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Weekly Commodity Market Update

Brownfield’s Weekly Commodity update featuring former OSU Extension Ag Economist Ben Brown.  This week Will and Ben discuss USDA’s updated acreage expectations.

This Week’s Topics:

  • Market recap
  • Sideways commodity trading
  • U.S. Jobs & job openings report updates
  • Crude oil stocks building
  • April WASDE pre-report expectations
  • Planting progress
  • Reports to watch

Market recap (Changes on week as of Monday’s close):

  • May 2024 corn flat at $4.35
  • December 2024 corn down $.01 at $4.73
  • May 2024 soybeans down $.04 at $11.81
  • November 2024 soybeans up $.02 at $11.84
  • May soybean oil down 0.34 cents at 47.90 cents/lb
  • May soybean meal up $2.60 at $336.00/short ton
  • May 2024 wheat up $.08 at $5.65
  • July 2024 wheat up $.08 at $5.80
  • May WTI Crude Oil up $2.43 at $85.61/barrel

Weekly Highlights

  • The February JOLTS (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics) report showed job opening in February totaled 8.8 million matching expectations, while the number of people quitting jobs rose slightly to 3.5 million.
  • US crude oil stocks excluding the strategic petroleum reserve increased 135 million gallons last week after being up 133 million gallons the week prior. Conversely gasoline stocks declined 179 million gallons and distillate stocks decreased 43 million gallons. Crude Oil prices broke above $90/ barrel last week on middle east tensions but broke lower to start the week on reports of de-escalation.
  • Ethanol production increased to 315 million gallons on the week- up from 310 the week prior and 295 the same week in 2023. Ethanol production continues to run at historically high levels. Gasoline demand was up 6%. Ethanol stocks rose 14 million gallons.
  • Open interest of Chicago grains and oilseeds was up for wheats (+3.6%), Corn (+1.9%), soybeans (+3.1%), Soybean Oil (+2.5%), soybean meal (+2.6%), and Cotton (+0.8%), while being down for rough rice (-0.7%).
  • Managed money traders reduced their net shorts in Chicago wheats 2,322 contracts while increasing their net shorts of corn- 7,826 contracts and soybeans 3,476 contracts. Money managers do not seem concerned about being historically short in corn and soybeans.
  • Export sales of US grains and oilseeds were rather weak for the week ending March 28th. Corn, soybean, soybean oil, grain sorghum, and wheats were all down week over week. Soybean sales of 7.1 million bushels were below all pre-report estimates.
  • Export inspections were mixed. Corn export inspections of 55.9 million bushels exceed all expectations, wheat inspections of 18.3 million bushels were on the top end of expectations while soybean inspections of 17.8 million bushels were the lowest since early September.
  • Planting progress was slow with several broad storms moving through the Midwest. Corn planting increased 1% to 3%, which is slightly ahead of the 3-year average of 2%. Rice planting was up 9% to 23% while cotton planting was reported at 4% up from 3%.
  • The winter wheat conditions rating was unchanged at 348 (a perfect score is 500). Up from 276 last year. Kansas at 338 was up from 220 last year. Oklahoma at 365 was up from 260 last year and Test at 324 was up from 250 last year.
  • The March Job Reports showed nonfarm payroll in the US at 303,000 up from 270,000 in February and analyst expectations of 200,000.
  • The US unemployment rate also fell to 3.8% down from 3.9% and stayed below 26th month in a row, the longest stretch since the 1960s.

Weekly Commodity Market Update

Brownfield’s Weekly Commodity update featuring former OSU Extension Ag Economist Ben Brown.  This week Will and Ben discuss USDA’s updated acreage expectations.

This Week’s Topics:

  • Market recap
  • What’s ahead for corn futures
  • USDA grain stocks & prospective plantings review
  • Corn, soybean acreage
  • Drop in principal acreage
  • Corn usage
  • Reports to watch

Market recap (Changes on week as of Monday’s close):

  • May 2024 corn down $0.01 at $4.35
  • December 2024 corn up $.01 at $4.74
  • May 2024 soybeans down $.16 at $11.85
  • November 2024 soybeans down $.10 at $11.82
  • May soybean oil down 0.47 cents at 48.24 cents/lb.
  • May soybean meal down $6.00 at $333.40/short ton
  • May 2024 wheat up $.06 at $5.57
  • July 2024 wheat up $.05 at $5.72
  • May WTI Crude Oil up $1.65 at $83.18/barrel

  • Weekly Highlights

  • Consumer sentiment climbed to a 2 ½ year high as American’s express increased confidence that inflation will continue to ease and reduce the financial strain on households.
  • Consumer spending in February rebounded after a sluggish start to the year as household spending rose 0.8% in February to market the biggest increase in 13 months. Economists had anticipated 0.5%.
  • US crude oil stocks, excluding the strategic petroleum reserve, increased 133 million gallons on the week. Gasoline stocks increased 55 million gallons while distillate stocks fell 50 million gallons. US gasoline demand was down 1% on the week.
  • Ethanol production increased just slightly to 310 million gallons produced on the week- up from 308 million the week before and 295 million the same week last year. With the higher ethanol production and lower gasoline demand- ethanol stocks increased just slightly on the week indicating a solid week of ethanol exports.
  • Grain crushed for ethanol through February now totals 2,714 million bushels- up 166 million bushels over the same period last year.
  • USDA’s planting intentions report indicated US producers will plant just over 90 million acres of corn in 2024- down 1.8 million acres from analyst expectations ahead of the report. Soybean acreage of 86.510 compared to 86.530 million in expectations. Principal crop acres were down 6.3 million acres. Grain stocks all increased year over year but were as expected.
  • Open interest of Chicago futures and options positions increased for Chicago corn (0.9%), soybeans (2.8%), Soybean oil (0.3%), and cotton (0.7%) while falling for wheats (-1.5%), soybean meal (-0.9%) and rough rice (-6%).
  • Managed money traders increased their net shorts of Chicago wheats (16,313 contracts) and Chicago corn (8,742 contracts) while shrinking their net short of soybeans (13,559 contracts). Producers and merchants were big sellers of soybeans while buying back corn and wheats.
  • Export sales of US grains and oilseeds were mixed: corn sales of 47.5 million bushels were on the high side of expectations and wheat sales of 12.5 million bushels were above all expectations. Soybean sales of 9.7 million bushels were half of the week prior and below all trade expectations.
  • Export inspections of US grains and oilseed to international markets were supportive on the most recent week. Corn exports of 56.4 million bushels came in above all pre-report expectations and a marketing year high while wheat exports were on the high side of expectations. With strong exports the corn deficit remained unchanged at 22 million bushels.
  • The First Crop Progress report of the year showed US corn planted at 2%- the same as last year. Cotton planted at 3% comparted to 4% last year.
  • The initial winter wheat conditions score of 348 compares to 279 last year and a 3-year average of 313. (500 is a perfect score).

Weekly Commodity Market Update

Brownfield’s Weekly Commodity update featuring former OSU Extension Ag Economist Ben Brown.

This Week’s Topics:

  • Market recap
  • Soybean market continues to find support
  • Potential acreage shifts
  • Planting discussion
  • Fed to meet, interest rates in balance
  • Reports to watch

U.S. corn acreage could come in higher than expected

Market recap (Changes on week as of Monday’s close):
– May 2024 corn down $0.04 at $4.36
– December 2024 corn down $.02 at $4.70
– May 2024 soybeans up $.07 at $11.87
– November 2024 soybeans up $.07 at $11.80
– May soybean oil up 2.11 cents at 48.70 cents/lb
– May soybean meal down $6.20 at $331.90/short ton
– May 2024 wheat down $.04 at $5.42
– July 2024 wheat down $.02 at $5.57
– May WTI Crude Oil up $4.46 at $81.60/barrel

Weekly Highlights

  • Initial jobless claims last week of 209,000 were down from expectations of 218,000 and 210,000 the week prior.
  • The Producer Price Index jumped 0.6% in February- the largest monthly gain since last August. This was above expectations of 0.3% rise in PPI.
  • Weekly CTFC data showed that open interest in Chicago Futures and Options was up across the board for the second consecutive week. Chicago Wheats (1.7%), corn (2.4%) and beans (2.6%).
  • Managed money traders increased their net short of Chicago Wheats 7,992 contracts while also decreasing their large net short of Chicago Corn 40,867 contracts and Chicago soybeans 16,862 contracts. Net gains for corn and soybean oil were much larger than expected by daily trade estimate, with soybeans close, while Chicago wheat more negative than expected.
  • US Crude oil stocks decreased for the first time in seven weeks- falling just slightly by 65 million gallons. Gasoline stocks fell much further- down 238 million gallons to extend the tightening to six consecutive weeks. Distillate fuel stocks were up just slightly by 37 million gallons. Gasoline demand was flat on the week after being up 6% week prior.
  • Ethanol production pulled back to 301 million gallons produced on the week- down 10 million gallons. It was also the lowest volume in 2 ½ months. It is expected 101.4 million bushels of corn were used in the process. With flat gasoline consumption and slightly lower ethanol production- ethanol stocks pulled back just slightly.
  • The National Oilseed Processors Association reported their members crushed 186.2 million bushels of soybeans in February, a new monthly record for February and above the most bullish pre-report estimate. Soybean oil use in February of 2,027 million pounds was also a new record for the month.
  • US export sales last week were all within expectations but showed weekly increases for corn and soybean meal with weekly decreases for soybeans, soybean oil, grain sorghum, and wheats. Corn was on the higher end of expectations with soybeans on the lower end.
  • Weekly US grain and oilseed export inspections were mixed last week. Everything was within expectations but corn was on the high side of expectations while wheats were on the low side.
  • USDA reported a two-point increase in Kansas winter wheat ratings this week, to 55% good/excellent, TX up 2% to 46% good to excellent; OK ratings feel four points to 61% good to excellent while CO rose 9% to 65% good to excellent.

Weekly Commodity Market Update

Brownfield’s Weekly Commodity update featuring former OSU Extension Ag Economist Ben Brown.

This Week’s Topics:

  • Market recap
  • Crop market continues general fall
  • Added trade support?
  • USDA Ag Outlook Forum bearish
  • Reports to watch

This week Will and Ben track falling crop prices and where they might be headed.
Market recap (Changes on week as of Monday’s close):

  • March 2024 corn down $0.12 at $4.20
  • December 2024 corn down $.08 $4.62
  • March 2024 soybeans down $.08 at $11.85
  • November 2024 soybeans down $.09 at $11.59
  • March soybean oil down 1.45 cents at 45.99 cents/lb.
  • March soybean meal up $3.50 at $350.00/short ton
  • March 2024 wheat down $.27 at $5.66
  • July 2024 wheat down $.29 at $5.66
  • March WTI Crude Oil up $.86 at $77.97/barrel

Weekly Highlights

  • Two separate measures of inflation came in hotter than anticipated. The Consumer Price Index came in at 3.1% year over year vs expectations of 2.9%. Similarly, the Producer Price Index came in at 0.9% month over month vs expectations of 0.1% increase and -0.1% in January.
  • Weekly CTFC data showed that open interest in Chicago Futures and Options was down 2.3% for Chicago Wheats, up 2.1% for corn and up 1.4% for soybeans.
  • Managed money traders continue to sell Chicago corn and soybean contracts. The net short for corn increased 16,597 contracts which took them over the philosophical threshold of 300,000 contracts. The record was set in April 2019 at just over 322,000 contracts. Managed money was also a seller of Chicago soybeans by 4,200 contracts to 134,500 contracts. The record for soybeans was May 2019 at just under 190,000 contracts.
  • Crude oil stocks excluding the strategic petroleum reserve increased 505 million gallons for the week leaving them 7% below last year. Gasoline stocks declined 153 million gallons but 2% higher than this same week last year. Distillate stocks were down 80 million gallons and are 5% higher than last year. West Texas Intermediate Oil prices are creeping back up to $80 per barrel after reaching the low $70 range in early February.
  • Ethanol production increased again this week to 318 million gallons. Corn used for ethanol production exceed the same period last year by 97 million bushels. Ethanol stocks increased 43 million gallons.
  • The National Oilseed Processors Association reported soybean crush numbers that disappointed the market. Soybean crush for January came in at 185.8 million bushels- four million less than the trade had anticipated, although still a January monthly record. Even though soybean crush was lower, soybean oil stocks also grew and were above all expectations implying January soybean oil use was rather bearish.
  • At USDA’s annual Agricultural Outlook Forum, the agency released their first balance sheets for 2024/25 marketing year. The numbers were bearish to new crop supplies but not as bearish as many in the industry were anticipating.
  • US grain and oilseed export sales were mixed last week. For corn- export sales of 51.4 million bushels were a 9-week high while soybean sales of 13.0 million bushels and wheat sales of 12.8 million bushels were both on the low end of expectations. There were net cancelations of grain sorghum sales amounting to 100,000 bushels for the current year and cancelations of all 2.4 million bushels of 2024/25 sales. There are no grain sorghum commitments for next year at this point after reaching 7.5 million bushels a few weeks ago.

Weekly Commodity Market Update

Brownfield’s Weekly Commodity update featuring former OSU Extension Ag Economist Ben Brown.

This Week’s Topics:

  • Market recap
  • Penciling out profit
  • South American production
  • South American second crop planting
  • Managing production cost
  • Corn acreage to fall
  • Reports to watch

This week Will and Ben look at falling crop prices across the board and what it’ll take to stabilize.

Market recap (Changes on week as of Monday’s close):

  • March 2024 corn down $0.05 at $4.40
  • December 2024 corn down $.01 $4.74
  • March 2024 soybeans down $.29 at $11.94
  •  November 2024 soybeans down $.17 at $11.80
  • March soybean oil down 2.61 cents at 45.55 cents/lb
    – March soybean meal down $1.50 at $354.30/short ton
  • March 2024 wheat down $.06 at $5.93
  • July 2024 wheat down $.03 at $6.09
  • March WTI Crude Oil up $2.13 at $76.78/barrel

Weekly Highlights

  • US Gross Domestic Product grew 3.3% in the fourth quarter of 2023- down from the 4.9% in the third quarter but well above the 2% growth expected. Taking out the sharp recovery after the pandemic in 2020. The 3rd and 4th quarters are the strongest two quarters back-to-back since 2014.
  • Core Inflation at 0.2 month over month was right inline with expectations and core inflation year over year of 2.6% was as expected.
  • The housing market continues to run hot- with New home sales at 664,000 up from last month and expectations and pending home sales up to a huge number of 8.3% in December- the largest number since June 2020.
  • It was another fairly risky week for US commodities. Open interest positions increased across the board for Chicago wheat (2.7%), Corn (5.7%), soybeans (6.5%), soybean oil (3.7%), soybean meal (3.4%), cotton (10.7%), and rough rice (0.4%).
  • Producers and Merchants increased their net positions of corn adding to the small net long while also adding net positions of soybeans shrinking their small net short. Producers and Merchants sold off net wheat contracts adding to the net short in Chicago wheat.
  • Managed money traders sold off another 4,743 contracts of Chicago corn while selling 15,045 contracts of soybeans to increase the net short there as well. Managed accounts added 26,518 contracts of cotton futures to take the small net short into a net long.
  • US crude oil stocks excluding the strategic petroleum reserve were down another 388 million gallons while gasoline stocks increased 206 million gallons on a 5% week over week reduction in gasoline demand.
  • As expected, US ethanol production pulled back to 240 million gallons- down from 310 million gallons the week prior due to the cold snap in the US. Even with the drastic drop in ethanol production-ethanol stocks increased due to the drop in gasoline demand and blending.
  • Exports sales were lower this week nearly across the board and bearish for soybeans. Only SRW wheat posted week over week gains.
  • Weekly grain and oilseed export inspections for the week were neutral for corn and soybeans, while bearish for wheats and grain sorghum. Corn, HRW and HRS wheats were the only commodities up week over week.

Weekly Commodity Market Update

Brownfield’s Weekly Commodity update featuring former OSU Extension Ag Economist Ben Brown.

This Week’s Topics:

  • Market recap
  • Consumer sentiment at two-year high
  • Oilseed outlook
  • Managed money profit taking
  • Managing when to sell
  • Record December soybean crush
  • Reports to watch

This week Will and Ben discuss marketing crops around profit taking

Market recap (Changes on week as of Monday’s close):

  •  March 2024 corn down $0.02 at $4.45
  • December 2024 corn down $.06 $4.75
  • March 2024 soybeans down $.04 at $12.23
  • November 2024 soybeans down $.04 at $11.97
  • March soybean oil down 2.19 cents at 48.16 cents/lb
  • March soybean meal down $7.50 at $355.80/short ton
  • March 2024 wheat flat at $5.96
  • July 2024 wheat down $.07 at $6.12
  • March WTI Crude Oil up $2.02 at $74.67/barrel

Weekly Highlights 

  • The December National Oilseed Processors Report showed their members crushed a record 195.3 million bushels of soybeans in December- up from 189 in November and 177.5 million last December. Cumulative soybean crush is running 40 million bushels of last years pace with USDA expected an 88-million-bushel year over year increase.
  • The US economy continues to show resistance. The Home Builder Confidence Index reported a reading of 44 increased from 39 in December and analysist expectations of 39. This signal that while contracting its not contracting as fast. Lower mortgage rates boosted confidence.
  • Consumer sentiment jumped to the highest level since July 2021 reflecting optimism regarding slowing inflation and rising incomes.
  • The US labor market remains tight as jobless claims fall under 200,000 and lowest level in 16 months. Employers may be adding fewer workers but they are holding on to the ones they have and paying higher wages.
  • It was a fairly risk on week for US commodities. Open interest positions increased for Chicago wheat (5.7%), Corn (8.1%), soybeans (4.9%), soybean oil (5.6%), soybean meal (6.2%), and cotton (2.7%) while rough rice fell (2.1%).
  • Producers and merchants increased their futures and options positions of Chicago corn more than 25,000 contracts with managed money increasing their net short position 29,819 contracts. The managed money net short for corn is quickly reaching a resistance level close to the largest net short in 15 years.
  • Managed money for soybeans also increased the net short 45.5 thousand contracts.
  • US crude oil stocks excluding the strategic petroleum reserve were down 105 million gallons while gasoline stocks increased 125 million gallons on a slight week over week reduction in gasoline demand.
  • US ethanol production pulled back to 310 million gallons but well above the 296 million gallons last year. Ethanol stocks have built to a 10 year high. The cold weather will likely slow US ethanol production over the next several weeks. Higher natural gas prices and lower ethanol prices are cutting into ethanol plant margins.
  • Export sales were bullish for corn and wheat last week while neutral for beans and grain sorghum. Sales were higher week over week across the board.
  • Weekly grain and oilseed export inspections were rather neutral. Corn, soybeans, and grain sorghum were all down week over week, while total wheats were slightly higher.
  • Friday’s USDA Cattle on Feed as of January 1 report showed all cattle on feed at 102.1% of last year.

Weekly Commodity Market Update

Brownfield’s Weekly Commodity update featuring former OSU Extension Ag Economist Ben Brown.

This Week’s Topics:

  • Market recap
  • Corn, soybean production estimates drop
  • Chinese soybean stock changes
  • Wheat exports
  • Record soybean crush
  • Reports to watch

Market recap (Changes on week as of Monday’s close):

  • December 2023 corn up $.02 at $4.90
  • December 2024 corn up $.01 at $5.17
  • November 2023 soybeans up $.22 at $12.86
  • November 2024 soybeans up $.05 at $12.55
  • December soybean oil up 2.97 cents at 55.90 cents/lb
  • December soybean meal up at $390.20/short ton
  • December 2023 wheat up $.05 at $5.77
  • July 2024 wheat down $.06 at $6.34
  • November WTI Crude Oil up $1.10 at $85.70/barrel

Weekly Highlights

  • US crude oil stocks excluding the strategic petroleum reserve increased 427 million gallons on the week while gasoline, distillate, and ethanol stocks all declined.
  • Ethanol production declined just slightly week over week- down 2 million gallons to 295. However, US gasoline consumption was up nearly 7% during the first week over October. With the increase in use and the moderate decline in production ethanol stocks declined 15 million gallons.
  • It was a neutral week for US ag export sales. Corn sales were roughly half what they were the week prior but slightly above all expectations while soybeans also cleared rather low expectations. Soft red winter wheat export sales continue to support the wheat complex on global price competitiveness.
  • USDA cut both US corn and soybeans national average yields in October by 0.8 and 0.5 bushels respectively. For both, the decrease in production was either partially or fully offset with declines in demand categories.
  • The most surprising number in Thursday Supply and Demand Report came from the global soybean balance sheet where a drop in Chinese beginning stocks and an increase in expected feed use helped create a bullish global ending stocks picture.
  • Open interest in Chicago corn and soybean futures and options positions increased week over week. Producer and merchants doubled their short position of corn contracts while slightly selling soybean contracts.
  • Managed money traders bought back 46.7 thousand positions of Chicago corn to shrink their net short- this was someway surprising after daily estimates had estimated they would increase their net short.
  • USDA Ag Export Inspections were bullish for soybeans while bearish for corn. At nearly 74 million bushels, soybean exports were the highest since early January.
  • The National Oilseed Processors Association reported their members crushed 165.5 million bushels of soybeans in September- setting a new record for the month of September. Soybean oil stocks fell to its lowest level since December 2014.
  • Harvest production in the US moved along this week- corn was up 11% to 45% and soybean harvest was up 19% to 43%.

Weekly Commodity Market Update

Brownfield’s Weekly Commodity update featuring former OSU Extension Ag Economist Ben Brown.

This Week’s Topics:

  • Market recap
  • Crude oil price swings
  • USDA report preview
  • Corn ending stocks
  • U.S. export positioning
  • Reports to watch

 

Market recap (Changes on week as of Monday’s close):

  • December 2023 corn flat at $4.88
  • December 2024 corn down $.01 at $5.16
  • November 2023 soybeans down $.13 at $12.64
  • November 2024 soybeans down $.17 at $12.50
  • December soybean oil down 3.5 cents at 53.93 cents/lb
  • December soybean meal down flat at $374.60/short ton
  • December 2023 wheat up $.08 at $5.72
  • July 2024 wheat up $.09 at $6.40
  • November WTI Crude Oil down $2.64 at $84.60/barrelWeekly Highlights
  • It was announced last week that the Argentina Government will expected their “soy dollar” program through October 25
  • US Crude oil stocks minus the strategic petroleum reserve fell another 93 million gallons this week along with distillate stocks, while gasoline stocks were up 272 million gallons.
  • Ethanol production was flat at 297 million gallons produced on the week using an estimated 99.9 million bushels of corn.
  • It was a solid week for agricultural export sales last week with corn and soybeans at the top end of their respective expectations and highest weekly volumes since April and January, respectively.