Project Title: “Prediction of Agricultural Losses and Drought Impacts by Meteorological Drought”
Mentor: Jim Stagge, Civil, Environmental, and Geodic Engineering
https://go.osu.edu/presentation_traceeberhardt
https://go.osu.edu/powerpoint_traceeberhardt
In the United States and around the world, the SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) is used to quantify meteorological drought over timescales of months, using precipitation. In this study, SPI ratings are analyzed against drought impacts to determine if certain levels of drought correlate to documented drought impacts, focusing on the Midwestern United States, primarily Ohio, Kentucky, and West Virginia. Agricultural impacts are the primary focus of this study, because these are the most prominent type of drought impacts in states of interest. Impact models are developed for two types impact measures: qualitative drought impacts reported from a variety of news sources, and quantitative data on Ohio crop production from 1961 to 2018. Qualitative impacts are used to estimate the number of agricultural drought impacts per year. Quantitative data used in this study, Ohio crop production, is used to test how yearly variance in crop production is related to drought, measured by the SPI. Because crop production has increased over time due to advances in farming, this analysis first removes the increasing long-term trend to focus on yearly variance due to drought. This analysis will help determine which SPI ratings have the strongest relationship with the occurrence of drought impacts and decreases in agricultural crop production. Overall, this research can help farmers prepare for the impact of drought conditions.