– Dr. Andrew Griffith, Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Tennessee

A recent question I received had to do with what the record quantity and value of beef exports in 2021 really means to the domestic cattle industry.

The question was slightly more technical than this, however, the basic concept is that trading beef internationally provides a broader demand for domestically produced product. The more product that is moved, the more price is supported. From a value standpoint, it is all predicated on the price of beef, which is influenced by total demand for beef. This simply means eat more beef to support prices.

– Dr. Kenny Burdine, Extension Professor, Livestock Marketing, University of Kentucky

While spring is typically the high point for calf prices, 2022 marks the third straight year that something significant has taken some steam out of the markets. A global pandemic hammered feeder cattle prices in 2020 and kept our calf market from reaching the levels that were expected. Some of that also spilled into 2021 and was combined with sharply higher grain prices. As we move into spring of 2022, we have the implications from the war in Ukraine, which is impacting the market in many ways.

James did a great job walking through these implications on the cattle markets in last week’s article. Rising feed costs, domestic demand concerns from higher fuel prices, increased transportation costs, and several other factors are impacting cattle prices as you read this. The markets have been attempting to price in these uncertainties for the last few weeks, which has led to a lot of volatility. Markets were generally improved last week, as can be seen in the table below. But, volatility is likely to stay with us as things continue to evolve and the market processes what those Continue reading →

– James Mitchell, Livestock Marketing Specialist, University of Arkansas

I want to start this article by recognizing that what is happening in Ukraine is a humanitarian crisis. I do not want to overlook those important aspects of the war in Ukraine. That said, I am not a geopolitical expert or war strategist. Many well-informed individuals can offer you a better perspective on those issues.

In this article, I want to discuss the far-reaching implications of the Ukraine war for cattle markets. Inflation, grain markets, and energy markets are the main focus. Fertilizer is another big one. There are also domestic beef demand concerns that we need to discuss. Cattle markets are reacting to all of these.

Perhaps the most noticeable impact of the conflict in Ukraine, at least initially, is market volatility. Uncertainty equals price volatility. The war in Ukraine presents markets with a significant degree of uncertainty. As new information arrives, markets incorporate it into prices. What we know today is different from what we will know tomorrow, next week, next month, etc. Markets are trying to work through that Continue reading →

– David P. Anderson, Professor and Extension Economist, Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service

Cow and calf prices have taken divergent paths in recent weeks due to the uncertainty of war, rising feed costs, record cattle on feed, and shifting consumer purchases. Heavier feeder cattle, 750 lb. steers, have dropped dramatically over the last two weeks from about $165 per cwt to $156 per cwt. They remain well above last year’s $138. Lighter weight steers, 550 lb and 450 lb, exhibited little decline and were about $199 and $213 in the first week of March in the Southern Plains. Country auctions further away from feedlots have been hit even harder on price.  Much higher fuel costs are certainly a factor in lower calf prices.

Cull cow prices hit $75 per cwt in the Southern Plains last week, up from $55 in early February. A year ago, 85-90% lean cull cows averaged about $46 per cwt. The five-year average price for the first week of March was about $59 per cwt.

Cow prices are increasing in spite of Continue reading →