Weekly Commodity Market Update

Brownfield’s Weekly Commodity update featuring former OSU Extension Ag Economist Ben Brown.

This Week’s Topics:

  • Market recap
  • U.S. grain stocks adjustments
  • U.S. harvest
  • Corn and soybean storage
  • Reports to watch

Market recap (Changes on week as of Monday’s close):

  • December 2023 corn up $.07 at $4.88
  • December 2024 corn up $.08 at $5.17
  • November 2023 soybeans down $.20 at $12.77
  • November 2024 soybeans up $.06 at $12.67
  • December soybean oil flat at 57.43 cents/lb
  • December soybean meal down $15.50 at $374.30/short ton
  • December 2023 wheat down $.25 at $5.64
  • July 2024 wheat down $.12 at $6.31
  • November WTI Crude Oil down $2.38 at $87.24/barrel

Weekly Highlights

  • For the most recent week of data- US crude oil stocks were down (-91 mil. gals) while US gasoline (+43.1 mil. gal.), Distillate (16.7 mil. gal.) and ethanol (16.7 mil. gal.) were all up.
  • Ethanol production rebounded to 297 million gallons produced on the week using an estimated 99.9 million bushels of corn.
  • US Ag Export sales were up for most commodities week over week including corn, soybeans, grain sorghum, and all wheats. US wheat sales were bullish coming in above pre-report estimates.
  • It was the third consecutive week producers and merchants decreased their net short in Chicago futures and options positions by more than 40%- this week 49%. Producers and merchants also reduced the net long in soybeans for the fourth consecutive week.
  • Managed money traders of Chicago commodities were mixed. They were net buyers of wheats and net sellers of corn and soybeans.
  • Weekly ag export inspections were down week over week for corn and wheat, but up week over week for soybeans and grain sorghum. All were within pre-report trade expectations.
  • US Grain stocks on September 1 were all within trade expectations but toward the top end for soybeans and below the average trade guess for corn. Both corn and soybean stocks were down from September 1, 2022.
  • The quarterly Hogs and Pigs report showed that there were 74.3 million hogs and pigs in the US- up slightly from last September.
  • Soybeans crushed for crude oil in August was 169 million bushels- down from 183 million in July, 175 million last August and pre-report expectations of 171.6 million bushels.
  • Corn crushed in August totaled 490 million bushels- below July 2023 but up 1% from August 2022. Corn for fuel alcohol at 443 million bushels, was down 3% from July but up 3% from last August.
  • US corn harvest is now 23% complete with corn crop conditions showing some slight improvement as combines roll along. Weekly increases were pretty consistent across the country.
  • US soybean harvest is now 23% complete up 11% week over week. Conditions improved on the week after declining last week.
  • 40% of the Winter wheat crop has been planted so far- slightly ahead last years pace but behind the average pace.

Check your corn now for stalk strength

As harvest approaches, its time to check our corn plants for stalk integrity.  Time spent tin the field now, may pay huge dividends later this fall.  As stalk tissue becomes compromised below the main ear the stalk may become brittle or weak and be prone to lodging.

There are a number of plant pathogens that can cause stalk rot including, Anthracnose, Bacteria, Charcoal, Diplodia, Fusarium, Gibberella, and Pythium. Some of these stalk rots have very characteristic symptoms that can help identify the specific problem, while others may require laboratory diagnosis (Table 1).  The Purdue Extension Publication Corn Diseases: Stalk Rot has good images to help identify the major stalk rot diseases. (https://www.extension.purdue.edu/extmedia/BP/BP-89-W.pdf ).

Check field by using the Push or Pinch Test by evaluating 20 plants in at least five random areas in a field.

  • Pinch Test – grab the stalk somewhere between the lowest two internodes and pinch between your fingers to see if the stalk is strong enough to handle the force – if the stalk collapses, it fails.
  • Push Test – push the stalk to a 30-degree angle – if it pops back up when released, it passes the test, if not it fails.

Threshold: 10% or more of the stalks fail then consider field for early harvesting to avoid risk for lodging.

What can you do in the future – management options will depend on the specific disease (see table 1). Production practices that promote good plant health including balanced fertilization, appropriate plant populations, and good water management can reduce stresses that might predispose corn to stalk rot. In addition, these key management tools can help mitigate future stalk rot issues.

  1. Properly diagnosis the stalk rot pathogen.
  2. Select hybrids with resistance if available.
  3. Crop Rotation – rotating to non-host crop will help reduce stalk rot potential in a field. Note that Charcoal rot and Gibberella stalk rot can infect other rotational crops.
  4. Tillage – burying infected crop residue will encourage more rapid desiccation and help reduces risk of overwintering in crop residue.
  5. Good soil drainage and reduced compaction.
  6. Foliar Fungicides – applying foliar fungicides can help protect crop from foliar diseases that could predispose plant to stalk rot when present, but devoid of foliar disease pressure fungicides applications have not consistently been found to help reduce stalk rot.

Ohio Crop Progress

Source: USDA

Crop maturity accelerated under last week’s warm and dry conditions, according to Ben Torrance, State Statistician, USDA NASS, Ohio Field Office. Topsoil moisture conditions were rated 6 percent very short, 49 percent short, and 45 percent adequate. Statewide, the average temperature for the week ending on September 24 was 63.4 degrees, 2.0 degrees above normal. Weather stations recorded an average of 0.09 inches of precipitation, 0.64 inches below average. There were 6.5 days suitable for fieldwork during the week ending September 24.

Last week’s field activities included hay bailing, manure application, lime spreading, and drainage tile installation. Limited instances of tar spot fungus in corn stands were reported in west-central portions of the State. Seventyseven percent of corn was in or past dent, 40 percent was mature, and 2 percent was harvested. Corn for silage was 59 percent harvested. Fifty-two percent of soybeans were dropping leaves. Corn and soybean condition were 72 and 68 percent good to excellent, respectively. Third cuttings of alfalfa hay and other dry hay were 95 and 80 percent complete, respectively. Fourth cuttings of alfalfa hay were 63 percent complete. Winter wheat was 3 percent planted. Pasture and range condition was rated 56 percent good to excellent, down from the previous week.

Weekly Commodity Market Update

Brownfield’s Weekly Commodity update featuring former OSU Extension Ag Economist Ben Brown.

This Week’s Topics:

  • Market recap
  • U.S. harvest overview
  • U.S. wheat planting
  • Ukraine production estimate up
  • The Fed holds interest rates steady… but
  • Reports to watch

Market recap (Changes on week as of Monday’s close):

  • December 2023 corn up $.10 at $4.81
  • November soybeans down $.19 at $12.97
  • October soybean oil down 3.64 cents at 58.75 cents/lb
  • October soybean meal up $1.60 at $392.00/short ton
  • December 2023 wheat down $.02 at $5.89
  • July 2024 wheat up $.03 at $6.43
  • September WTI Crude Oil up $0.36 at $89.62/barrelWeekly Highlights
  • US energy stocks dropped across the board this week: crude oil (-90 million gallons), gasoline (35 million gallons), and distillate supplies (-120 million gallons).
  • Ethanol production dropped 17 million gallons to 288 million gallons on the week- the lowest volume in nearly 5 months.
  • The Federal Reserve kept short term rates at a range between 5.25-5.5 during their September meeting.
  • It was a disappointing week for US ag export sales. Corn and wheats were on the low end of trade expectations while soybean sales were below the most bearish estimate. The deficit for export sales is growing fast.
  • Open interest positions of Chicago commodities were mostly up again this week. Corn, soybeans, soybean meal, and wheats saw increases. Rough rice and soybean oil were down.
  • Similar to last week, producers and merchants were active buyers of Chicago corn on the week decreasing their net short position of futures and options by nearly 42% after 42% the week before. Conversely, managed money traders were net sellers increasing their net short by nearly 10,000 positions. For soybeans, producers and merchants sold off 17.6% of their net long position with money managers also shedding 28,000 positions.
  • Friday afternoon’s USDA Cattle on Feed Report showed all US cattle on feed as of September 1 at 11.094 million head, or 97.8% of last year. The estimate was just above the average trade estimate of 97.7%. August placements were higher while marketings were lower.
  • US agricultural export inspections were up week over week for soybeans and wheat, but down for corn and grain sorghum. All were within trade expectations.
  • US corn harvest is now 15% complete with corn crop conditions showing some slight improvement as combines roll along. While it is unlikely that precipitation is having an impact on crop conditions at this point in the season- yield monitors (or reports from monitors) might. Illinois and Iowa both saw noticeable increases.
  • US soybean harvest is now 12% complete up 7% week over week. Conditions declining only slightly.
  • 26% of the Winter wheat crop has been planted so far- slightly behind last years pace and the average pace. Plantings are being the most in the eastern corn belt due to slow fall harvest. This is where most of the soft red winter wheat is planted.

Weekly Commodity Market Update

Brownfield’s Weekly Commodity update featuring former OSU Extension Ag Economist Ben Brown.

This Weeks Topics:

  • Market recap
  • USDA WASDE review
  • Tightness in soybean market
  • Soybean crush down
  • Harvest picks up
  • Reports to watch

Market recap (changes on week as of Monday’s close):
• December 2023 corn down $.14 at $4.71
• November soybeans down $.53 at $13.16
• October soybean oil up 1.05 cents at 62.39 cents/lb
• October soybean meal down $15.60 at $390.40/short ton
• December 2023 wheat up $.07 at $5.91
• July 2024 wheat up $.03 at $6.40
• September WTI Crude Oil up $3.41 at $89.28/barrel

Continue reading

Ohio Crop Progress

Source: USDA
Moderate temperatures and mostly clear skies throughout Ohio provided farmers with favorable conditions to conduct pre-harvest activities, according to Ben Torrance, State Statistician, USDA NASS, Ohio Field Office. Continued lack of significant precipitation resulted in an increase in abnormally dry soil moisture levels. Topsoil moisture conditions were rated 6 percent very short, 37 percent short, 56 percent adequate, and 1 percent surplus. Statewide, the average temperature for the week ending on September 17 was 62.3 degrees, 3.1 degrees below normal. Weather stations recorded an average of 0.25 inches of precipitation, 0.59 inches below average. There were 6.1 days suitable for fieldwork during the week ending September 17.
While row crop progress remained behind the five-year average, favorable crop condition ratings exceeded previous year averages. Sixty-seven percent of corn was in or past dent and 22 percent was mature. Corn for silage was 42 percent harvested. Twenty-seven percent of soybeans were dropping leaves. Corn and soybean condition were 76 and 71 percent good to excellent, respectively. Third cuttings of alfalfa hay and other dry hay were 92 and 71 percent complete, respectively. Fourth cuttings of alfalfa hay were 56 percent complete. Winter wheat was 1 percent planted. Pasture and range condition was rated 63 percent good to excellent, down from the previous week.

Field Observations Thru September 15

Corn

Growth & Development

Most of the corn that I have seen this week is in either the late R4 (Dough) or the R5 (Dent) growth stage.  A few fields are approaching the final growth stage R6.

R6 – Physiological Maturity

  • Occurs approximately 66‐70 days after silking.
  • R6 is reached  after the milk line disappears and the starch has reached the base of the kernel.
  • Kernels have reached maximum dry weight.
  • Kernel moisture is  about 35% at physiological maturity.
  • Black layer occurs after physiological maturity and  serves as a visual verification that the plant is mature. Black layer typically occurs at 30%  moisture but varies by hybrid and environment.
  • Husks and many of the leaves are no longer green, but the stalk may be green.
  • Only external stress can reduce yield now,  such as plant lodging or insect feeding.

Scouting

At this growth stage look for:

  • Ear rots.
  • Stalk rots.
  • Anthracnose top dieback.
  • Stalk lodging.
  • Abnormal ear fill which identifies periods of stress.
  • Weed escapes (especially Palmer and Waterhemp).

This is also a good time to get an accurate yield estimate.

Soybeans

Growth & Development

Soybeans are continuing to mature.  Last week I highlighted the R7 growth stage, the last growth stage is R8 full maturity.

R8 – Full Maturity

  • 95% of pods reached mature color
  • Mature pod color does not necessarily indicate that beans are ready to harvest
  • 35% grain moisture in freshly matured pod
  • 15% within another 5 to 10 days
  • Below-optimum plant stands cause more branching, low pod heights & can delay maturity
  • Above-optimum plant stands increase lodging.

Scouting

At this growth stage look for:

  • Green stem syndrome.
  • Lodging
  • Sprouting seeds
  • Pod shattering
  • Weed escapes (especially Palmer and Waterhemp).

This is also a good time to check soybean yield potential.

County Rainfall Update

Ohio Crop Progress

Source: USDA

Last week’s warm days and mostly fair weather supported crop progress but left some counties excessively dry, according to Ben Torrance, State Statistician, USDA NASS, Ohio Field Office. Topsoil moisture conditions were rated 9 percent very short, 19 percent short, 68 percent adequate, and 4 percent surplus. Statewide, the average temperature for the week ending on September 10 was 72.5 degrees, 4.6 degrees above normal. Weather stations recorded an average of 0.27 inches of precipitation, 0.27 inches below average. There were 5.6 days suitable for fieldwork during the week ending September 10.

Ninety-five percent of corn was in or past dough, 53 percent was in or past dent, and 11 percent was mature. Corn for silage was 27 percent harvested. Eight percent of soybeans were dropping leaves. Corn and soybean condition were 82 and 75 percent good to excellent, respectively. Third cuttings of alfalfa hay and other dry hay were 88 and 58 percent complete, respectively. Fourth cuttings of alfalfa hay were 38 percent complete. Pasture and range condition was rated 68 percent good to excellent, down from the previous week.

Weekly Commodity Market Update

Brownfield’s Weekly Commodity update featuring former OSU Extension Ag Economist Ben Brown.

This Weeks Topics:

  • Market recap
  • Corn and soybean acreage
  • Corn and soybean production
  • Reports to watch

Market recap (Changes on week as of Monday’s close):
– December 2023 corn up $.05 at $4.85
– November soybeans up $.06 at $13.69
– October soybean oil down 2.63 cents at 61.34 cents/lb
– October soybean meal up $5.80 at $406.00/short ton
– December 2023 wheat down $.14 at $5.84
– July 2024 wheat down $.12 at $6.37
– September WTI Crude Oil up $2.13 at $85.87/barrel

Weekly Highlights

  • US crude oil stocks were down again last week continuing a trend over the last month. Globally production cuts by the top exporters are being offset by other global producers and lower global demand.
  • Ethanol production was basically flat on the week- up 2 million gallons. Gasoline demand was up on the week while ethanol stocks were flat suggesting that ethanol exports have been rather sluggish in August.
  • It was the last week of export sales of the 2022/23 marketing year for corn and soybeans with net cancelations on of corn and 5.7 net sales for soybeans. However, new crop 2023/24 sales finally showed some life.
  • Open interest positions of Chicago futures and options were largely up:  Chicago wheats-flat, corn- +1.4%, soybeans- +2.2%, cotton- +10.4%, and rough rice- +14.7%.
  • Managed money traders bought back 168 futures and options positions to slightly decrease their net short position in that commodity, while also selling off 6,565 contracts of corn increasing the net short, and also selling 8,175 contracts of Chicago soybeans decreasing the net long for that commodity.
  • US ag export inspection data was mixed this week- for feed grains it was a relatively strong week with corn, grain, and wheats with all reaching multi-month highs. Soybean inspections were the lowest since early August.
  • Crop conditions continue to deteriorate. Corn was down 1 point to 337, but up 1 point from last year. Soybeans fell 3 points to 337 and are 10 below last year. Cotton conditions fell a point to 275 and are also down 10 points relatively to last year.
  • Five percent of the US corn crop is harvested- compared to 4% on average. Eight percent of the US cotton crop has been harvested. Forty-five percent of the US rice crop has been harvested compared to an average of 35%.

Field Observations Thru September 8

Corn

Growth & Development

Most of the corn that I have seen this week is in either the R4 (Dough) or the R5 growth stage.

R5 – Dent

  • The second to last stage of corn development.
  • R5 (dent) occurs approximately 31‐33 days after silking.
  • Kernels are dented in at the top with the “milk line” separating the liquid and
    solid (starch) portions.
  • Within R5, kernels are often staged according to the progression of the milk line; i.e. ¼, ½, and ¾.
  • At the beginning of R5, kernels have 60% moisture content.
  • Stresses will reduce kernel weight at this time.

Scouting

I have heard a wide range for projected corn yields this year.  The Yield Component Method is the most widely used procedure for estimating corn yield.  While  you are out checking potential corn yields, also keep an eye out for:

  • Ear rots.
  • Stalk rots.
  • Anthracnose top dieback.
  • Stalk lodging.
  • Abnormal ear fill which identifies periods of stress.
  • Weed escapes (especially palmer & waterhemp).

Soybeans

Growth & Development

Soybeans are continuing to mature.  Last week I highlighted the R6 growth stage  the next stage is R7 the last growth stage prior to maturity.

R7 – Begining Maturity

  • One mature-colored pod anywhere on the main stem.
  • Yellow pods are moving toward maturity.
  • Tan, brown or tawny pods (depending on variety) signal physiological maturity.
  • Seeds at the R7 growth stage are at approximately 60% moisture.

Scouting

  • Foliar diseases – Sudden Death Syndrome, White Mold, and Frogeye Leaf Spot.
  • Insect feeding – Grasshoppers.
  • Weed escapes (especially Palmer and Waterhemp).

Estimating soybean yields

It is much more difficult to accurately predict soybean yield.  The process to estimate soybean yields can be found here.

County Rainfall Update