– Brenda Boetel, Professor and Extension Economist, Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Wisconsin-River Falls

Last week appeared to bring no movement toward a resolution regarding the partial government shutdown. As such, several reports were not available, including the World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates, Quarterly Grain Stocks, Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings and weekly export sales. Next week will see the absence of the Livestock Slaughter and Cattle on Feed report, and if this shutdown goes into February, the semi-annual Cattle report will be affected.

The markets will continue to make assumptions about the content of these missing reports. The longer the lack of information prevails, the greater the market correction may be when the reports resume, especially if the reports say something different than the market assumed. The cattle markets care about last week’s missing reports, because Continue reading →

– Derrell Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension

A major winter storm this past week extended in a belt across the middle of the country from Denver east to the mid-Atlantic coast. Heavy snow hit parts of feedlot country across eastern Colorado, Kansas, southeastern Nebraska, southern Iowa and the eastern Corn Belt. Much of Nebraska and the northern Plains along with the Texas panhandle were spared the worst of the snow but rain has created wet, sloppy conditions in many places that will impact cattle performance in feedlots and in the country. Recent weather may delay fed cattle marketing enough to help support fed cattle prices or push prices higher. Whether or not weather impacts are widespread enough to noticeably impact overall market conditions, cattle producers in many areas face significant management headaches due to the weather.

Winter weather often impacts feedlot performance and efficiency. Feedlots typically post the lowest seasonal average daily gains (ADG) for cattle marketed in March to May which reflects cattle fed over the previous four to six months. This likely includes the negative impacts of Continue reading →

– Dr. Kenny Burdine, Livestock Marketing Specialist, University of Kentucky

The first of the year is typically a good time to review cattle markets and think about the upcoming year. While there will always be debate about which is worse, drought or mud, there was little question about which was the greater issue in 2018. One doesn’t have to drive around rural Kentucky very long to see multiple examples of challenges created by excessive rain. Pasture growth was good well into fall, but muddy conditions brought its own set of challenges. And, winter feeding certainly tends to put those challenges on showcase.

Despite showing a lot of resilience through summer, calf prices fell sharply in the fourth quarter of 2018. The state average price for a 550 lbs steer fell by roughly $12 per cwt from August to December, settling in the low $140’s to end the year. This was approximately $8 per cwt lower than December 2017. Figure 1 tells the story best. Calf prices in 2018 actually averaged Continue reading →

– Stephen R. Koontz, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Colorado State University

We start the New Year with the federal government 17 days (as of this writing on January 7) into the shutdown. So far, not much appears to be missed in terms of publicly available market information. My regular consumption of AMS reports has not much changed. (Of course, Colorado continues to report no fed cattle prices because of confidentially requirements.) Then again, many commodity markets are inactive over the past two weeks. But that will not be the case as we proceed through week three and for certain into week four of the shutdown. I will miss the monthly WASDE next week, the monthly Cattle on Feed report the week after that, the accumulated weekly livestock slaughter data, and the trade data from Commerce. To date, the substantial volatility that has been seen in the equity markets has not Continue reading →

– Dr. Andrew Griffith, Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Tennessee

As the livestock economist for Extension at the University of Tennessee, opportunities to forecast cattle prices are never in short supply. Thus, there is always a demand for high quality and accurate cattle price projections. The primary problem is with the supply side, and the problem is that the price forecast changes from one day to the next and even more so from week-to-week or month-to-month.

Given that this article is often written a couple of weeks before it is published, any and all cattle price projections may be of little use by the time it reaches the mailbox or the inbox. However, cattle prices are not the only factor impacting profitability. It may also be beneficial to discuss the 2019 University of Tennessee Extension beef cattle budget and expected costs.

Given the variability and seasonal trends of cattle prices throughout the year, it is necessary to supply an expected annual average cattle price based on given heifer, steer and slaughter cow weights. Based on the 2019 budget, slaughter cows (1,200 pounds) are expected to average $50 per hundredweight, while 550 pounds steers and 520 heifers are expected to average Continue reading →