Month: November 2021

Rising Food Prices and Beef Demand

– James Mitchell, Livestock Marketing Specialist, University of Arkansas

By now, most of us have probably seen articles in the popular press about food price inflation and the cost of this year’s Thanksgiving dinner. A quick Google search will yield dozens of articles about the topic. Kenny, Josh, and I have colleagues at other institutions who have spent a significant amount of time providing commentary on the issue. Rather than reiterate their comments and analysis, which I largely agree with, I thought I would use this week’s article to discuss the implications for U.S. beef demand.

According to BLS data, food prices in 2021 are averaging 3% higher year-over-year. Beef, pork, and poultry prices are all averaging 3.5-6.5% higher in 2021. The most recent data shows that October was another record-setting month for choice retail beef prices, averaging $7.90/lb or 24% higher year-over-year. The all-fresh retail beef price declined 9% from its high in September but remained 8% above year-ago levels in October.

Some context for the figures cited above is helpful. The 20-year Continue reading Rising Food Prices and Beef Demand →

Observing an Attitude of Gratitude

– Christine Gelley– OSU Extension Agriculture and Natural Resources Educator, Noble County, Ohio

November is upon us. The crispness of fall is in full glory. Hay season is subsiding. Grain harvest is moving along slowly. Even if the workload on the farm slows down after harvest, we still feel rushed as daylight fades earlier and earlier each day.

Everyone I talk to is waiting for a time when life will slow down, they can take a deep breath, and feel that feeling of accomplishment that the hard work has been worth the effort. That they’ve made it to where they want to be. If only we could feel a little of that feeling every day…

Come to think of it, what’s stopping us? Maybe observing a little more of an attitude of gratitude could help us through those days when the workload is too heavy, and the world is too hard. Taking a few minutes each day to Continue reading Observing an Attitude of Gratitude →

Fall Grazing Thoughts

– Chris Penrose, OSU Extension, Morgan County (originally published in Farm and Dairy)

My goals are not to have to feed hay until early December.

For the past couple weeks its really felt like the growing season was coming to an end. Cooler temperatures and shorter days have really slowed down forage growth. Some may already be feeding hay, some may still have several months of grazing remaining. When I mowed the lawn last week, I was wondering if I will need to do it again, and at the same time, I was wondering if I will be able to graze the field I was moving cattle out of one more time.

Over the years, I have seen cool season grasses, especially fescue continue to grow in the fall, so there may still be an opportunity for a little more growth but probably not much. I dug up some old research we did on stockpiling fescue from over 30 years ago in Southeast Ohio and when we applied nitrogen on the first of November, we did not see a significant response in yield but we did see a response from a late September application. At this point, we likely need to figure out how to best use what we have.

Some basic things we need to keep in mind is: do you have Continue reading Fall Grazing Thoughts →

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Punch your feed ticket

– Jeff Lehmkuhler, PhD, PAS, Extension Professor, University of Kentucky

Last month Dr. Bullock and I attended an evening program. One of the sponsors was a local feed company in which the owner had just taken over the company in January. Many of our communities have one of these local feed mills or dealerships. My brother and I both were fortunate to have had the opportunity from the Lubbers family to work in one of these feed mills while in school. This is one of the factors that sparked my interest in animal nutrition and helped set a path for my future career.

My rambling here is because of the recent Beef Bash information I shared, recent farmer meetings, and a string of emails regarding feed prices. My previous feed mill experience also plays a role having seen so many feed tickets. Two weeks ago, I asked a group of producers what they were paying for feed. They said that a bag of corn was $7-$8. Talking about prices on a “bag” unit or 50 pounds is normal for many of our beef operations buying feed for weaned calves or supplementing cows. There are 40 bags weighing 50 pounds in a ton. When you have unloaded as many semis of bagged feed as my brother and I did, you quickly memorized this as you had to count each stack of 10 bags as you wheeled 500 pounds down the ramp matching sure your unloaded inventory matched the billed amount.

The challenge of talking in bag units is that it can Continue reading Punch your feed ticket →

Expected Progeny Differences and their Accuracy

– Steve Boyles, OSU Extension Beef Specialist

This article is a condensed version of material written by M. Spangler. See Beef Sire Selection Manual 3rd Edition, page 19-20

Expected Progeny Differences (EPD) and have been proven to be the most reliable tool to generate change from selection.  Expected Progeny Differences are predictions of genetic merit of an individual as a parent. As the name would imply, they are predictions of the differences in individuals’ offspring performance. Historically, most beef breed associations conducted a genetic evaluation twice annually, meaning that EPD were updated twice a year. However, with the advent of genomic information, new data are continually available. This has necessitated weekly genetic evaluations, and thus updated EPD are available on a weekly basis for the majority of beef cattle breeds.

How Do You Use EPD?

Simply knowing an animal’s EPD for a given trait has no meaning without something to compare it to. This comparison can be between animals or an animal and a point of reference, such as the Continue reading Expected Progeny Differences and their Accuracy →

The Decision to Retain at Weaning During the Fall Calf Run

– Elliott Dennis, Assistant Professor and Livestock Extension Economist, Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Nebraska – Lincoln

The CME futures market appears to be providing some incentives for producers to deliver cattle at later dates. As of October 25, 2021, there is about $2-3 per cwt. increase between contracts with Jan ’22 trading at $158.90 and Apr’22 trading at $163.38, all of which are higher than the Oct ’21 contract of $155.78 and the feeder cattle cash index of $153.35 per cwt.

So how does a producer take those signals and make a retention decision? One way is to combine CME futures price offerings with historical price data across different weights to calculate what is known as the “value of gain”. Then add current and expected feed prices to calculate the “cost of gain”. Finally, compare the calculated value and cost of gain – which provides a simple “feed/no-feed” decision. If the value of gain is greater than the cost of gain then there are financial incentives to retain and feed cattle. However, if the value of gain is less than the cost of gain then there are no market incentives to retain and feed cattle. That said, producers must consider unique factors that could either improve the value of gain or decrease the cost of gain such as additional premiums received from cattle at the time of sale or the ability to get cheaper feed resources from a relative or friend.

To illustrate this decision, I used a Continue reading The Decision to Retain at Weaning During the Fall Calf Run →

Fed Cattle Market Dynamics Appear to be Changing

– Kenny Burdine, Livestock Marketing Specialist, University of Kentucky

Fall is always a critical time for calf markets as so many spring born calves are sold. However, it has been very interesting to watch fed cattle prices this fall as well. I generally pay close attention any time a market moves counter to its normal seasonal pattern and that has been the case for fed cattle prices this year. The 5 Market Weighted Average weekly price chart is shown above and details what I am talking about. Note that a normal trend (red line) is for slaughter cattle prices to make their peak in the spring and move steadily downward through summer and early fall. Yet in 2021, fed cattle prices have trended upward since spring and did not put in a fall bottom at all. The last few weeks have been especially encouraging as prices have risen by more than $6 per cwt since the first week of October.

Several factors are behind this and are worth discussion. Last month, Josh discussed record beef export levels for the month of August. While export levels decreased from August to September, they remained Continue reading Fed Cattle Market Dynamics Appear to be Changing →

Pasture, Rangeland, Forage (PRF) Enrollment Open; a Risk Management Tool Cattlemen Should Consider

– Mike Estadt, OSU Extension Educator, Pickaway County

Cattlemen and hay producers have an opportunity to enroll in an area-based insurance program that protects them against yield losses caused by low precipitation This management tool is designed to give the policy holder the ability to help cover the replacement feed costs when a loss of forage for grazing or harvested for hay occurs because of the lack of rainfall

Area-based means that indemnity payments will not be based upon individual producer’s experience, rather,  payments will be based upon a grid’s deviation from historically normal rainfall.  A producer will have to make several choices including the coverage level of forage production they wish to insure, the rainfall index (months of precipitation), the productivity level of the field or fields they wish to enroll and the number of acres they wish to insure.

Let us explore these choices in a bit of detail.  It is important that the producer select the correct grid for the field or fields that they wish to insure against loss.  Each grid is roughly a 17 square mile area equal to 0.25 degrees in latitude by 0.25 degrees in longitude. The pin in Figure 1  is the Eastern Research Station in Noble County.  Each  grid  is given a specific number code.  The grids  do not follow state or county lines that other USDA crop insurance programs are based upon. (Figure 1.)  The grid locator tool is available at: https://prodwebnlb.rma.usda.gov/apps/prf

Figure 1. Grid locator will enable producers to identify their field locations for their insurance policy. The pin in this example is the Eastern Research Station located in Noble County.

Producers then must select Continue reading Pasture, Rangeland, Forage (PRF) Enrollment Open; a Risk Management Tool Cattlemen Should Consider →

Manage the Stockpile Like it’s Standing Green Money!

– Victor Shelton, NRCS State Agronomist/Grazing Specialist

Stockpiled tall fescue . . . standing green money!

I’ve mentioned before that I’m often lacking one of three things – time, energy or money.  Some days, I believe it is all three.  I’ve had a very challenging year multiple ways but have been lucky to have had timely and sufficient soil moisture for most of the season and that. in itself, creates opportunities.  That said, I apologize for the blessings that others did not receive.

I regret now not measuring growth over the season.  It just didn’t happen.  I know yield wise; it was a phenomenal year.  Regrowth after grazing events was quicker than normal and keeping up with the forage was almost impossible at times.  I have two paddocks that were grazed so fast that you would never know that they were grazed by looking at them.  They continued to be skipped over the season because it was hard enough keeping everything else in check.

Those skipped paddocks will make good, stockpiled forage along with fields that also have enough regrowth to graze again.  We’ve also been blessed this Continue reading Manage the Stockpile Like it’s Standing Green Money! →

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Don’t Let “Feed Price Sticker Shock” Paralyze your Management

– Kevin Laurent – Extension Specialist, Department of Animal and Food Sciences, University of KY

With current feed prices, if there was ever a time to test your hay it is this year!

The ancient Greek philosopher Heraclitus once said, “The only constant in life is change” and boy have things been changing lately. Given all the negativity that seems to catch the headlines, there has been some positive changes in the cattle markets. The late summer price rise in heavy feeders is historically normal. What’s not so normal is heavy feeder prices have held their ground and, in some cases, strengthened as we have entered the fall runs. This contraseasonal move in the market is good news for beef producers, especially for folks backgrounding or preconditioning calves this fall and winter. This recent market move along with a generally favorable market outlook was a one of several areas that Dr. Kenny Burdine covered in his keynote presentation at the recent Stockmanship and Stewardship School in Bowling Green, KY. However, as good and informative as this presentation was, the one statement my good friend Kenny made that stuck with me the most was when he warned producers not to fall victim to “feed price sticker shock” when making management decisions. We all know that feed prices are higher this fall than they were this time last year. But what we need to remind ourselves is that the biology of our cows has not changed since last year, meaning that we still need to provide balanced nutrition for desired outcomes. So how do we overcome “Feed Price Sticker Shock” and avoid management paralysis?

Inventory your feed resources and test your hay/forage. With current feed prices, if there was Continue reading Don’t Let “Feed Price Sticker Shock” Paralyze your Management →