– James Mitchell, Livestock Marketing Specialist, University of Arkansas
Cattle and beef prices are sharply higher through the first half of 2025. Oklahoma City steer prices for 500-600 lb calves have averaged $347/cwt year-to-date, up 21% from the same period in 2024 and more than double the 2019-2023 average. Feeder prices (700-800 lb) are averaging $281/cwt, a 17% year-over-year increase. Fed cattle prices in the five-area region are averaging $215/cwt, up 16% from last year, while the Choice boxed beef cutout has averaged $342/cwt—13% higher than 2024 and close to 31% above the five-year average.
Cattle inventories remain the fundamental driver. The January 1 Cattle report showed total U.S. cattle inventories at 86.7 million head, the smallest since 1951. Beef cow numbers declined again to 27.9 million head, and calf crop estimates suggest fewer feeder cattle will be available for the rest of the year. These supply constraints are supporting prices across market segments.
Trade policy and animal health have added new layers of risk to markets. There were disruptions to cattle imports from Mexico last fall and again in May following detections of New World screwworm in regions beyond previously established biological barriers. These detections triggered new restrictions and surveillance measures. The U.S. announced a phased border reopening late last month, but feeder cattle trade flows are still subject to further changes. Markets have had to sort through the Trump administration’s 10% baseline tariff and the back-and-forth on additional tariffs and retaliatory measures. The lack of clarity around future trade policy has made it difficult for market participants to plan around future trade expectations.
Geopolitical tensions are also contributing to market risk. The recent escalation between Israel and Iran has implications for global energy markets and volatility, which can spill over into agricultural markets. The potential for related price shocks remains a concern as we head into the second half of the year.
The outlook for the remainder of 2025 remains positive. Cattle supplies are historically tight, and demand has remained resilient despite broader macroeconomic concerns. Trade restrictions with Mexico will impact feeder cattle availability for feedlots. Cattle and beef markets will be sensitive to trade policy, global conflicts, and broader economic conditions. These factors underscore why it is important to manage price risk even when prices are historically high.
