2015 predictions thus far…

So how am I doing thus far on my 2015 predictions?  Am I close?  Way off?  2015 feels pretty much done for me.  Fall is here and then winter and then like hello 2016.

So lets look at what I said and where we are now…

  1. We Believe.
    There is a aura of belief unfolding on campus today.  Its safe to say that commercialization has taken root in the university.  More people believe in the potential of what they’re working on.  We’ll seen even more positive energy toward “we can do it” in terms of ideas to market hustle.  Its across the board from the highest pillars of senior leadership to the deans, chairs and faculty and staff.  And of course the students, always the first to believe I think, they will continue to impress.

    As of August 30th?  – I think this is fairly on target.  I’ve noticed alot more press on campus on innovation to market aspects.  The fact that colleges are thinking in startup weekend and hackathon like events at the leadership level is a big sign.  Also the community is on board.  Plus the university added some nice measures to fuel the fire, Accelerator Awards, etc, all helping.

  2. Medical / IT led innovation will continue to dominate.
    Startup health is just getting up to speed.  2014 was a big year for mindfulness, wearables, software, data analytics, and more when it comes to health care.  2015 will continue to be very loud on the innovation around health.  Between the new Neuromodulation Center to the new James cancer center spinning up, a sea of innovation, opened doors and possibility will follow.  Plus digital health is beginning to cross the threshold in adoption in both practice and common placement with medical centers and in administrative and doc acceptance.  Add the applicability in terms of next generation compliance/adherence and you find a sea of opportunities.  Note many solutions will be more “risk mitigation” orientated.

    As of August 30th?  – Portfolio, plus what press around campus is covering, this is still very much true.  Startups and overall “deals” we’re working on at TCO easily slide over 60% focused on health care technologies and concepts.  This isn’t to say its the total pipeline of ideas in from the colleges/centers etc, its more that the buyers, intersection of interest tends to be leaning in this direction.  And theres multiple initiatives across the state and the region to support this push.  Disrupting health is still and continue to be game on.

  3. In the Groove on Process.
    2014 was an epic year for commercialization and startup process.  The team jelled under new leadership and really pressed into often difficult territory and laid down many processes and norms and procedures on how to do things, how to make things GO.  2015 will see these efforts streamline and get in the groove.  Process is a big part of success when it comes to starting, when it comes to doing, when it comes to alignment and more.  I see us all in the groove for next, let’s do this!  The new Acceleration Award will help many fill in the gap from clinical trials to prototyping, this will compliment general areas of hustle across campus to make, validate, realize and net traction.

    As of August 30th? – Yes but always need more.  Commercialization is more and more like playing a game of “Civilization”, meaning its not enough just to intake IP, evaluate IP, and stage IP for consumption, you also have to show how that consumption could work, then guide those new to consumption what consumption and or the opportunity in that consumption is or could be.  You can’t be a vending machine, it doesn’t work. The region needs more players and you have to help create and educate the players and the could be players at the table to take advantage of the now, the moment, the next.  Thats alot of work.  Thats well beyond the initial charter of the TCO office.  Yet we’re seemingly responsible for the total outcome of success often projected from a range of sources, though its not like we all have exterior commentors.  However, do not be dismayed, this the job you signed up for- and we wouldn’t want it any less.  Being at the cross roads of invention and opportunity is one of the greastest places on campus to be.  Its yours to crave into next.

  4. Collaboration Frontier.
    Bigger and better collaborations are afoot.  Thats not always a good thing as they tend to be well, involved… but I see more incubators, more collaborative partners, more groups unifying for what could be, more and more thinking, more people coming to the table, especially as more believe in the effort, and the end game.

    As of August 30th? – Subtle moves and kinda goes back to #3.  Hasn’t happened on a large level yet.

  5. New IP Frontiers.
    I believe Athletics, Sports Medicine and Arts & Sciences will be new pools of IP frontier.  Not to say its where the big deals will be but these areas will not be “unknown” any more in terms of IP.  Data Analytics will continue to be in the crosshairs as well but it needs time to nurture.  While the demand for Internet of Things is apparently everywhere, I think that area will unfold slowly as well.  Some of the best IP opportunities I see are based around areas the university has extensive “frequency”, by flow, opportunity, context, expertise.  Also what the market thinks is hot NOW tends to be “oh yeah that, we did that like 5 years ago…” meaning the academics and research folks are further in future than you realize.  Like NEXT on campus is likely more Quantum Computing than say IOT, or VR, etc.  Not to say its not there, but the fringe of next isn’t mainstream- IOT is going mainstream, in labs, dude we’re working on warp drive (ok maybe not but some amazing stuff, definitely!).

    As of August 30th? – We’ve barely scratched the surface of athletics IP, and really TCO can’t do everything, we need leadership from that side of the campus to connect and help us rock it, cause there are a few billion ideas in there.  IOT, internet of things did and is taking off at TCO, we often don’t classify the IP like that though I’d say theres 7-12 techs that are solidly in the IOT space, and they all have deals on traction so yeah, thats good.  Nada on quantum computing, thats probably stuck in the research/new frontier, we dont recognize what we’ve done as IP yet.  Same with VR, see little on that front, anything that does pop gets sucked into the open source void, which isn’t to say it has no opportunity but more to say the perception is that is should be free- people forget that many of the valleys greatest startups are built on free models.  Analytics connected to health continues but its mixed- its about the questions and problems and insight you want from that space.  We need more that just tools that are fast, we need stakeholders that have questions, or more so we need pattern sensing AI thats connected to pending regulation, opportunity, or infrastrcture changes coming.

Five, 2015 Predictions for the Central Ohio Startup Scene

  1. Traction and Exits.
    Central Ohio startups formed 3-5 years ago will be more notable, recognizable and piling on the traction front.  Some will be exiting.  Of course we rarely hear about the startups that tried and died.  But I see more talk of traction, more tale of how, the people of Columbus will rally to support and exits, mergers and acquisitions will be afoot.  Some of these starts are down right tactical meaning their time for epic glory is coming, provided their ramen will last.

    As of August 30th?  – Exits haven’t occurred at least to my knowledge, there has been bit ones that I know of but not the ummph or booms we’d like to see and hear about.  Traction is happening for those startups that have received significant funding.  Its been a pretty “steady as she goes” year for Columbus startups.  

  2. City of Design.
    Columbus is booming with agencies.  Columbus has always been a “design” town but it will be more known and notable in 2015 as the many more agencies spin up, mid sized ones expand into larger agencies, and the pool of talent coming out of the schools kicks of more doers, believers, thinkers and so on.  Columbus is becoming a magnet for hip, interesting, arts, maker, doable, hustle.  The frame of “design” is changing as well as it bleeds into any and all biz related the space- software, PR, creative, maker, experience, research, you name it!   How this factors into the startup scene?  Well more shops crafting and coding meaning more code made here for here.  Plus the talent pools and spill overs forming new groups will be continual.

    As of August 30th? – We’ll Columbus is awash of new dev firms, that is true.  But this was more a notion I had when i saw the rise of ad firms and folks like wondersauce coming to town and what not.  I think its not so well baked on my part.

  3. Power Struggle in the Tower of Influence.
    As more people believe there are more to be told the message.  Of course the message varies and we’ll see that unfold in 2015 as the game of influence.  There are new players in town.  Even more to come.  The battle of influence from everything to how to start to why to start is underway, its been brewing for awhile but the game is getting thicker.  We’ll see more events, more conferences, more blogs, more chatter, more well, everything.  Its not just for VC tho, from casual players to private equity, just about everyone is eyeing on what they see as next in Columbus Ohio.  The long game is definitely apparent.  The prize is what’s ahead in 10 years.  2015 will be a good year for opinion and voices on the subject, as the hustler audience doubles so does the demand for worthy content and commentary.  So influence will be unfolding on multiple tiers, incubator, state level, life style, funding, making, retail, you name it, there is room for curation, authority and influence.

    As of August 30th? – Hasn’t happened, most cause there are few challengers to the norm.  

  4. CASH continues to be tight.
    The golden goose of every would be startup is CASH, who can provide it?  Well in 2015, cash will be present but it will still be tight.  Just because Forbes writes an article on Columbus every other month doesn’t mean the midwest just gave us all a blank amex card.  New currency will be passed around from mentorship to space to networking power but CASH will still serve the golden key of survival for many.  Which will make our scene hard to grow within, meaning we’ll be talking out our related states and valley partners to help bridge the valley of death every new business must cross- onward to traction!  The ideas built on transactions today will SKYROCKET in Columbus and serve as early leaders of the space.  The State of Ohio will continue to fuel and encourage the scene as well, and I suspect it will double down in some ways providing more CASH for solid people with ideas that can prove the rainbow of cash on the other side.  More people will turn to crowd funding, angels and more cash enabling ideas to get their start as well.  The big question is whether or not Columbus finds a way to help the big disrupters cross the gap without big cash- which could happen.. if we reduce the impact of where cash goes.  For example the pending tax free zone coming for startups, combined with affordable talent and great ideas and long term players betting on 2025, maybe we can grow that base for the big disrupters.

    As of August 30th?  – True.  Cash continues to be tight for startups.  People continue to tell me this isn’t true, and thats from folks that have money and or wish to communicate that all is well.  Reality is, money is still tight.  The requirements for money are increasing tight if not overly laborious, course its not like i’m giving out funds.  But I see plenty of startups struggle and thats basically the model really, unless you convince others, or do the obstacle course or give away a big chunk of what you’re doing.  Its not just that there’s few cash outlets, there’s few cash prospects on the horizon too.  Everyone credits DRIVE Capital with signaling the new era of VC vesting in columbus but thats pretty much a myth.

    DRIVE is good for the region but it wants overwhelmingly good/obvious/already have traction plays to invest in.  Traction like customers.  DRIVE is growth cash, double down on customer acquisition cash, sizable opportunity with a ball rolling down hill at mach 11 cash.  If you’re starting, you’re on your own in columbus, unless you play startup columbus, and take your lumps like everyone else and or work the system, and or be insanely inventive, or pick a model that doesn’t rely on cash from others.

  5. Foundational Testing.
    With CASH continuing to be challenged and or tight, there will be more foundation testing happening- what the heck is that?  Its basically a means to piece together the fate of a tech/startup without vesting in it.  We’ll see alot of this happening with new incubators spinning up.  It follows along with more people believing as well.  While CASH is tight, hope is boundless and there will be more support (with the hope of influence) to direct the herd of “potentials” into rivers of foundational testing.  This will lead to mixed results.  Testing is good, but so is leaping off the cliff and doing.  Columbus will split between a sea of doers, often insanely crazy or delusional, and later reflected upon as brilliant, to safety net of validation, which can yield good safe results but at what costs?  There is middle ground and we’ll see that play out but get ready for the ride!

    As of August 30th?  – True.  Concept Academy is positioned as Rev1’s gate on this notion of foundational testing.  You favor well in CA and money as a conversation is considered.  I’m continually motivated by the right model for doing a startup, the two sided market is daunting if not impossible in Columbus, the aggerated/organized thing that is yours to organize and improve, i like, the b2b because they better or gov will penalize them, i like as well, the b2c cause like you can and its timely fad, iffy, the b2c because we’re all mobile now, iffy, the b2c cause c wanted b, better.  Finding the model for this town is key to getting funding in this town.  I think MVPs still rule, you gotta show more than a notion of a biz model, you need to show more than a notion for a solid team, you gotta show more than a notion of a concept, you gotta make it.  YOU have to scale it back tho, feel like andre the giant inside but you appear as mouse for the moment.

    Overall, I feel like I’m mixed on predictions.  Most are on target while others are meh.

 

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