Cuyahoga County’s perennial trouble in administering elections when two of its officials were criminally convicted of having rigged the recount of the presidential vote in the 2004 general election. The fact that their motive apparently was laziness, rather than partisanship, does not sufficiently allay concerns about the integrity of vote counting in that county.

The severe problems of the May 2006 primary are too numerous to detail here, but among the most serious are the loss of memory cards electronically recording vote totals from fourteen percent of the county’s precincts and spoiled paper records for ten percent of the county’s electronic votes. Even after all the attention devoted to fixing problems of this sort before the November 2006 general election, major problems persisted. According to a Plain Dealer report, almost 12,000 ballots were cast in Cuyahoga County on November 7 by individuals who did not sign the poll books and whose eligibility to vote apparently was never properly verified by precinct officials, despite the requirements of state law that mandate these procedures. The most likely explanation for this breach of the rules is that substantial confusion occurred at these polling places, and poll workers allowed the individuals in question to bypass the check-in line and go straight to voting machines. Just imagine the nightmare, however, if one of the prominent statewide races last year—for example, the one between Mark Dann and Betty Montgomery for Attorney General—had turned out close enough that these 12,000 ballots provided a basis for contesting the result.

No wonder, then, that Secretary of State Brunner is being aggressive in an effort to prepare Cuyahoga County for 2008. Aggressive steps are necessary, including replacement of the old board with entirely new leadership. Three of the four have appropriately resigned at her request, but the one remaining holdout, Bob Bennett—who also chairs the Republican Party statewide—refuses to leave without a fight. Trying to accuse Brunner of attempting to control the voting process for partisan advantage, Bennett himself looks like he is putting partisan (or perhaps personal) motives before the public interest. (On Capitol Square, the Ohio News Network program, he said that he did not want his reputation tarnished at the end of his career. But prolonging this battle can hardly improve his reputation: the past mismanagement of elections in Cuyahoga County cannot be undone, and while no one thinks he is exclusively to blame for all the administrative errors that occurred there in 2004 and 2006, he surely shares responsibility as a member of the board, just as does the member of a corporate board that fails to prevent financial ineptitude perpetrated by the company’s management.) Rather than clinging to his board position, Bennett should step aside magnanimously—and immediately—so that a different Republican can take his seat, and the newly constituted board can begin tackling the difficult challenge of recruiting and training poll workers as well as all the other steps necessary to make the voting process work properly in May and November 2008.

Still, for her part, Brunner needs to do more to dispel any appearance of partisanship in her own actions. Among the moves she has made is announcing that she is putting the Cuyahoga County elections board under her “administrative oversight” that she says may last until December 31, 2008—after the presidential ballots are cast and counted, the Electoral College has met, and presumably all that is left is for Congress to officially pronounce the winner on January 6, 2009. Although Brunner claims that she is imposing this administrative oversight only to assist the new board in getting ready for 2008 (on the same Capitol Square program she said, “I’m not trying to run this Board. I’m not trying to tell this Board what to do.”), the fear is that she will make decisions for Cuyahoga County designed to favor the Democratic presidential candidate in next November’s voting.

Brunner should announce that, if Bennett resigns and local Republicans nominate a suitable replacement by May 1 (three weeks from today), then she will plan to terminate administrative oversight of the new board by December 31 of this year, rather than next. That timetable gives her, as Secretary of State, eight months to get the new bipartisan board ready to manage its own operations in 2008 in the same way that the local boards in other counties will. If serious problems occur in the May 2008 presidential primary, then Brunner can revisit whether some more drastic arrangement is needed to assure that the voting process works properly in November 2008. But even then the more drastic measure should have a built-in bipartisan structure, so that it is never possible to claim that Democrats control the process of casting and counting presidential ballots in Cuyahoga County.

The requirement of state law that county election boards be bipartisan in their membership is a salutary feature of election administration in Ohio, one that it is often mentioned when comparing our state’s electoral system favorably to others (for example, Florida’s). Some think that it would be even better to have the statewide authority for administering elections be vested in a similarly bipartisan board, rather than a single Secretary of State elected as a partisan candidate. These folks point to Brunner’s predecessor, Ken Blackwell, as Exhibit B to make their case (Exhibit A being Florida’s Katherine Harris). Whatever one’s position on that point, Ohio should not backslide by injecting more partisanship—or even just the appearance of partisanship—into the operation of voting procedures, including the counting and recounting of ballots, at the local level.

The 2008 presidential election in Ohio shows every sign of being an intensely fought campaign. We risk accusations and counter-accusations concerning alleged manipulations of process to give one side or the other an unfair or improper advantage. There should be sufficient statesmanship in this state for political leaders on both sides, while the November 2008 election is still 18 months away, to create a bipartisan mechanism to handle the controversies that inevitably will arise.

That statesmanship should start with Brunner and Bennett engaging in enough diplomacy so that an entirely new bipartisan board in Cuyahoga County can get to work right away and, having had at least half a year of Brunner’s tutelage, be in a position to operate the November 2008 election on the ground in that county as one would expect a local elections board to do.

The Future of Bush v. Gore

As part of the symposium on “Election Law and the Roberts Court” co-sponsored by the Ohio State Law Journal and Election Law @ Moritz (which took place Sept. 29-30, 2006), I have drafted a paper entitled The Future of Bush v. Gore. Like the other papers written for this symposium, it will be published later this year by the Ohio State Law Journal.

I have been asked to share this draft in light of the recent submissions to SSRN of two related papers. Most directly related is Dan Lowenstein’s paper, The Meaning of Bush v. Gore, which is also part of this same symposium and comments on my paper. (I am very grateful for the care and attention he gave my piece, and he and I are discussing with each other, and with the Journal, what form of response to his piece might be appropriate for me to make within the context of the published symposium.) The other is Rick Hasen’s paper, not part of the same symposium (although Rick contributed a separate paper to the symposium), entitled The Untimely Death of Bush v. Gore.

I welcome any feedback on this draft that readers might wish to email me. Readers should know that the paper is in the middle of the Journal cite-checking process.

Additionally, readers interested in the topic of these three papers would do well to consider also my colleague Dan Tokaji’s contribution to the same symposium, Leave It to the Lower Courts: On Judicial Intervention in Election Administration.

 

The Secretary of State’s Complaint Against the Cuyahoga County Board of Elections

By Terri L. Enns

On Monday, March 19, 2007, those who pay attention to such things were startled by the news that on the previous evening, Ohio’s new Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner had placed a call to each of the four members of the bipartisan Cuyahoga County Board of Elections asking them to resign by the end of the day Wednesday. The Secretary stated that her actions were necessary to restore voter confidence and to improve elections in the county, which has been plagued by a series of problems (several studies are linked here) during the past several elections. On Thursday afternoon, March 22, following the resignations of the two Democrats on the Board, the Secretary filed a complaint against the remaining two members, who are Republicans. A hearing is scheduled for Monday, April 2, at 9:00 am in Cuyahoga County and will be presided over by William Owen, First Assistant Prosecuting Attorney in Delaware County, on the Secretary’s behalf.

The Ohio Revised Code gives the Secretary of State considerable power over county boards of elections. The Secretary, in consultation with local party committees, appoints the members of each board, made up of two Republicans and two Democrats who each serve four year terms. ORC 3501.06. The Secretary of State “shall appoint” any qualified elector recommended by the nominee’s county executive committee unless the Secretary “has reason to believe that the elector would not be a competent member of such board.” ORC 3501.07. The Revised Code additionally permits the Secretary of State to “summarily remove or suspend any member of a board of elections … for neglect of duty, malfeasance, misfeasance, or nonfeasance in office, for any willful violation of Title XXXV of the Revised Code [Elections], or for any other good and sufficient cause.” ORC 3501.16.

The Complaint lays out five main charges, the first four of which are labeled “Misfeasance and Nonfeasance,” and the last labeled as “Good and Sufficient Cause for Removal”:

Count 1: “Failure to Adopt Adequate Procedures for Election Recounts Resulting in the Felony Convictions of Two Board Members” (who were convicted and sentenced for negligent misconduct and failure to perform their duties related to a recount in the 2004 presidential election);

Count 2: “Failure to Manage Competently the Board’s Financial Affairs” (including underestimating financial needs and failing to properly administer some federal Help America Vote Act funds);

Count 3: “Failure to Ensure the Efficient Administration of Elections in 2004, 2005 and 2006” (including issues with ballot security and storage, poll book reconciliation, proof reading of ballots, poll worker assignment and training, and registration list management);

Count 4: “Failure to Ensure An Acceptable Level of Performance of Voting Equipment” (including failure to adequately test optical scan machines, which resulted in an expensive hand count of absentee ballots that delayed reporting of results in the May 2006 primary);

Count 5: “Administration of Elections in Cuyahoga County Has Resulted in a Lack of Public Confidence in the Integrity of the Election Process in Cuyahoga County.”

The charges contained in the complaint raise questions about who is best placed to oversee the functioning of those various layers that constitute Ohio’s election administration system. Each county board of elections is to “[m]ake and issue rules and instructions, not inconsistent with law or the rules, directives or advisories issued by the secretary of state, as it considers necessary for the guidance of election officers and voters; …” ORC 3501.11.

The “laws” with which the boards of elections’ rules must comply include constitutional, statutory, and case-made law at the federal and state levels, rules found in the Ohio Administrative Code, and Ohio Attorney General opinions. Additionally, the Secretary of State issues “directives and advisories to members of the boards as to the proper methods of conducting elections; [and p]repare[s] rules and instructions for the conduct of elections;” as well as provides the boards indexed copies of elections laws. ORC 3501.05. The boards of elections must then convey all of those rules and instructions to precinct level officers, who then guide individual poll workers as to the proper application of all of these layered requirements.

The burden for officials at each of these levels is to provide maximum clarity balanced with the proper amount of discretion left to local actors. Too much discretion leaves the state open to Bush v. Gore-type challenges based on disparate standards resulting in differing treatment of voters. Too little discretion risks election outcomes that may not reflect voter intent.

Clarity requires delineation of the entity responsible for oversight of the management of each step, and delineation not only of the consequences for failure to follow the rules, but also for failure to properly exercise those oversight roles. When the law is clear and a board of elections fails to follow it, certainly the blame is properly placed at the board’s feet. However, when the law is unclear or is in flux, as was the case in the final hours of the 2004 presidential election regarding challengers and their access to voters, or regarding identification requirements leading up to the 2006 elections, who should be held responsible? And more importantly, which entity has the authority to impose the required clarity? Lawmakers? The courts? The Secretary of State? Precinct officials?

When assessing the adequacy of Ohio’s current system, it may be useful to look at the complaint levied against the two remaining members of the Cuyahoga County Board of Elections and ask whether any of these charges could be levied against members of other local boards. A “yes” answer does not take away from the seriousness of the situation in Cuyahoga County, but rather should lead stakeholders at all levels to take stock of what changes need to be made on a systemic basis before the critical presidential election period of 2008. There is still time.